MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Devout Centrist]

Calling it now, Quist wins by 3.6%

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

I've been on predict for a year and a half lol, they have some smart people there, but most of them have literally no clue how to read into local elections. Made so much money on Bernie winning IN iand RI in the primaries. They typically bet on how they superficially view the state from their DC perspective of America.

[cvparty]

predictit is really shakin' up

[The_Doctor]

Gianaforte's response is ... not ... good. It contradicts the audio and the police are holding a press conference. Well, this ought to make Election Day in Montana a lively affair.

So, this comes down to how many Republicans turn out to vote? I heard Bullock led by 14% on early vote (similar to MT Treasurer's statement). So if Bullock led by 4% in the final vote, it means the election day vote must have been, what, +10-15% GOP? (I should look up the Early Vote in MT in '16)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I have a feeling this does nothing tomorrow.

You don't think that this is going to discourage some lukewarm Republican voters, who were already on the fence because of the AHCA, from getting out to vote for someone who may be under arrest by the time they get to the polls?

I think we're being too quick to judge how this will work out, I think his MoV will be narrowed, but not enough to allow Quist to win the seat. If I'm wrong, I'll be happy. But I think we need to be rational here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Calling it now, Quist wins by 3.6%

This is a nightmare for anyone who is even slightly superstitious smh...

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

I'd been making my guess based on observing Montana's congressional trend and how MT was saying here that Gianforte's campaign was being run relatively normal.

Montana has had two Democratic Senators up until 2014, and still has one fairly popular Senator. They do vote D at the national level with a decent frequency.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

What? I always had this race as a Tossup, so please stop making stuff up.

Not you. You are cool. I'm talking about that Florida Republican.

Why don't you check the polls instead of attacking Saint?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

What? I always had this race as a Tossup, so please stop making stuff up.

Not you. You are cool. I'm talking about that Florida Republican.

Oh, sorry then, LOL. I'm a bit stressed right now, you know? This is all too much for me to "handel" (ha.ha.).

It's cool dude.

[TheSaint250]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

I'd been making my guess based on observing Montana's congressional trend and how MT was saying here that Gianforte's campaign was being run relatively normal.

Montana has had two Democratic Senators up until 2014, and still has one fairly popular Senator. They do vote D at the national level with a decent frequency.

I get that.  I was thinking in more recent years, especially with Zinke.  Maybe I jumped the gun a little. I just thought that in the House it would trend more GOP.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Just talked to a GOP strategist who basically endorsed this  (GF's) statement as a political strategy. Can't apologize now. Rally base is only move
https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/867550298188820480

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

What? I always had this race as a Tossup, so please stop making stuff up.

Not you. You are cool. I'm talking about that Florida Republican.

Why don't you check the polls instead of attacking Saint?

Yep, totally gonna go look at some Gravis polls now...

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

I'd been making my guess based on observing Montana's congressional trend and how MT was saying here that Gianforte's campaign was being run relatively normal.

Montana has had two Democratic Senators up until 2014, and still has one fairly popular Senator. They do vote D at the national level with a decent frequency.

I get that.  I was thinking in more recent years, especially with Zinke.  Maybe I jumped the gun a little. I just thought that in the House it would trend more GOP.

Fair enough. I tended to be thinking special election dynamics gain Quist some fighting chance even before this.

[Brittain33]

I have a feeling this does nothing tomorrow.

You don't think that this is going to discourage some lukewarm Republican voters, who were already on the fence because of the AHCA, from getting out to vote for someone who may be under arrest by the time they get to the polls?

I think we're being too quick to judge how this will work out, I think his MoV will be narrowed, but not enough to allow Quist to win the seat. If I'm wrong, I'll be happy. But I think we need to be rational here.

Ok, we'll agree to disagree. I think he was going to win narrowly as of yesterday and that the CBO score was an X factor that had the potential to pull him under. I posted a prediction of a 3 point win earlier today.

Considering that the R brand is not doing well now, and how reluctant people were to vote for Hillary Clinton because she was "under investigation"—that Republican candidates are coasting on duty from their core voters and not enthusiasm—this kind of event is fatal.

[krazen1211]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

It's not physically possible for most folks to body slam an adult male.

[MT Treasurer]

Just talked to a GOP strategist who basically endorsed this  (GF's) statement as a political strategy. Can't apologize now. Rally base is only move
https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/867550298188820480

Interesting. I can see where they're coming from... I hate to draw that comparison again, but didn't Akin also apologize publicly? Didn't help him at all in the end.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This crapstorm is literally one of the top things on CNN with the Garish Red breaking news font next to it, I don't think we gotta worry about under-coverage boys...

[Technocracy Timmy]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

It's not physically possible for most folks to body slam an adult male. If Gianforte can pull that off he is a major stud to be sure.

2017 GOP folks. Beta males need not apply. Must physically assault reporter to receive "stud" status.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

It's not physically possible for most folks to body slam an adult male.

-_-.

[The_Doctor]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

It's not physically possible for most folks to body slam an adult male. If Gianforte can pull that off he is a major stud to be sure.

2017 GOP folks. Beta males need not apply. Must physically assault reporter to receive "stud" status.

lol, good catch. He edited it out. Which is funny.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just my luck...I never actually pulled all of my Quist shares from PredictIt

It just keeps getting better and better...

Nice, how many you got now?

[Classic Conservative]

This crapstorm is literally one of the top things on CNN with the Garish Red breaking news font next to it, I don't think we gotta worry about under-coverage boys...

Gianforte's base isn't the CNN type. If Fox covers this, he will lose big time. He's still going to.

[The_Doctor]

Quist tweets "Tomorrow is your opportunity to vote to protect the lives of Montanans. Find your polling place & vote."

I chuckled at the subtweet.

[krazen1211]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

It's not physically possible for most folks to body slam an adult male. If Gianforte can pull that off he is a major stud to be sure.

2017 GOP folks. Beta males need not apply. Must physically assault reporter to receive "stud" status.

Proof is in the pudding, isn't? This guy gets in someone's face, gets (allegedly, by his own accord) owned, and goes on twitter about broken glasses.

Pure beta move!

Yes, the voters prefer alpha males.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This crapstorm is literally one of the top things on CNN with the Garish Red breaking news font next to it, I don't think we gotta worry about under-coverage boys...

Gianforte's base isn't the CNN type. If Fox covers this, he will lose big time. He's still going to.

It's on Fox, but lower...