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| | |-+  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 94409 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #1050 on: May 19, 2017, 07:04:35 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.
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« Reply #1051 on: May 19, 2017, 07:42:18 pm »
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I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.

Candidate quality matters.  If the now trending section is any indication, the most-read articles on the Lee Newspapers' websites are these stories about Quist and Gianforte's personal problems, not the AP copy about what is going on in Washington.  That's not to say that what's going on in Washington doesn't matter - but that local issues and candidate quality matter, too.
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« Reply #1052 on: May 19, 2017, 07:51:43 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.
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« Reply #1053 on: May 19, 2017, 08:21:20 pm »
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This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

If I've done the math right, based on the 2016 November CPS Data, about 13% of the VAP was 70+ in 2016, which roughly correlates with the Silents.  But they made up about 15.8% of all 2016 voters.  In Montana, their percentage is higher - 15.2% of the VAP and 17.8% of 2016 voters.  

The 70+s outnumber baby boom seniors (65-69) by roughly 2:1 in the 65+ cohort.
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« Reply #1054 on: May 19, 2017, 08:24:27 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

The Silent Generation is just becoming silent

Permanently.
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« Reply #1055 on: May 19, 2017, 10:00:03 pm »
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Maybe one reason that google consumer polls have crazy regional divides is that Flathead's younger people are crossing over for a hometown populist?

I'm not sure that's the case, but it would help make the divide a canyon.
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« Reply #1056 on: May 19, 2017, 10:05:00 pm »
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https://mobile.twitter.com/billingsgazette/status/865717628517703680

Gianforte endorsed by former and current Crow Tribal Chairmen.
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« Reply #1057 on: May 19, 2017, 11:13:48 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

I used to browse FreeRepublic.com back in the late 2000's, to see what the enemy was up to. It was a real nasty right wing extremist website filled with lots of racism towards Obama. Oddly enough though, even among those hard line Tea Party types they we're always cracking jokes about pot and a bunch admitted to smoking pot themselves back in the 60's and 70's and thought the government should stay the hell out of the issue.
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« Reply #1058 on: May 20, 2017, 01:43:35 am »
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FWIW, some of the biggest anti-legalization opponents I've known are women aged 35-60 (i.e. moms). I'm pretty sure in every state with a legalization vote so far, men voted in support by a greater percentage than women did.
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« Reply #1059 on: May 20, 2017, 02:30:44 am »
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« Reply #1060 on: May 20, 2017, 12:28:26 pm »
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What are Quist's and Gianforte's stances on free trade and would their stances matter to anyone in certain parts of the state?
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« Reply #1061 on: May 20, 2017, 01:03:03 pm »
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Sanders adviser says 4000 people are at the Quist/Sanders Missoula rally:



https://twitter.com/AriRabinHavt/status/865988723720286208
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« Reply #1062 on: May 20, 2017, 01:14:39 pm »
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What are Quist's and Gianforte's stances on free trade and would their stances matter to anyone in certain parts of the state?

Trade hasn't really been a major issue in this race. Quist talked about closing tax loopholes for companies that are out-sourcing jobs overseas and reforming the tax code for small businesses, etc., while Gianforte (enough with this now Tongue) wants to expand free trade, unsurprisingly. He apparently agrees with Trump that TPP was a bad deal the US.

Take all of this with a grain of salt, of course.

Maybe one reason that google consumer polls have crazy regional divides is that Flathead's younger people are crossing over for a hometown populist?

I'm not sure that's the case, but it would help make the divide a canyon.

I doubt that's the case, and it still wouldn't explain such an incredibly wide gap. Quist might do better than Bullock in Flathead while Gianforte might do significantly better (>5-point win) in Yellowstone than he did in 2012, but other than that I doubt you'll see many abnormalities.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2017, 01:19:43 pm by MT Treasurer »Logged

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« Reply #1063 on: May 20, 2017, 01:21:51 pm »
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Sanders adviser says 4000 people are at the Quist/Sanders Missoula rally:



https://twitter.com/AriRabinHavt/status/865988723720286208

Isn't that half the state?  (I kid, I kid.)
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« Reply #1064 on: May 20, 2017, 01:31:28 pm »
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More pics coming in - Quite a few people !










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« Reply #1065 on: May 20, 2017, 01:45:28 pm »
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^Missoula is the second-largest city in the state and a Democratic stronghold.
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« Reply #1066 on: May 20, 2017, 02:02:20 pm »
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Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).
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« Reply #1067 on: May 20, 2017, 02:18:41 pm »
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Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

Three days ago you said that Quist was basically toast, that he would need a "New Deal-style Democratic wave" to win and that it would be "the early 1930s" or "1866 with the parties reversed all over again" if he somehow won. I love how Atlas is overreacting to this when the race was never going to be an easy win for the GOP.
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NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

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« Reply #1068 on: May 20, 2017, 02:26:59 pm »
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Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

Three days ago you said that Quist was basically toast, that he would need a "New Deal-style Democratic wave" to win and that it would be "the early 1930s" or "1866 with the parties reversed all over again" if he somehow won. I love how Atlas is overreacting to this when the race was never going to be an easy win for the GOP.

-Shrug- I've been watching from the sidelines and waiting. What do you think will happen? I remember asking you something around these lines in another thread, but you probably didn't see it.
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« Reply #1069 on: May 20, 2017, 02:34:19 pm »
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Democrats win in Montana by narrow margins, Tester/Bullock by 4% odd & with seasoned well-liked politicians running a good campaign. If Quist sneaks out a victory it will by 1-3% points odd. This race was a Gianforte +5/6% & remains so unless there are some decent polls showing otherwise.

Special elections are all about turnout (& even normal elections to a lesser extent). The Kansas 04 seat from from being 25-30% R to 7% odd R thanks to high Dem turnout, so a seat like Montana could flip with very high Dem turnout (& solid independent support) !
« Last Edit: May 20, 2017, 02:36:34 pm by Shadows »Logged



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« Reply #1070 on: May 20, 2017, 02:43:51 pm »
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Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

Three days ago you said that Quist was basically toast, that he would need a "New Deal-style Democratic wave" to win and that it would be "the early 1930s" or "1866 with the parties reversed all over again" if he somehow won. I love how Atlas is overreacting to this when the race was never going to be an easy win for the GOP.

-Shrug- I've been watching from the sidelines and waiting. What do you think will happen? I remember asking you something around these lines in another thread, but you probably didn't see it.

I have substantially upped the probability that we could be in a serious Dem wave environment not far off from those years.  No telling if it holds to 2018, though.
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« Reply #1071 on: May 20, 2017, 02:45:58 pm »
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-Shrug- I've been watching from the sidelines and waiting. What do you think will happen? I remember asking you something around these lines in another thread, but you probably didn't see it.

I don't know, lol. I guess anything from Quist +5 to Gianforte +7 is possible, but right now I believe a 4- or 5-point GOP victory is the most likely outcome. Hardly a very confident prediction, though.

Someone said that there might be a "surprise landslide" (either candidate winning surprisingly easily, and certainly much easier than expected), but I think the state is too polarized for that to happen. Both candidates have a pretty high floor.

My brain tells me the GOP will win by 4-5, my gut tells me we might be surprised on election day. We'll find out soon enough. Smiley
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« Reply #1072 on: May 20, 2017, 03:00:29 pm »
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Are there a significant number of people in Montana who will vote Democratic no matter what, except in presidential races?
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« Reply #1073 on: May 20, 2017, 03:40:13 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?
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« Reply #1074 on: May 20, 2017, 03:49:29 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?
« Last Edit: May 20, 2017, 03:56:43 pm by cinyc »Logged
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