MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 230421 times)
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #975 on: May 19, 2017, 03:31:59 PM »

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

If Gianforte wins, it won't be because of the hippie cowboy meme.  That's about as meaningful as calling Ossoff unqualified because he likes beer and Star Wars. *gasp*

The tax issue might sway some undecideds, but Montana helped elect the pussygrabber last November.  As long as white people continue white people-ing, personal scandals will have a minimal effect on these races.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #976 on: May 19, 2017, 04:33:41 PM »

I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.
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Holmes
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« Reply #977 on: May 19, 2017, 05:02:27 PM »


If Wicks gets 15%, Gianforte is screwed.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #978 on: May 19, 2017, 05:22:37 PM »


#illuminati
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #979 on: May 19, 2017, 07:01:01 PM »

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #980 on: May 19, 2017, 07:04:35 PM »

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.
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cinyc
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« Reply #981 on: May 19, 2017, 07:42:18 PM »

I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.

Candidate quality matters.  If the now trending section is any indication, the most-read articles on the Lee Newspapers' websites are these stories about Quist and Gianforte's personal problems, not the AP copy about what is going on in Washington.  That's not to say that what's going on in Washington doesn't matter - but that local issues and candidate quality matter, too.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #982 on: May 19, 2017, 07:51:43 PM »

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.
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cinyc
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« Reply #983 on: May 19, 2017, 08:21:20 PM »

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

If I've done the math right, based on the 2016 November CPS Data, about 13% of the VAP was 70+ in 2016, which roughly correlates with the Silents.  But they made up about 15.8% of all 2016 voters.  In Montana, their percentage is higher - 15.2% of the VAP and 17.8% of 2016 voters.  

The 70+s outnumber baby boom seniors (65-69) by roughly 2:1 in the 65+ cohort.
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« Reply #984 on: May 19, 2017, 08:24:27 PM »

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

The Silent Generation is just becoming silent

Permanently.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #985 on: May 19, 2017, 10:00:03 PM »

Maybe one reason that google consumer polls have crazy regional divides is that Flathead's younger people are crossing over for a hometown populist?

I'm not sure that's the case, but it would help make the divide a canyon.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #986 on: May 19, 2017, 10:05:00 PM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/billingsgazette/status/865717628517703680

Gianforte endorsed by former and current Crow Tribal Chairmen.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #987 on: May 19, 2017, 11:13:48 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2017, 11:17:33 PM by Zyzz »

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

I used to browse FreeRepublic.com back in the late 2000's, to see what the enemy was up to. It was a real nasty right wing extremist website filled with lots of racism towards Obama. Oddly enough though, even among those hard line Tea Party types they we're always cracking jokes about pot and a bunch admitted to smoking pot themselves back in the 60's and 70's and thought the government should stay the hell out of the issue.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #988 on: May 20, 2017, 01:43:35 AM »

FWIW, some of the biggest anti-legalization opponents I've known are women aged 35-60 (i.e. moms). I'm pretty sure in every state with a legalization vote so far, men voted in support by a greater percentage than women did.
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Shadows
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« Reply #989 on: May 20, 2017, 02:30:44 AM »

Ryan Zinke is a powerful lad - Look at the way he picked Karen Pence like a doll. Mike Pence continued watching as his wife danced with Zinke !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOWeufF9pMs

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Kantakouzenos
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« Reply #990 on: May 20, 2017, 12:28:26 PM »

What are Quist's and Gianforte's stances on free trade and would their stances matter to anyone in certain parts of the state?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #991 on: May 20, 2017, 01:03:03 PM »

Sanders adviser says 4000 people are at the Quist/Sanders Missoula rally:



https://twitter.com/AriRabinHavt/status/865988723720286208
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #992 on: May 20, 2017, 01:14:39 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 01:19:43 PM by MT Treasurer »

What are Quist's and Gianforte's stances on free trade and would their stances matter to anyone in certain parts of the state?

Trade hasn't really been a major issue in this race. Quist talked about closing tax loopholes for companies that are out-sourcing jobs overseas and reforming the tax code for small businesses, etc., while Gianforte (enough with this now Tongue) wants to expand free trade, unsurprisingly. He apparently agrees with Trump that TPP was a bad deal the US.

Take all of this with a grain of salt, of course.

Maybe one reason that google consumer polls have crazy regional divides is that Flathead's younger people are crossing over for a hometown populist?

I'm not sure that's the case, but it would help make the divide a canyon.

I doubt that's the case, and it still wouldn't explain such an incredibly wide gap. Quist might do better than Bullock in Flathead while Gianforte might do significantly better (>5-point win) in Yellowstone than he did in 2012, but other than that I doubt you'll see many abnormalities.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #993 on: May 20, 2017, 01:21:51 PM »

Sanders adviser says 4000 people are at the Quist/Sanders Missoula rally:



https://twitter.com/AriRabinHavt/status/865988723720286208

Isn't that half the state?  (I kid, I kid.)
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Shadows
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« Reply #994 on: May 20, 2017, 01:31:28 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 01:54:15 PM by Shadows »

More pics coming in - Quite a few people !










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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #995 on: May 20, 2017, 01:45:28 PM »

^Missoula is the second-largest city in the state and a Democratic stronghold.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #996 on: May 20, 2017, 02:02:20 PM »

Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #997 on: May 20, 2017, 02:26:59 PM »

Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

Three days ago you said that Quist was basically toast, that he would need a "New Deal-style Democratic wave" to win and that it would be "the early 1930s" or "1866 with the parties reversed all over again" if he somehow won. I love how Atlas is overreacting to this when the race was never going to be an easy win for the GOP.

-Shrug- I've been watching from the sidelines and waiting. What do you think will happen? I remember asking you something around these lines in another thread, but you probably didn't see it.
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Shadows
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« Reply #998 on: May 20, 2017, 02:34:19 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 02:36:34 PM by Shadows »

Democrats win in Montana by narrow margins, Tester/Bullock by 4% odd & with seasoned well-liked politicians running a good campaign. If Quist sneaks out a victory it will by 1-3% points odd. This race was a Gianforte +5/6% & remains so unless there are some decent polls showing otherwise.

Special elections are all about turnout (& even normal elections to a lesser extent). The Kansas 04 seat from from being 25-30% R to 7% odd R thanks to high Dem turnout, so a seat like Montana could flip with very high Dem turnout (& solid independent support) !
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #999 on: May 20, 2017, 02:43:51 PM »

Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

Three days ago you said that Quist was basically toast, that he would need a "New Deal-style Democratic wave" to win and that it would be "the early 1930s" or "1866 with the parties reversed all over again" if he somehow won. I love how Atlas is overreacting to this when the race was never going to be an easy win for the GOP.

-Shrug- I've been watching from the sidelines and waiting. What do you think will happen? I remember asking you something around these lines in another thread, but you probably didn't see it.

I have substantially upped the probability that we could be in a serious Dem wave environment not far off from those years.  No telling if it holds to 2018, though.
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