MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[cinyc]

I'm surprised they were even allowed to disclose sensitive medical information like that.

Quist sued the doctor who performed his gall bladder surgery for malpractice.  Pre-existing conditions are arguably relevant to that.  It's all in the court filings.  Quist tried to get the allegations thrown out, but it was never resolved because he and the doctor settled the lawsuit.

The other takeaway from the article is that Quist claims the allegedly botched gall bladder surgery ruined his music career, but the defense's expert argued otherwise - and his own expert was so inept that he never heard Quist play in person.

This surgery is a part of Quist's narrative - he skipped paying his taxes because of the surgery.  But the article points out that he and his wife earned six figures in 1994.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

I'm not a fan of Gianforte or anything, but this is a story with an alarming headline, with pretty pedestrian details. LafargeHolcim is a fairly major player in manufacturing globally, and Gianforte owned under USD50,000 (which, to an individual of Gianforte's wealth is a pittance) in shares in his and his wife's IRA.

In fact, I used to own shares in Dodge and Cox's International Fund, which holds a significant stake in LafargeHolcim, so Gianforte's holdings could theoretically also be through a fund.

Unsurprisingly, the details at the Huffpo's "report" are sparse, so I can't be sure, not that one should expect better from such a trash-tier site.

And yes, it was also stupid when R's did this "six degrees of Isis" to Hillary.

[Kantakouzenos]

Yeah, that's pretty disgusting.  And if people think pot usage is still a detriment to people running for office... just lol.

I think it would be a bigger red flag is a musician from the 70's wasn't smoking pot.  At the very least it shouldn't hurt him with his base.

[KingSweden]

The specials held in the shadow of stupid watergate will be disasters for the republicans!

I feel like this shift has more to do with AHCA than Russiagate, but regardless, seems like Quist is definitely gaining.

That was just me doing à Krazenism, except with a democratic bias.

Heh that's not bad

[MT Treasurer]

Another question based on the map I posted earlier: is it common for people in larger/Democratic counties and/or urban areas to be slower at returning their ballots? The percentage returned in almost all of the populated and Democratic areas is behind the rest of the state as of a couple of days ago.

Good question, I must admit that I'm not very familiar with the pattern here. I guess it makes sense that counties like Missoula are lagging behind the rest of the state. When I calculated the percentages the last time (five days ago), Missoula was at 30%, now they're at 51%. I wouldn't read too much into this. Overall, turnout seems to be really high.

Here are the updated numbers so far (as of 5/16/2017) - sorry if you've already posted these:

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You can also find the relevant data (absentee ballots by county) here.

[cinyc]

The Lee Newspapers' version of the story doesn't mention the alleged herpes.  Quist himself had no comment (though his campaign spokesman sent an e-mail), and cancelled an interview with them after learning he'd be asked about his marijuana use and medical history.  From the Helena Independent Record:

Quist declines to discuss personal marijuana use, health record

[Ebsy]

The Lee Newspapers' version of the story doesn't mention the alleged herpes.  Quist himself had no comment (though his campaign spokesman sent an e-mail), and cancelled an interview with them after learning he'd be asked about his marijuana use and medical history.  From the Helena Independent Record:

Quist declines to discuss personal marijuana use, health record

As usual, carbetbagging GOPers and their media supporters can't run on the issues so they must resort to smear campaigns. Shameful!

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Considering that one of Mission Mountain Wood Band's iconic songs was "Take a Whiff on Me" I think any montanan that is surprised by Quist's use of softer stuff should have their head examined.

[Figueira]

Is anyone seriously surprised that a Montanan folk singer born in 1948 has smoked marijuana?

[The Other Castro]

Here's the DCCC talking points for the race:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[The Other Castro]

Also, immediately before this election on Thursday, we'll have:

1. A new CBO score early in the week showing likely over 24 million more uninsured
2. A Comey hearing on Wednesday potentially implicating Trump on obstruction of justice
3. Whatever other bombshells come out between now and then.

[Holmes]

Also, immediately before this election on Thursday, we'll have:

1. A new CBO score early in the week showing likely over 24 million more uninsured
2. A Comey hearing on Wednesday potentially implicating Trump on obstruction of justice
3. Whatever other bombshells come out between now and then.

A Drmocrat with less skeletons than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with all this.

[GlobeSoc]

Also, immediately before this election on Thursday, we'll have:

1. A new CBO score early in the week showing likely over 24 million more uninsured
2. A Comey hearing on Wednesday potentially implicating Trump on obstruction of justice
3. Whatever other bombshells come out between now and then.

A Drmocrat with less skeletons than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with all this.

Really, Quist may be dragged across in spite of his campaign by the gop as a whole being a dumpster fire right now

[Holmes]

Hopefully.

[Mr. Smith]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

You're not the only one.  I still think this is Tilt R at least.

[Skill and Chance]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

You're not the only one.  I still think this is Tilt R at least.

I think I agree.  Quist has had so much baggage come out that he probably needs a favorable environment on the level of the New Deal Dem waves at this point.

[MT Treasurer]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

You're not the only one.  I still think this is Tilt R at least.

I think I agree.  Quist has had so much baggage come out that he probably needs a favorable environment on the level of the New Deal Dem waves at this point.

Eh, Pianoforte has been attacked pretty relentlessly as well. Also, this stuff is nothing that would sink a campaign. Honestly, I don't know any Republican from here who is taking this race for granted or who believes that Republicans have this in the bag.

National Republicans are now pouring late cash into the race:

Anyway: A Republican-friendly group is rushing a last-minute $200,000 ad buy onto the Montana airwaves

[Virginiá]

I think I agree.  Quist has had so much baggage come out that he probably needs a favorable environment on the level of the New Deal Dem waves at this point.

Honestly, everything happening with Trump/national Republicans might be enough to drag Quist over the finish line if the race is indeed close. All this oppo stuff could hurt but at the same time, it's an extremely bad time for Republicans to be competing in an election.

[GlobeSoc]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

You're not the only one.  I still think this is Tilt R at least.

I think I agree.  Quist has had so much baggage come out that he probably needs a favorable environment on the level of the New Deal Dem waves at this point.

Eh, Pianoforte has been attacked pretty relentlessly as well. Also, this stuff is nothing that would sink a campaign. Honestly, I don't know any Republican from here who is taking this race for granted or who believes that Republicans have this in the bag.

National Republicans are now pouring late cash into the race:

Anyway: A Republican-friendly group is rushing a last-minute $200,000 ad buy onto the Montana airwaves

I'm kind of amused by when outside groups spend ad money in retail states. I mean, sure, but wouldn't this be better spent in GOTV, especially at a time where recent events could decrease GOP turnout?

[Skill and Chance]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

You're not the only one.  I still think this is Tilt R at least.

I think I agree.  Quist has had so much baggage come out that he probably needs a favorable environment on the level of the New Deal Dem waves at this point.

Eh, Pianoforte has been attacked pretty relentlessly as well. Also, this stuff is nothing that would sink a campaign. Honestly, I don't know any Republican from here who is taking this race for granted or who believes that Republicans have this in the bag.

National Republicans are now pouring late cash into the race:

Anyway: A Republican-friendly group is rushing a last-minute $200,000 ad buy onto the Montana airwaves

To clarify, I would say there is a 20ish% chance he could win, but if it does it would mean that the national environment at the moment is as good for Dems as the early 1930's.  Actually, 1866 with the parties reversed would a better comparison as that was much more about presidential scandals/incompetence and less about the economy.

But I'm not convinced we're there and Dems now have quite a history of getting too cocky about Trump backlash.

[cinyc]

To clarify, I would say there is a 20ish% chance he could win, but if it does it would mean that the national environment at the moment is as good for Dems as the early 1930's.  Actually, 1866 with the parties reversed would a better comparison as that was much more about presidential scandals/incompetence and less about the economy.

But I'm not convinced we're there and Dems now have quite a history of getting too cocky about Trump backlash.

There doesn't need to be a 1930's like environment for a Democrat to win a statewide race in Montana.  Montana has a history of electing some statewide Democrats.  Quist's chances of winning are far higher than 20%.  There's a decent chance he can pull this out - probably not quite 50%, but close.

[The Other Castro]

"One source familiar with polling of the race, in fact, says his lead is as small as five points.

'Quist has done a good job feeding an image as a Montana outsider, contrasted with the Jersey billionaire who wants to sell off public lands,' said one national Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about party strategy."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article151135317.html

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

[mattocaster6]

Gap is closing quite considerably on PredictIt (can't link as am new)