MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Figueira]

Are there a significant number of people in Montana who will vote Democratic no matter what, except in presidential races?

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

[cinyc]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

[cinyc]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

Do you think that if Quist, or Gianforte leads beyond the margin of error of the google poll, that it can be safely said that candidate is in fact in the lead? Like, how accurate are google polls when you take the margin of error into account?

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

Do you have a Discord account or any kind of instant messaging account we can chat on?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

26 responses isn't nearly enough to be a reasonable sample.  Regardless of what it says about MoE, you can't really draw any kind of conclusions at this point.

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

26 responses isn't nearly enough to be a reasonable sample.  Regardless of what it says about MoE, you can't really draw any kind of conclusions at this point.

That's what I pretty much expected.

[cinyc]

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

The sample size is going to be too small for any meaningful analysis, unfortunately.  Quist likely will lead it in the end, but the MoE is going to be huge.  Raw, it's currently 12-3-1 Quist-Gianforte-Wicks.  There's no way that the poll would end up that lopsided with more respondents.

Your poll also currently faces the Google App vs. Website Ad polling sample issue - Usually, Google Surveys draw from both types, but with a small sample, you're getting all pro-candidate responses from websites, instead of the App.  The two types can poll differently. For example, if the first 25 voters are from the App (where respondents get paid for answering the poll and, IIRC, can't skip the question), you might end up with different results if the next 35 are from website Google Ads. At a quick glance, your poll is also slightly Western-Montana heavy - and we've seen a huge regional divide in all Google polls.

I usually track the different types in my spreadsheets.  (Here's the spreadsheet for Castro's recent poll, for example).

[mattocaster6]

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

The sample size is going to be too small for any meaningful analysis, unfortunately.  Quist likely will lead it in the end, but the MoE is going to be huge.  Raw, it's currently 12-3-1 Quist-Gianforte-Wicks.  There's no way that the poll would end up that lopsided with more respondents.

Your poll also currently faces the Google App vs. Website Ad polling sample issue - Usually, Google Surveys draw from both types, but with a small sample, you're getting all pro-candidate responses from websites, instead of the App.  The two types can poll differently. For example, if the first 25 voters are from the App (where respondents get paid for answering the poll and, IIRC, can't skip the question), you might end up with different results if the next 35 are from website Google Ads. At a quick glance, your poll is also slightly Western-Montana heavy - and we've seen a huge regional divide in all Google polls.

I see what you're saying.

So why are the Google polls being done on this race all showing Quist in the lead, even with weighting, while all the Gravis polls and the Dem super pac poll are showing Gianforte in the lead? Is it to do with the Google polls being biased towards internet users or something?

[MT Treasurer]

These Google Polls are generally not very reliable, and in this race they have been extremely biased toward Dems. I believe one poll conducted by cinyc showed GF ahead, though.

[mattocaster6]

Some guy on the PredictIt page for the race just posted what he claims are "Early vote projections" with Quist at 52.6% and Gianforte at 47.4% Don't know how legit it is, he' s probably just pumping.

[cinyc]

I see what you're saying.

So why are the Google polls being done on this race all showing Quist in the lead, even with weighting, while all the Gravis polls and the Dem super pac poll are showing Gianforte in the lead? Is it to do with the Google polls being biased towards internet users or something?

Not all the Google polls have shown Quist in the lead.  My last poll back in mid-April found Gianforte with a 10 point lead (weighted).  That poll was taken around the time of the first Gravis poll and the Emerson poll.

Quite frankly, I'm not sure whether these Google polls are good for anything but entertainment value.  They have been all over the place.  Part of the reason is because most people other than me have had relatively small sample sizes - 333, which maybe yields 240 non-Undecideds/Not Likely to votes).  Even my polls have only gotten 300-355 usable responses. My first Google Survey back in March had Quist up by something unbelieveable, like 14 or 17 points.  

The one-question methodology we are using is extremely suspect.  The fact that we don't have a registration based sample or a way to exclude non-voters in a one-question poll is suspect.  The fact that we can only weight by age, sex and (maybe) region is suspect.  And the Google polls that various Atlas users commissioned before the November election were off more than they were on.  So I always take these with a huge grain of salt.  This may be my last attempt at a Google Survey if it isn't close to reality this time.

[NOVA Green]

^Missoula is the second-largest city in the state and a Democratic stronghold.

It's also important to note that thus far turnout levels have been significantly lower than in other population centers in Montana.

Some of this is likely because of later voter turnout among younger college students in the County, than elsewhere.... However, obviously in a Special Election, right towards the end of the School Year, bumping Democratic turnout in Missoula is key towards making this a nail biter, so is the logical place to start.

[MT Treasurer]

^Missoula is the second-largest city in the state and a Democratic stronghold.

It's also important to note that thus far turnout levels have been significantly lower than in other population centers in Montana.

Some of this is likely because of later voter turnout among younger college students in the County, than elsewhere.... However, obviously in a Special Election, right towards the end of the School Year, bumping Democratic turnout in Missoula is key towards making this a nail biter, so is the logical place to start.

I agree, of course. My impression is that both sides are getting their voters out and that we will have record-high turnout on election day. I wanted to calculate the new numbers today, but the Secretary of State's website hasn't updated them yet.

[The Other Castro]

Some guy on the PredictIt page for the race just posted what he claims are "Early vote projections" with Quist at 52.6% and Gianforte at 47.4% Don't know how legit it is, he' s probably just pumping.

1st rule of PredictIt: Never read the comments. Trust me.

[Maxwell]

if only Quist were winning by 5

[Xing]

Quist only winning the early vote by 5 would probably mean that he'd lose.

[Shadows]

“These are difficult moments,” “Now is not the time to give up. Now is the time to fight back.” “Billionaires like Koch brothers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to elect candidates who will support the wealthy and the powerful,” Sanders said. “Rob is turning his back on raising money that way. His average contribution is 25 bucks.” “That bill is one of the ugliest, most dangerous, most anti-American bills ever passed in the Congress,” Sanders said. “Can you imagine anyone supporting a bill that would throw 24 million Americans, including 70,000 people in (Montana), off the health care they currently have?”

http://missoulian.com/news/local/update-bernie-sanders-campaigns-for-quist-in-missoula-now-is/article_0477a339-e909-5c74-a453-493a192e08a9.html

“This election is a fight for the soul of Montana,” Quist began to boisterous cheers. “People like Greg Gianforte, when they see our mountains, our rivers and our streams, they probably think, ‘well that would be good to own.’ (hearty boos from the audience) ‘And fence in, and develop, but real Montanans would say ‘this is our way of life’.

http://newstalkkgvo.com/missoula-felt-the-bern-as-senator-bernie-sanders-stumped-for-fellow-democrat-rob-quist-at-um/

[Shadows]

Pictures from Butte, Billings rallies -

[Holmes]

The only thing worst than Shadows spamming up the place with walls of text and pictures from campaign websites is Dwarven saying anything even remotely associated with Sanders is pure socialism.

[Brittain33]

Let's stick to Quist vs. Gianforte, not "socialism vs. fascism." Thank you. —mod.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Since this thing is almost all mail in ballots, will there just be one huge dump of votes, followed by a few trickles of those who voted at a few polls on election day, or will it still come out the usual way as it did in ga kansas and most other places?