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| | |-+  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 94692 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #1025 on: May 19, 2017, 12:19:01 am »
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House Majority Pac (D) is making a last minute $25K TV ad buy for Montana. Probably just so they don't get accused of not doing more. The DCCC before this had only spent $28K, while outside Republicans have put in more than $4 million.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/18/montana-special-election-dem-super-pac-ads-238576

Just enough money to try to say that they did something with a straight face. Sad!

A $25,000 ad buy will go pretty far in Montana.  It's not Atlanta.
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« Reply #1026 on: May 19, 2017, 02:31:10 am »
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So smoking pot in 2017 is "more controversial" than in the 70s?
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« Reply #1027 on: May 19, 2017, 02:37:10 am »
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So smoking pot in 2017 is "more controversial" than in the 70s?

Well it's gotten stronger, you see.

But in all seriousness, while I think pot smoking is probably pretty acceptable to most of the population, it's still a pretty big deal for a federal candidate to casually admit to committing a contemporaneous felony.
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« Reply #1028 on: May 19, 2017, 07:46:12 am »
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Only makes my opinion of him go higher
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« Reply #1029 on: May 19, 2017, 11:01:44 am »
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CBO to release estimate for House-passed version of the AHCA on Wednesday, May 24

This could be a big deal here, especially with Quist making preexisting conditions the closing argument of his campaign. Unless something big comes out on Russia/Trump, all of the news across the country is going to be about AHCA less than 24 hours before voting starts.
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« Reply #1030 on: May 19, 2017, 11:04:48 am »
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CBO to release estimate for House-passed version of the AHCA on Wednesday, May 24

This could be a big deal here, especially with Quist making preexisting conditions the closing argument of his campaign. Unless something big comes out on Russia/Trump, all of the news across the country is going to be about AHCA less than 24 hours before voting starts.


If all coverage is on the AHCA before the election then it'll be tilt R instead of Lean R.
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« Reply #1031 on: May 19, 2017, 11:56:50 am »
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As of 5/18 (vs. the day before):

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 60.7% of mail-ins returned (+1.8 )

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 62.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.1)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 56.8% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 67.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.2)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 66.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 55.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.2)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 69.0% of mail-ins returned (+1.9) 

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 63.0% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 63.4% of mail-ins returned (+1.5)

Statewide: 61.8% of mail-ins returned (+2.2)
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« Reply #1032 on: May 19, 2017, 02:10:31 pm »
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...No one cares about smoking pot.  Anyone who insists otherwise, I invite them to 2017.
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« Reply #1033 on: May 19, 2017, 02:14:39 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.
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« Reply #1034 on: May 19, 2017, 02:34:02 pm »
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...No one cares about smoking pot.  Anyone who insists otherwise, I invite them to 2017.

Yeah, this. If Gianforte is seriously going to attack Quist over pot usage, he should win an award for stupidity.

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« Reply #1035 on: May 19, 2017, 02:42:08 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.
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« Reply #1036 on: May 19, 2017, 02:48:39 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.
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« Reply #1037 on: May 19, 2017, 02:55:33 pm »
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Lol, pot isn't a major issue in this race.
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« Reply #1038 on: May 19, 2017, 02:55:53 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.
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« Reply #1039 on: May 19, 2017, 03:31:59 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

If Gianforte wins, it won't be because of the hippie cowboy meme.  That's about as meaningful as calling Ossoff unqualified because he likes beer and Star Wars. *gasp*

The tax issue might sway some undecideds, but Montana helped elect the pussygrabber last November.  As long as white people continue white people-ing, personal scandals will have a minimal effect on these races.
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« Reply #1040 on: May 19, 2017, 04:33:41 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.
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« Reply #1041 on: May 19, 2017, 04:55:18 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.
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MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

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« Reply #1042 on: May 19, 2017, 05:02:27 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

If Wicks gets 15%, Gianforte is screwed.
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« Reply #1043 on: May 19, 2017, 05:16:54 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

If Wicks gets 15%, Gianforte is screwed.

He might win a few counties in Eastern Montana, which is a bit more fiscally conservative than socially conservative. Plus he could appeal to pot-smoking college students in Missoula County and make the county Lean Wicks. It's a very libertarian state, after all. Atlas told me so.  

J/k, I'd be surprised if he got more than 3% on election day. But I agree with this prediction, as of now I believe a 5-point Republican win is the most likely outcome, not that I'm confident in this prediction.
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2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

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« Reply #1044 on: May 19, 2017, 05:22:37 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

#illuminati
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« Reply #1045 on: May 19, 2017, 07:01:01 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.
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« Reply #1046 on: May 19, 2017, 07:04:35 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.
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« Reply #1047 on: May 19, 2017, 07:42:18 pm »
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I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.

Candidate quality matters.  If the now trending section is any indication, the most-read articles on the Lee Newspapers' websites are these stories about Quist and Gianforte's personal problems, not the AP copy about what is going on in Washington.  That's not to say that what's going on in Washington doesn't matter - but that local issues and candidate quality matter, too.
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« Reply #1048 on: May 19, 2017, 07:51:43 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.
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« Reply #1049 on: May 19, 2017, 08:21:20 pm »
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This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

If I've done the math right, based on the 2016 November CPS Data, about 13% of the VAP was 70+ in 2016, which roughly correlates with the Silents.  But they made up about 15.8% of all 2016 voters.  In Montana, their percentage is higher - 15.2% of the VAP and 17.8% of 2016 voters.  

The 70+s outnumber baby boom seniors (65-69) by roughly 2:1 in the 65+ cohort.
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