MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 230443 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1800 on: May 24, 2017, 10:36:42 PM »

How many people have voted already?
About 2/3 of the electorate. But undecideds and leaners vote on election day. The GOP has to do well in election day vote to win.

Surely not ever single person votes that's registered, in other words, there won't be 100% turnout. They are already topping 70% turnout, how many more people could there even be left that want to vote tomorrow?
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #1801 on: May 24, 2017, 10:37:39 PM »

Sorry, but when altorbotox spews verbal diarrhea all over the forum, I will call her out on it.

Using this incident to throw shade at conservatives and accuse them of being violent is wrong and shameful.
I'm a he

you're a turd.
love you too
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1802 on: May 24, 2017, 10:37:43 PM »

Man I gotta thank Crazy Greg for all that meme value he's blessed us with.

Crazy Greg looks like Jared Fogle's skinny uncle.
Jared Fogle visited my elementary school as a kid 0.0

I'd trust him more than Drumpf around children.
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Figueira
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« Reply #1803 on: May 24, 2017, 10:37:49 PM »

Guys, please stay on topic. Arguing which side is more violent is pointless and frankly an argument no one wins anyway.

Maybe lock this until the morning so people can calm down for a while?



I don't see why. The election is still going on.
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #1804 on: May 24, 2017, 10:38:32 PM »

How many people have voted already?
About 2/3 of the electorate. But undecideds and leaners vote on election day. The GOP has to do well in election day vote to win.

Surely not ever single person votes that's registered, in other words, there won't be 100% turnout. They are already topping 70% turnout, how many more people could there even be left that want to vote tomorrow?
70% turnout? Is that of all eligible voters or do you mean 70% of those who voted last year have turned out?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1805 on: May 24, 2017, 10:39:14 PM »

How many people have voted already?
About 2/3 of the electorate. But undecideds and leaners vote on election day. The GOP has to do well in election day vote to win.

Surely not ever single person votes that's registered, in other words, there won't be 100% turnout. They are already topping 70% turnout, how many more people could there even be left that want to vote tomorrow?
70% turnout? Is that of all eligible voters or do you mean 70% of those who voted last year have turned out?

We are at around 50% of what we got last year, but about 70% of absentee ballots are in.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1806 on: May 24, 2017, 10:39:48 PM »

How many people have voted already?
About 2/3 of the electorate. But undecideds and leaners vote on election day. The GOP has to do well in election day vote to win.

Surely not ever single person votes that's registered, in other words, there won't be 100% turnout. They are already topping 70% turnout, how many more people could there even be left that want to vote tomorrow?

No they're not.  70% of absentees sent have been returned.  That's not 70% of all registered voters.  From what I've heard, absentee turnout is somewhere in the 30s as a percentage of registered voters.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1807 on: May 24, 2017, 10:40:06 PM »

How many people have voted already?
About 2/3 of the electorate. But undecideds and leaners vote on election day. The GOP has to do well in election day vote to win.

Surely not ever single person votes that's registered, in other words, there won't be 100% turnout. They are already topping 70% turnout, how many more people could there even be left that want to vote tomorrow?
Sorry, I meant 2/3 of the early vote.
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Matty
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« Reply #1808 on: May 24, 2017, 10:40:27 PM »

so not even 30% of people have voted?
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1809 on: May 24, 2017, 10:40:53 PM »

is the other 1/3rd enough to sway it to Quist? I still think Gianforte will win, but it will be close and wouldn't be surprised to see Wick at 3.5%+
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1810 on: May 24, 2017, 10:41:21 PM »

BEEN BUSY ALL DAY

HOLY HELL
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1811 on: May 24, 2017, 10:41:44 PM »

Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #1812 on: May 24, 2017, 10:42:45 PM »

Man I gotta thank Crazy Greg for all that meme value he's blessed us with.

Crazy Greg looks like Jared Fogle's skinny uncle.
Jared Fogle visited my elementary school as a kid 0.0
I'd trust him more than Drumpf around children.
I remember he carried around the 60 inch waisted jeans he used to wear so all the kids could see. Kinda creepy looking back on it.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #1813 on: May 24, 2017, 10:43:17 PM »

Yeah Crazy Greg lost his temper...
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1814 on: May 24, 2017, 10:43:27 PM »

Man I gotta thank Crazy Greg for all that meme value he's blessed us with.

Crazy Greg looks like Jared Fogle's skinny uncle.
Jared Fogle visited my elementary school as a kid 0.0
I'd trust him more than Drumpf around children.
I remember he carried around the 60 inch waisted jeans he used to wear so all the kids could see. Kinda creepy looking back on it.

And the footlong too.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1815 on: May 24, 2017, 10:46:23 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2017, 10:49:23 PM by cinyc »

Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Edit: There are 699,207 Montana registered voters as of 5/23/17.  The percentage of those who have already voted is 36.87%.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1816 on: May 24, 2017, 10:48:18 PM »

Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Thank you.
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Matty
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« Reply #1817 on: May 24, 2017, 10:51:04 PM »

No elmo pic? Is there a more appropriate time than now?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1818 on: May 24, 2017, 10:52:13 PM »

We might assume that Quist would do better in early vote than on Election Day under normal circumstances, but I'm not sure how much of an effect there'd be with a) widespread mail ballot usage and b) body-slamming.

I'm not sure Gianforte would be doing substantially better in early vote (if at all), which means that he probably has more to lose in this situation than if it were Quist doing the body-slamming the day before the election.

In other words, if Quist is going to win, he's probably already got a lead with votes returned and there probably wasn't a lot of wiggle room for gains had this happened sooner. In fact, this probably happened at the best possible time assuming the general rule of how EV/ED vote slant applies - and also how the ED Montana electorate is reportedly less partisan.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1819 on: May 24, 2017, 10:53:32 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2017, 10:58:06 PM by cinyc »

373,831 Montanas cast ballots in the 2014 general election.  516,901 Montanans cast ballots in the 2016 general election.

So, at 2014 turnout, you're looking at about 116,000 election day voters.  At 2016 turnout, about 259,000.  Given absentee return rates, the answer is probably somewhere in between, closer to the 2014 numbers than the 2016 numbers.

If 2014 is the model, about 69% of voters have already voted.  If 2016 is the model, about 50% have already voted.  The answer, again, will likely be somewhere in between, closer to the 2014 numbers than the 2016 numbers.
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Angrie
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« Reply #1820 on: May 24, 2017, 10:54:41 PM »

Can we get back on topic and stop arguing over which side is more violent?

Yeah. As someone who has been targeted (albeit in a relatively minor way compared to some of the other things mentioned - rock thrown through the window of a campaign office) by political violence, "who is more violent" is not the issue. The act(s) of violence themselves are the issue. Arguing about it in a partisan way is sort of pathetic, and shows that you are not actually taking it seriously.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1821 on: May 24, 2017, 10:55:52 PM »

Can we get back on topic and stop arguing over which side is more violent?

Yeah. As someone who has been targeted (albeit in a relatively minor way compared to some of the other things mentioned - rock thrown through the window of a campaign office) by political violence, "who is more violent" is not the issue. The act(s) of violence themselves are the issue. Arguing about it in a partisan way is sort of pathetic, and shows that you are not actually taking it seriously.

If Quist, and that's a big if, manages to pull an upset tomorrow night, he should buy a thank you card and cake for Wicks.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1822 on: May 24, 2017, 10:56:04 PM »

Front page of FoxNews.com right now.

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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #1823 on: May 24, 2017, 10:58:24 PM »

Gianforte is over if Fox News has caved.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1824 on: May 24, 2017, 10:58:43 PM »

In other words, if Quist is going to win, he's probably already got a lead with votes returned and there probably wasn't a lot of wiggle room for gains had this happened sooner. In fact, this probably happened at the best possible time assuming the general rule of how EV/ED vote slant applies - and also how the ED Montana electorate is reportedly less partisan.

Wouldn't a few days prior have been optimal? The night before election day doesn't seem to give much time for the electorate to marinate with this scandal. There could be a lot of people going to vote tomorrow that haven't even heard about it yet, in which case, I hope Quist has volunteers out in force giving people a heads up before they vote.
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