MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Pericles]

This seemed like it would go narrowly to the GOP but with Trump's recent meltdown I'm not so sure.

[Brittain33]

It would certainly be ironic if this race were headed for a reasonable Republican win until the Comey news in the final week caused an upset.

[Adam Griffin]

Based on the absentee results from the previous page:

[ajc0918]

Why would Quist be gaining in this race? Obviously Trump is in meltdown but would that change enough voters minds? I thought Pianoforte was up by 7ish in the polls?

[MT Treasurer]

Why would Quist be gaining in this race? Obviously Trump is in meltdown but would that change enough voters minds? I thought Pianoforte was up by 7ish in the polls?

We don't know whether Quist is gaining in this race, but the polls showing Republicans up by a massive amount were always junk. Pianoforte had the higher name recognition due to his gubernatorial campaign and Democrats always come home in the end. This happens in almost every election in MT (a reverse VA, if you want), there is nothing surprising about this.

[Gass3268]

Why would Quist be gaining in this race? Obviously Trump is in meltdown but would that change enough voters minds? I thought Pianoforte was up by 7ish in the polls?

We don't know whether Quist is gaining in this race, but the polls showing Republicans up by a massive amount were always junk. Pianoforte had the higher name recognition due to his gubernatorial campaign and Democrats always come home in the end. This happens in almost every election in MT (a reverse VA, if you want), there is nothing surprising about this.

If you believe Eric Erickson, he said polling has moved hard recently. Take it for what it's worth.

[MT Treasurer]

Why would Quist be gaining in this race? Obviously Trump is in meltdown but would that change enough voters minds? I thought Pianoforte was up by 7ish in the polls?

We don't know whether Quist is gaining in this race, but the polls showing Republicans up by a massive amount were always junk. Pianoforte had the higher name recognition due to his gubernatorial campaign and Democrats always come home in the end. This happens in almost every election in MT (a reverse VA, if you want), there is nothing surprising about this.

If you believe Eric Erickson, he said polling has moved hard recently. Take it for what it's worth.

If I had to take a guess, he probably saw that Gravis poll showing Quist down 8 and then another poll showing him within 2 or 3 points.

[Bacon King]

I just found this poll it's old and a google survey but is it any good

https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=fotq254zv734n2hrx76hgxtbjm

May 8-9th

Quist: 34.5%
Gianforte: 29.8%
Libertarian: 6.8%
not voting 28.9%

of course the error bars are like ten points wide

[Chief Justice Keef]

The specials held in the shadow of stupid watergate will be disasters for the republicans!

I feel like this shift has more to do with AHCA than Russiagate, but regardless, seems like Quist is definitely gaining.

[GlobeSoc]

The specials held in the shadow of stupid watergate will be disasters for the republicans!

I feel like this shift has more to do with AHCA than Russiagate, but regardless, seems like Quist is definitely gaining.

That was just me doing à Krazenism, except with a democratic bias.

[Gass3268]

The specials held in the shadow of stupid watergate will be disasters for the republicans!

I feel like this shift has more to do with AHCA than Russiagate, but regardless, seems like Quist is definitely gaining.

Agreed that Trumpcare plays better in these more populist areas, but Russiagate is obviously playing a part.

[Kantakouzenos]

Do mail in ballots in Montana lean Republican as they typically do elsewhere in the country do they have no lean/ a Dem lean typically?  I want to know what to expect when I start seeing results on election day.

[MT Treasurer]

Do mail in ballots in Montana lean Republican as they typically do elsewhere in the country do they have no lean/ a Dem lean typically?  I want to know what to expect when I start seeing results on election day.

No, the first returns always show Democrats with a massive lead. In last year's election, Bullock was up 13 points with 15% of the vote in on election day, IIRC, and he only won by 4 in the end. In 2012, he also had a massive lead in the early returns, but only won by 1.5 in the end. A similar thing happened in the Senate races in 2006 and 2012.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not sure if this has been reported yet, or if will have any meaningful effect: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/gianforte-lafargeholcim-isis_us_591c710be4b0ed14cddb53fa?wgo

"Montana GOP Candidate Owns Stake In Company Accused Of Paying Off ISIS"

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[Adam Griffin]

Do mail in ballots in Montana lean Republican as they typically do elsewhere in the country do they have no lean/ a Dem lean typically?  I want to know what to expect when I start seeing results on election day.

No, the first returns always show Democrats with a massive lead. In last year's election, Bullock was up 13 points with 15% of the vote in on election day, IIRC, and he only won by 4 in the end. In 2012, he also had a massive lead in the early returns, but only won by 1.5 in the end. A similar thing happened in the Senate races in 2006 and 2012.

Another question based on the map I posted earlier: is it common for people in larger/Democratic counties and/or urban areas to be slower at returning their ballots? The percentage returned in almost all of the populated and Democratic areas is behind the rest of the state as of a couple of days ago.

[cinyc]

I think any outcome from Quist +5 to Pianoforte +5 is possible, but I don't think Republicans should give up on this race yet.

Cinyc, can you send me a link of your GCS poll so that I can follow the results? I feel like I'm going to go crazy if I don't see a public poll before election day, haha.

I haven't put any GCS poll into the field yet.  I'm waiting for the weekend to start it.

I just found this poll it's old and a google survey but is it any good

https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=fotq254zv734n2hrx76hgxtbjm

May 8-9th

Quist: 34.5%
Gianforte: 29.8%
Libertarian: 6.8%
not voting 28.9%

of course the error bars are like ten points wide

That sounds like Castro's survey, which we discussed in detail last week.

[Bacon King]

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

[The Other Castro]

Yeah Bacon and cynic, that's my poll from earlier that someone from the Bernie subreddit found and posted, and added to the Wikipedia page.

[GlobeSoc]

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

You couldn't make this up if you tried

[cinyc]

As Quist Breaks Out, Decades Old Lawsuit Sheds Light on Montana Democrat’s Marriage and Career
Montana Democrat's account of surgery, preexisting condition challenged by doctor, legal records show
Washington Free Beacon/Brent Scher
May 16, 2017 2:00PM

Another oppo dump on Quist.  The doctor in the medical malpractice case Quist has used as part of his narrative about why he didn't pay his taxes alleged that Quist had genital herpes, tested positive for tuberculosis, and smoked pot.

[The Other Castro]

That's just...mean.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

As Quist Breaks Out, Decades Old Lawsuit Sheds Light on Montana Democrat’s Marriage and Career
Montana Democrat's account of surgery, preexisting condition challenged by doctor, legal records show
Washington Free Beacon/Brent Scher
May 16, 2017 2:00PM

Another oppo dump on Quist.  The doctor in the medical malpractice case Quist has used as part of his narrative about why he didn't pay his taxes alleged that Quist had genital herpes, tested positive for tuberculosis, and smoked pot.

oh my god, this is despicable stuff.

this is going to backfire imo. this comes across as being a petty and insignificant smear at a time when serious issues vital to the national interest are being discussed. so what if quist has herpes?

[This account no longer in use.]

As Quist Breaks Out, Decades Old Lawsuit Sheds Light on Montana Democrat’s Marriage and Career
Montana Democrat's account of surgery, preexisting condition challenged by doctor, legal records show
Washington Free Beacon/Brent Scher
May 16, 2017 2:00PM

Another oppo dump on Quist.  The doctor in the medical malpractice case Quist has used as part of his narrative about why he didn't pay his taxes alleged that Quist had genital herpes, tested positive for tuberculosis, and smoked pot.

Before this, I just thought that maybe Gianforte was an unfortunate victim of Murphy's Law. This, however, shows that he's willing to go to despicable depths in order to win. This has made me support Quist more, if anything, and I hope that the voters of Montana will agree with me.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Yeah, that's pretty disgusting.  And if people think pot usage is still a detriment to people running for office... just lol.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'm surprised they were even allowed to disclose sensitive medical information like that.