MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[cinyc]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

When do you think you'll release it, Monday next week?

[cinyc]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

When do you think you'll release it, Monday next week?

When it's done, which is usually in 2-4 days after it is put in the field.  If I start the poll on Saturday, probably Monday or Tuesday.  If I start it on Sunday, probably Tuesday or Wednesday.

I haven't decided which day to put it into the field yet.  I do want to make sure that I get at least one weekday poll day, though, as the weekend and weekday Internet audiences might be different.

[cinyc]

Gravis doesn't have any more polls coming out of the MT-AL special election:
https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/865008631296663552

[The Other Castro]

Just two weeks ago, PredictIt prices for this race were Gianforte leading Quist 92-8 in odds. Right now, Gianforte's lead is down to just 65-38.

[windjammer]

Updating my prediction following Trump's recent scandals:
Gianforte +4

[Shadows]

Our-Revolution small donors funding bomb !

New reports were due at the FEC over the weekend detailing both candidates' fundraising between April 1 and May 5, during which time Quist raised $2.3 million, spent $2.4 million, and had $669,000 left ahead of the May 25 special election for Montana's lone congressional seat. Gianforte, meanwhile, brought in just $624,000, shelled out $1.5 million, and had $826,000 in his bank account.​

Since the start of the campaign in early March, Quist has raised $3.3 million—a stunning sum for such a short time and in such a cheap state—while Gianforte has taken in $2.3 million. The only reason he's been able to keep pace was by lending his campaign an additional $1 million during the most recent reporting period. However, Gianforte's also benefitted from far more outside spending: A recent tally by reporter Mike Dennison of local news station KTVH found that Republican groups, led by the Congressional Leadership Fund, have pumped $3.9 million to aid Gianforte while Democrats have spent just $632,000.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/5/16/1662607/-Morning-Digest-Rob-Quist-leads-Greg-Gianforte-in-fundraising-for-Montana-s-House-special-election



BTW Rob Quist has 2 new ads on Montana's public lands, one where he walks to Greg Gianforte's lands - Both blast Gianforte ! They are named  - Place & Against


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5BaRkt30e8&index=6&list=PLESaX5w4uV1XkMohdjLnbIXxNc4MRnAXo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRMO-xjcmFw&index=7&list=PLESaX5w4uV1XkMohdjLnbIXxNc4MRnAXo

[Shadows]

In a new ad released Monday, Montana Democrats attacked Republican House candidate Greg Gianforte for trying to hide his support for the deeply unpopular health care bill passed this month by the U.S. House of Representatives. The ad cuts together clips of local TV news reports about Gianforte’s changing stance on the bill, along with ominous piano music. Less than one-third of the American public favors the health care bill, according to a HuffPost/YouGov survey published last week. A Fox News poll found similar results.

http://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/montana-rob-quist-greg-gianforte-health-care_us_5919c48ce4b0031e737f5a64

Fantastic ad Titled "Two" highlighting Gianforte's stances on AHCA & that he is thankful that he got a tax cut on the backs of pre-existing conditions people !


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbvSz1hJsQA

Btw Quist has managed to counter the gun thing well, his Defend ad has 59K views while Gianforte's ad has 14K views - Big difference !

[Shadows]

Campaigning 15-hour days, Quist got a push into politics from governor Schweitzer,  "Rob, you can do this. Who better than you to represent the state of Montana? You've been doing this all your life." Tester gave a shout-out at the annual Mansfield Metcalf Democratic Party dinner. "Stand up, Quist – would ya stand up? I want you to look at this guy," "He's a real Montanan, with real Montana values."  Quist says, "I've got guns that are much older than the number of years Gianforte has been in the state."

Gianforte's religious views are extreme. He's a creationist, and his foundation paid to install the tyrannosaurus exhibit at a local biblical "museum" that purports the Earth is only 6,000 years old and that dinosaurs not only lived among humans but were also passengers on Noah's ark. In a 2015 speech, he declared that "the concept of retirement is not biblical," pointing to the example of Noah. "How old was Noah when he built the ark? Six hundred. He wasn't, like, cashing Social Security checks. He wasn't hanging out. He was working."


http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-democrats-battle-for-montana-w482375

[MT Treasurer]

Are you done repeating these talking points again? Or is the Quist campaign paying you for this?

[_]

Campaigning 15-hour days, Quist got a push into politics from governor Schweitzer,  "Rob, you can do this. Who better than you to represent the state of Montana? You've been doing this all your life." Tester gave a shout-out at the annual Mansfield Metcalf Democratic Party dinner. "Stand up, Quist – would ya stand up? I want you to look at this guy," "He's a real Montanan, with real Montana values."  Quist says, "I've got guns that are much older than the number of years Gianforte has been in the state."

Gianforte's religious views are extreme. He's a creationist, and his foundation paid to install the tyrannosaurus exhibit at a local biblical "museum" that purports the Earth is only 6,000 years old and that dinosaurs not only lived among humans but were also passengers on Noah's ark. In a 2015 speech, he declared that "the concept of retirement is not biblical," pointing to the example of Noah. "How old was Noah when he built the ark? Six hundred. He wasn't, like, cashing Social Security checks. He wasn't hanging out. He was working."


http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-democrats-battle-for-montana-w482375

Gianforte will probably join the Freedom Caucus as his views align with them - What a stupid guy & religious extremist !

I don't care about campaign slogans/attacks, I care about the results of the election, go away I want polls.

[Shadows]

Are you done repeating these talking points again? Or is the Quist campaign paying you for this?

Receiving millions, but on a more serious note, would like to see Quist win !

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rob Quist can do this!

[The Other Castro]

Quist announced that his campaign has raised a total of more than $5 Million.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^^ Since you're clearly at it again, I'd like a response to this:

Wulfric, do even know what socialism is? Define it in a sentence or two without hitting up Google or Wikipedia.

As I'm referring to Socialism by Association here, not Socialism by Admission, I will refer to my previously stated definition:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quist qualifies under 1).

[The Other Castro]

Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

I voted for Bernie in the primary. Am I a socialist?

Also, this is strange:

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Sr GOP operative, tracking the two specials, notably more concerned about MONTANA than GEORGIA.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/865262696522014720

[cinyc]

Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

I voted for Bernie in the primary. Am I a socialist?

Also, this is strange:

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Sr GOP operative, tracking the two specials, notably more concerned about MONTANA than GEORGIA.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/865262696522014720

I would be more concerned about an election being held next week than an election being held next month, too.  There's less time to gin up support.

[_]

Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

I voted for Bernie in the primary. Am I a socialist?

Also, this is strange:

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Sr GOP operative, tracking the two specials, notably more concerned about MONTANA than GEORGIA.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/865262696522014720

By Dwarven's Definition, yes, though that is rather faulty a definition, because a lot of people voted for Bernie over Clinton because he wasn't a corrupt establishment neoliberal.  Also the GOP should worry more about Montana, Gianforte can always blow it again, and Montana has been far more open then Georgia to electing Democrats.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The GOP should be more concerned about this race than about GA-6. Montana has been a swing state for non-presidential elections for a very long time, while GA-6 has yet to actually elect a democrat. Plus, Ossoff is just a standard democrat with no ties to socialism.

[The Other Castro]

Some Nate Cohn thoughts on this:

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn
If the GOP is actually (I don't buy it) more concerned about MT than GA, that says much more about how bad it must be in MT than GA.

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn
We know *a lot* about this GA race. At best for GOP it's a true toss up. So if they're more worried about MT...

[MT Treasurer]

As of 5/17 (vs. the day before):

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 58.9% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 58.3% of mail-ins returned (+1.8 )

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 54.7% of mail-ins returned (+3.5)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 65.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 63.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.6)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 53.4% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 67.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 60.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 61.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.9)

Statewide: 59.6% of mail-ins returned

[cinyc]

As of 5/17 (vs. the day before):

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 58.9% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 58.3% of mail-ins returned (+1.8 )

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 54.7% of mail-ins returned (+3.5)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 65.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 63.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.6)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 53.4% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 67.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 60.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 61.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.9)

Statewide: 59.6% of mail-ins returned

When is the deadline for receiving mail-in ballots?  Does it all have to arrive by mail, or are there places people can deposit them on election day, like in Oregon?

[Holmes]

Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

I voted for Bernie in the primary. Am I a socialist?

Also, this is strange:

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Sr GOP operative, tracking the two specials, notably more concerned about MONTANA than GEORGIA.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/865262696522014720

I would be more concerned about an election being held next week than an election being held next month, too.  There's less time to gin up support.

I agree. The dumpster fire is going on now and likely will still be next week, whereas things will have calmed down in a month's time, hopefully (for our sanity). But Ossoff is a much better candidate than Quist, so who knows.

[mattocaster6]

Confirmed on their Twitter, Gravis WILL be releasing another poll before election day, they suggest it's likely to show the race tightening even further, perhaps even with Quist ahead.