MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Babeuf]

Thanks for putting a poll in the field cinyc!

If we take the trend in the Google surveys seriously, then it seems like the attacks on Quist have made an impact. Unfortunate, but not surprising.

Or Google Surveys are trash.  Consider that Castro ran a Google Survey immediately after my Quist +17 likely outlier, and found the race tied.

Yeah, this is likely the case. The "if" in my statement was doing a lot of work.

[cinyc]

Thanks for putting a poll in the field cinyc!

If we take the trend in the Google surveys seriously, then it seems like the attacks on Quist have made an impact. Unfortunate, but not surprising.

Or Google Surveys are trash.  Consider that Castro ran a Google Survey immediately after my Quist +17 likely outlier, and found the race tied.

Yeah, this is likely the case. The "if" in my statement was doing a lot of work.

This poll at least lines up with the recent Gravis poll, if you trust Gravis.  Again, a big if there. 

We need better pollsters to poll this race.

[Kantakouzenos]

MT Treasurer (or anyone else from Montana for that matter), sorry if you answered or commented on this recently, but how well do you think Pianoforte and Quist have been running their campaigns?  Any big mistakes or good choices either of them are making?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Emerson Poll shows Gianforte up 15 points, 52-37.

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/856865798517870595

[Gass3268]

Emerson is trash, but this probably means Gianforte is up in the high single digits.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I never understood people treating this as a tossup. Bullock is a much better candidate than Quist and he narrowly won

Gianforte just lost the gubernatorial race and Quist is a state celebrity who's running as a populist

[rob in cal]

  Lets assume the Emerson poll is somewhat off and Gianforte is in fact ahead in the high single digits. Shouldn't the race be closer than this based on what we've seen in Georgia and Kansas?

[Pandaguineapig]

  Lets assume the Emerson poll is somewhat off and Gianforte is in fact ahead in the high single digits. Shouldn't the race be closer than this based on what we've seen in Georgia and Kansas?

In Kansas Brownback has a 15% approval rating and the Democrats dumped millions into georgia only to match Clinton's performance

[Figueira]

Eh, Emerson can probably be ignored.

  Lets assume the Emerson poll is somewhat off and Gianforte is in fact ahead in the high single digits. Shouldn't the race be closer than this based on what we've seen in Georgia and Kansas?

In Kansas Brownback has a 15% approval rating and the Democrats dumped millions into georgia only to match Clinton's performance

Matching Clinton is impressive considering that it's always been a more Republican district downballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

  Lets assume the Emerson poll is somewhat off and Gianforte is in fact ahead in the high single digits. Shouldn't the race be closer than this based on what we've seen in Georgia and Kansas?

In Kansas Brownback has a 15% approval rating and the Democrats dumped millions into georgia only to match Clinton's performance

The point about Kansas is well taken, but the jury is still out on Georgia.  Comparing an 18-person jungle primary to a final election is apples and oranges.  Let's see whether Ossoff beats Clinton's percentage in June before making judgments on this one.

[cinyc]

  Lets assume the Emerson poll is somewhat off and Gianforte is in fact ahead in the high single digits. Shouldn't the race be closer than this based on what we've seen in Georgia and Kansas?

MT-AL is more rural than GA-6 or (probably) even KS-4.  Rural voters swung Trump in 2016, and didn't abandon the Republican candidate in KS-4 by nearly a much as Wichita urbanites/suburbanites.  Plus, Gianforte doesn't have the baggage of being tied to an unpopular Republican governor.

[Beet]

If the Emerson poll is close to being right, it really would put a big hole in claims that Bernie would have somehow done dramatically better than Hillary in places like Montana.

[Figueira]

If the Emerson poll is close to being right, it really would put a big hole in claims that Bernie would have somehow done dramatically better than Hillary in places like Montana.

Why don't you donate to Gianforte then if you're so intent on relitigating the primaries.

[Kantakouzenos]

Emerson is a weird poll, like really weird, but it's not good.  The good news I guess is that it seems dems have been over performing their polling, but probably not enough to overcome high single digit leads. 

[cinyc]

Emerson is a weird poll, like really weird, but it's not good.  The good news I guess is that it seems dems have been over performing their polling, but probably not enough to overcome high single digit leads.  

Yeah.  Emerson provided the raw data, along with the cross-tabs.  Assuming Age Group 1 are the 18-34s, they polled a whopping 18 LVs out of the 648 or so respondents (after weighting).  I'm not sure exactly how they weighted, but given that 18-34s represent 123/648 in the presumably weighted cross-tabs, the 18-34s must have a weight of about 7.

So yes, Emerson's poll skewed old.  I think it also skewed heavily Western Montana in the formulation we've been using.  If I've done the county translations right, Western Montana is actually more pro-Gianforte than Eastern Montana in this poll, at least in the raw data.

Best I can make heads or tails of the Emerson numbers, the raw data was only Gianforte +4 (for the highly likely to votes).  They must have really weighted the data to get to Gianforte+15 out of that.

[GlobeSoc]

Emerson is a weird poll, like really weird, but it's not good.  The good news I guess is that it seems dems have been over performing their polling, but probably not enough to overcome high single digit leads. 

Yeah.  Emerson provided the raw data, along with the cross-tabs.  Assuming Age Group 1 are the 18-34s, they polled a whopping 18 LVs out of the 648 or so respondents (after weighting).  I'm not sure exactly how they weighted, but given that 18-34s represent 123/648 in the presumably weighted cross-tabs, the 18-34s must have a weight of about 7.

So yes, Emerson's poll skewed old.  I think it also skewed heavily Western Montana in the formulation we've been using.  If I've done the county translations right, Western Montana is actually more pro-Gianforte than Eastern Montana in this poll.

Best I can make heads or tails of the Emerson numbers, the raw data was only Gianforte +4 (for the highly likely to votes).  They must have really weighted the data to get to Gianforte+15 out of that.

uhh... I wouldn't be surprised if this poll is just junk then.

[McGovernForPrez]

Emerson is a weird poll, like really weird, but it's not good.  The good news I guess is that it seems dems have been over performing their polling, but probably not enough to overcome high single digit leads. 

Yeah.  Emerson provided the raw data, along with the cross-tabs.  Assuming Age Group 1 are the 18-34s, they polled a whopping 18 LVs out of the 648 or so respondents (after weighting).  I'm not sure exactly how they weighted, but given that 18-34s represent 123/648 in the presumably weighted cross-tabs, the 18-34s must have a weight of about 7.

So yes, Emerson's poll skewed old.  I think it also skewed heavily Western Montana in the formulation we've been using.  If I've done the county translations right, Western Montana is actually more pro-Gianforte than Eastern Montana in this poll.

Best I can make heads or tails of the Emerson numbers, the raw data was only Gianforte +4 (for the highly likely to votes).  They must have really weighted the data to get to Gianforte+15 out of that.

What were the raw totals for the 18-34 age group? Considering they only polled 18 voters they probably had an unrepresentative sample to begin with.

[cinyc]

What were the raw totals for the 18-34 age group? Considering they only polled 18 voters they probably had an unrepresentative sample to begin with.

9-6 Gianforte, with 3 Undecideds.

To be fair, even my recent Google Survey with more younger voters showed Gianforte up among at least the 18-24s (Quist only had a slight lead among the 18-34s, combined).  And I don't like unskewing polls.  Emerson's polls almost always skew old because I think they just poll landlines.  Yet they had a decent track record in 2016, despite their methodological shortcomings.

[cinyc]

By the way, even though the poll skewed heavily toward Western Montana, Emerson seems to have controlled for that when weighting the results.

[RFayette]

Emerson Poll shows Gianforte up 15 points, 52-37.

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/856865798517870595

Gianforte is great; it was a bummer to see him lose to Bullock, but this is awesome news.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson is a weird poll, like really weird, but it's not good.  The good news I guess is that it seems dems have been over performing their polling, but probably not enough to overcome high single digit leads. 

Emerson is the McDonald's of the polling industry. For $600, they'll poll anything

But do you get fries with it?

[McGovernForPrez]

What were the raw totals for the 18-34 age group? Considering they only polled 18 voters they probably had an unrepresentative sample to begin with.

9-6 Gianforte, with 3 Undecideds.

To be fair, even my recent Google Survey with more younger voters showed Gianforte up among at least the 18-24s.  And I don't like unskewing polls.  Emerson's polls almost always skew old because I think they just poll landlines.  Yet they had a decent track record in 2016, despite their methodological shortcomings.

Normally I don't like unskewing polls either, but Emerson is a crap tier pollster so I don't feel bad questioning their samples.

[Classic Conservative]

The crowds at the Gianforte/Trump Jr. rallies seemed very large.

[rob in cal]

   You'd think there would be more polls of this race as its pretty easy to poll the district since its the whole state.

[Figueira]

   You'd think there would be more polls of this race as its pretty easy to poll the district since its the whole state.

Fun fact, it's the most populous congressional district in the country.