MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MT Treasurer]

Since this thing is almost all mail in ballots, will there just be one huge dump of votes, followed by a few trickles of those who voted at a few polls on election day, or will it still come out the usual way as it did in ga kansas and most other places?

Pretty sure there will be a huge dump of votes 15 minutes after poll closing time or so. FWIW, this is what the results of MT-GOV 2016 looked like with "4% of the precincts" in (in fact, 27% of the vote had already been counted):

Bullock (D) - 55% - 75,579
Gianforte (R) - 42% - 58,291
Dunlap (L) - 3% - 3,957 

Link.

[Skill and Chance]

Since this thing is almost all mail in ballots, will there just be one huge dump of votes, followed by a few trickles of those who voted at a few polls on election day, or will it still come out the usual way as it did in ga kansas and most other places?

Pretty sure there will be a huge dump of votes 15 minutes after poll closing time or so. FWIW, this is what the results of MT-GOV 2016 looked like with "4% of the precincts" in (in fact, 27% of the vote had already been counted):

Bullock (D) - 55% - 75,579
Gianforte (R) - 42% - 58,291
Dunlap (L) - 3% - 3,957 

Link.

So the MT early vote favors Dems, but not by the insane margins that it favors them in the South?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Since this thing is almost all mail in ballots, will there just be one huge dump of votes, followed by a few trickles of those who voted at a few polls on election day, or will it still come out the usual way as it did in ga kansas and most other places?

Pretty sure there will be a huge dump of votes 15 minutes after poll closing time or so. FWIW, this is what the results of MT-GOV 2016 looked like with "4% of the precincts" in (in fact, 27% of the vote had already been counted):

Bullock (D) - 55% - 75,579
Gianforte (R) - 42% - 58,291
Dunlap (L) - 3% - 3,957 

Link.

Thank you.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ except for the R counting biases in GA, VA, WI, MI, CO, MO.

[Holmes]

^ except for the R counting biases in GA, VA, WI, MI, CO, MO.

Missouri doesn't even have early voting, and absentees are more Democratic than the final vote generally anyway. Georgia is more Democratic than the final vote usually, and I don't know about the rest.

I believe he meant early returns, not necessarily early votes themselves.

[mattocaster6]

I see what you're saying.

So why are the Google polls being done on this race all showing Quist in the lead, even with weighting, while all the Gravis polls and the Dem super pac poll are showing Gianforte in the lead? Is it to do with the Google polls being biased towards internet users or something?

Not all the Google polls have shown Quist in the lead.  My last poll back in mid-April found Gianforte with a 10 point lead (weighted).  That poll was taken around the time of the first Gravis poll and the Emerson poll.

Quite frankly, I'm not sure whether these Google polls are good for anything but entertainment value.  They have been all over the place.  Part of the reason is because most people other than me have had relatively small sample sizes - 333, which maybe yields 240 non-Undecideds/Not Likely to votes).  Even my polls have only gotten 300-355 usable responses. My first Google Survey back in March had Quist up by something unbelieveable, like 14 or 17 points.  

The one-question methodology we are using is extremely suspect.  The fact that we don't have a registration based sample or a way to exclude non-voters in a one-question poll is suspect.  The fact that we can only weight by age, sex and (maybe) region is suspect.  And the Google polls that various Atlas users commissioned before the November election were off more than they were on.  So I always take these with a huge grain of salt.  This may be my last attempt at a Google Survey if it isn't close to reality this time.

Have you started the google poll yet, any early returns?

[cinyc]

Have you started the google poll yet, any early returns?

The survey was put into the field around midnight, Mountain Time.  It's too early to say anything about the returns.  We're only up to 165/567 respondents.  The poll should be completed by tomorrow or (most likely) Tuesday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When is the pending Gravis poll supposed to be released?

[Holmes]

When is the pending Gravis poll supposed to be released?

When they think up some numbers to use.

[cinyc]

When is the pending Gravis poll supposed to be released?

I don't think Gravis necessarily absolutely promised to release a new poll.  Their Tweet only says that they're going to TRY to release another one. 

The blog on their website that usually lists poll releases is currenly down.

[mattocaster6]

Have you started the google poll yet, any early returns?

The survey was put into the field around midnight, Mountain Time.  It's too early to say anything about the returns.  We're only up to 165/567 respondents.  The poll should be completed by tomorrow or (most likely) Tuesday.

Can you just say whether Quist or Gianforte is in the lead so far? Pleeease? (I know it doesn't mean much I'm just really impatient lol)

[MT Treasurer]

Have you started the google poll yet, any early returns?

The survey was put into the field around midnight, Mountain Time.  It's too early to say anything about the returns.  We're only up to 165/567 respondents.  The poll should be completed by tomorrow or (most likely) Tuesday.

Can you just say whether Quist or Gianforte is in the lead so far? Pleeease? (I know it doesn't mean much I'm just really impatient lol)

Chill. You won't get a totally reliable poll before the election anyway, so you might as well listen to your gut when you make your final prediction for this race. Don't read too much into Google surveys, Gravis or polling in general.

[McGovernForPrez]

When is the pending Gravis poll supposed to be released?

When they think up some numbers to use.

Remember when Gravis put Bernie within like 5 points of winning Maryland LMAO. Can't believe they get paid to do this.

[mattocaster6]

surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4

53 of my 60 sample size poll is in and Gianforte only has 4 votes: lol

Quist: 25 Gianforte: 4 Wicks: 2 Undecided: 15 Won't vote: 7

Even with such a tiny sample size as 60 and a sh**tty pollster surely Quist must have some kind of advantage, at least with Google poll takers.

[MT Treasurer]

surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4

53 of my 60 sample size poll is in and Gianforte only has 4 votes: lol

Quist: 25 Gianforte: 4 Wicks: 2 Undecided: 15 Won't vote: 7

Even with such a tiny sample size as 60 and a sh**tty pollster surely Quist must have some kind of advantage, at least with Google poll takers.

I rest my case. Seriously though, I believe there was a Montana GCS poll that showed Clinton leading Trump in the state, though it was part of a 50-state survey or something like that, LOL.

[Holmes]

surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4

53 of my 60 sample size poll is in and Gianforte only has 4 votes: lol

Quist: 25 Gianforte: 4 Wicks: 2 Undecided: 15 Won't vote: 7

Even with such a tiny sample size as 60 and a sh**tty pollster surely Quist must have some kind of advantage, at least with Google poll takers.

I rest my case. Seriously though, I believe there was a Montana GCS poll that showed Clinton leading Trump in the state, though it was part of a 50-state survey or something like that, LOL.

Wasn't that Reuters? Which were subsamples of their national polls.

[cinyc]

Can you just say whether Quist or Gianforte is in the lead so far? Pleeease? (I know it doesn't mean much I'm just really impatient lol)

It's way too early to responsibly do that.  There are too few respondents.  A pro-Quist or pro-Gianforte sample as lopsided as your Google Poll can easily change the bottom line.  Once you get more respondents, that becomes less possible.

Patience is a virtue.

[MT Treasurer]

Wasn't that Reuters? Which were subsamples of their national polls.

Nah, Google. Check the link:

National Topline
Clinton: 36
Trump: 35
Johnson: 8
Undecided: 31

Montana
Clinton: 33
Trump: 29

Now all we need is ARG and Zogby to poll this race...

[Holmes]

Wasn't that Reuters? Which were subsamples of their national polls.

Nah, Google. Check the link:

National Topline
Clinton: 36
Trump: 35
Johnson: 8
Undecided: 31

Montana
Clinton: 33
Trump: 29

Now all we need is ARG and Zogby to poll this race...

I remember those now. But Reuters also did a 50 state poll thing, and they called it "state of the nation" or something. They had Trump leading in Vermont one time.

2016 was bad for polling.

[Ronnie]

I don't know why, but my gut tells me Quist pulls it out in a squeaker.  And I'm usually a pessimist.

[The Other Castro]

I don't know why, but my gut tells me Quist pulls it out in a squeaker.  And I'm usually a pessimist.

If Quist were to win, after all of his problems and lack of outside support, it could send a major shock to Congressional Republicans and push them further against Trump.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Quist didnt smoke weed, peform at nude resorts, and have a terrible rating  from the NRA I'd have it

Quist:53
Gianforte:43
Wicks:4

With these skeletons, I am guessing

Quist:49
Gianforte:47
Wicks:4

[mattocaster6]

If Quist didnt smoke weed, peform at nude resorts, and have a terrible rating  from the NRA I'd have it

Quist:53
Gianforte:43
Wicks:4

With these skeletons, I am guessing

Quist:49
Gianforte:47
Wicks:4

I don't think smoking weed or performing at nudist resorts is very damaging to Quist, if at all...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Quist didnt smoke weed, peform at nude resorts, and have a terrible rating  from the NRA I'd have it

Quist:53
Gianforte:43
Wicks:4

With these skeletons, I am guessing

Quist:49
Gianforte:47
Wicks:4

I don't think smoking weed or performing at nudist resorts is very damaging to Quist, if at all...

From our view, no. From a socially conservative state like Montana, well let's just hope that you are right. And I notice how you left off the NRA factor, now that is damaging.

[mattocaster6]

The NRA rated Bullock and Tester badly too, and they still won.