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| | |-+  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 66201 times)
Senator Scott
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« Reply #1050 on: May 19, 2017, 02:10:31 pm »
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...No one cares about smoking pot.  Anyone who insists otherwise, I invite them to 2017.
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Senator Scott
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« Reply #1051 on: May 19, 2017, 02:14:39 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.
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« Reply #1052 on: May 19, 2017, 02:34:02 pm »
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...No one cares about smoking pot.  Anyone who insists otherwise, I invite them to 2017.

Yeah, this. If Gianforte is seriously going to attack Quist over pot usage, he should win an award for stupidity.

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« Reply #1053 on: May 19, 2017, 02:42:08 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.
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Senator Scott
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« Reply #1054 on: May 19, 2017, 02:48:39 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.
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« Reply #1055 on: May 19, 2017, 02:55:33 pm »
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Lol, pot isn't a major issue in this race.
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« Reply #1056 on: May 19, 2017, 02:55:53 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.
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Senator Scott
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« Reply #1057 on: May 19, 2017, 03:31:59 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

If Gianforte wins, it won't be because of the hippie cowboy meme.  That's about as meaningful as calling Ossoff unqualified because he likes beer and Star Wars. *gasp*

The tax issue might sway some undecideds, but Montana helped elect the pussygrabber last November.  As long as white people continue white people-ing, personal scandals will have a minimal effect on these races.
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« Reply #1058 on: May 19, 2017, 04:33:41 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1059 on: May 19, 2017, 04:55:18 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.
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« Reply #1060 on: May 19, 2017, 05:02:27 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

If Wicks gets 15%, Gianforte is screwed.
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« Reply #1061 on: May 19, 2017, 05:16:54 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

If Wicks gets 15%, Gianforte is screwed.

He might win a few counties in Eastern Montana, which is a bit more fiscally conservative than socially conservative. Plus he could appeal to pot-smoking college students in Missoula County and make the county Lean Wicks. It's a very libertarian state, after all. Atlas told me so.  

J/k, I'd be surprised if he got more than 3% on election day. But I agree with this prediction, as of now I believe a 5-point Republican win is the most likely outcome, not that I'm confident in this prediction.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 05:21:42 pm by MT Treasurer »Logged



Senator Scott
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« Reply #1062 on: May 19, 2017, 05:22:37 pm »
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I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

#illuminati
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« Reply #1063 on: May 19, 2017, 07:01:01 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.
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« Reply #1064 on: May 19, 2017, 07:04:35 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.
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« Reply #1065 on: May 19, 2017, 07:42:18 pm »
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I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.

Candidate quality matters.  If the now trending section is any indication, the most-read articles on the Lee Newspapers' websites are these stories about Quist and Gianforte's personal problems, not the AP copy about what is going on in Washington.  That's not to say that what's going on in Washington doesn't matter - but that local issues and candidate quality matter, too.
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Senator Scott
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« Reply #1066 on: May 19, 2017, 07:51:43 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.
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« Reply #1067 on: May 19, 2017, 08:21:20 pm »
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This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

If I've done the math right, based on the 2016 November CPS Data, about 13% of the VAP was 70+ in 2016, which roughly correlates with the Silents.  But they made up about 15.8% of all 2016 voters.  In Montana, their percentage is higher - 15.2% of the VAP and 17.8% of 2016 voters.  

The 70+s outnumber baby boom seniors (65-69) by roughly 2:1 in the 65+ cohort.
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« Reply #1068 on: May 19, 2017, 08:24:27 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

The Silent Generation is just becoming silent

Permanently.
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« Reply #1069 on: May 19, 2017, 10:00:03 pm »
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Maybe one reason that google consumer polls have crazy regional divides is that Flathead's younger people are crossing over for a hometown populist?

I'm not sure that's the case, but it would help make the divide a canyon.
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« Reply #1070 on: May 19, 2017, 10:05:00 pm »
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https://mobile.twitter.com/billingsgazette/status/865717628517703680

Gianforte endorsed by former and current Crow Tribal Chairmen.
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« Reply #1071 on: May 19, 2017, 11:13:48 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

I used to browse FreeRepublic.com back in the late 2000's, to see what the enemy was up to. It was a real nasty right wing extremist website filled with lots of racism towards Obama. Oddly enough though, even among those hard line Tea Party types they we're always cracking jokes about pot and a bunch admitted to smoking pot themselves back in the 60's and 70's and thought the government should stay the hell out of the issue.
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« Reply #1072 on: May 20, 2017, 01:43:35 am »
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FWIW, some of the biggest anti-legalization opponents I've known are women aged 35-60 (i.e. moms). I'm pretty sure in every state with a legalization vote so far, men voted in support by a greater percentage than women did.
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« Reply #1073 on: May 20, 2017, 02:30:44 am »
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Ryan Zinke is a powerful lad - Look at the way he picked Karen Pence like a doll. Mike Pence continued watching as his wife danced with Zinke !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOWeufF9pMs

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« Reply #1074 on: May 20, 2017, 12:28:26 pm »
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What are Quist's and Gianforte's stances on free trade and would their stances matter to anyone in certain parts of the state?
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