MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Matty]

Gianforte essentially pulled a "marty on the election atlas forum", except his meltdown happened irl.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gianforte essentially pulled a "marty on the election atlas forum", except his meltdown happened irl.

Your beliefs definitely don't align with mine, but I seriously doubt you are that bad of a person.

[Adam Griffin]

In other words, if Quist is going to win, he's probably already got a lead with votes returned and there probably wasn't a lot of wiggle room for gains had this happened sooner. In fact, this probably happened at the best possible time assuming the general rule of how EV/ED vote slant applies - and also how the ED Montana electorate is reportedly less partisan.

Wouldn't a few days prior have been optimal? The night before election day doesn't seem to give much time for the electorate to marinate with this scandal. There could be a lot of people going to vote tomorrow that haven't even heard about it yet, in which case, I hope Quist has volunteers out in force giving people a heads up before they vote.

I don't know. News cycles run fast: had this happened a few days ago, it wouldn't surprise me if the shock would have already worn off and some people who might have bucked initially would end up back in the Pianoforte camp.

If what I'm hearing about the polarization of EV/ED electorates there is true, then it would have had less of an impact with the EV crowd + I'm unsure if the percentage of people who returned their ballots in the past few days is even one-third of the number of people who'll vote tomorrow.

[The_Doctor]

Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Edit: There are 699,207 Montana registered voters as of 5/23/17.  The percentage of those who have already voted is 36.87%.

So roughly 1/3 of the vote still out. So this would probably be very close assuming the election day Republican turnout is down. I just don't know who won early voting because of the polling.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

373,831 Montanas cast ballots in the 2014 general election.  516,901 Montanans cast ballots in the 2016 general election.

So, at 2014 turnout, you're looking at about 116,000 election day voters.  At 2016 turnout, about 259,000.  Given absentee return rates, the answer is probably somewhere in between, closer to the 2014 numbers than the 2016 numbers.

If 2014 is the model, about 69% of voters have already voted.  If 2016 is the model, about 50% have already voted.  The answer, again, will likely be somewhere in between, closer to the 2014 numbers than the 2016 numbers.

Split the difference and call it 60% have voted? That's still 40% (at least one third in all likelihood). Maybe 180,000 voters tomorrow? I'd be happy going to bed tonight if I was Rob Quist.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Edit: There are 699,207 Montana registered voters as of 5/23/17.  The percentage of those who have already voted is 36.87%.

So roughly 1/3 of the vote still out. So this would probably be very close assuming the election day Republican turnout is down. I just don't know who won early voting because of the polling.

I gave up on trying to figure out what the polls were saying.

[cinyc]

Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Edit: There are 699,207 Montana registered voters as of 5/23/17.  The percentage of those who have already voted is 36.87%.

So roughly 1/3 of the vote still out. So this would probably be very close assuming the election day Republican turnout is down. I just don't know who won early voting because of the polling.

1/3 to 1/2 of the vote is still out, depending on 2014 vs. 2016 turnout.  The answer will likely be somewhere in the middle, closer to 1/3.

[KingSweden]

Gianforte essentially pulled a "marty on the election atlas forum", except his meltdown happened irl.

Your beliefs definitely don't align with mine, but I seriously doubt you are that bad of a person.

[The_Doctor]

Gianforte essentially pulled a "marty on the election atlas forum", except his meltdown happened irl.

Your beliefs definitely don't align with mine, but I seriously doubt you are that bad of a person.

Nuclear elmo plz too

[Virginiá]

Nuclear elmo plz too

How on earth did this thread carry on all night without a nuclear elmo?

[The_Doctor]

Nuclear elmo plz too

How on earth did this thread carry on all night without a nuclear elmo?

he was body slammed too

[Technocracy Timmy]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

[Ronnie]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

That's the thing. It's almost too hard to believe.

[Matty]

Montana is a weird state, politically.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

-_-. If we lose tommorow, I'm blaming it on all these knaves who think just because they got a little advantage, they can swoop in like a hotshot, and claim victory before we even see results. I thought we have already learnt from 2016 about the dangers of this...

[Matty]

Nuclear elmo plz too

How on earth did this thread carry on all night without a nuclear elmo?

We did though earlier. Somewhere in the 50's pages

shouldn't some sort of yellowstone disaster image be more appropriate here? LOL

[Virginiá]

We did though earlier. Somewhere in the 50's pages

Oh wow, I see it ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5665079#msg5665079 )

This night's events have taken up over 20 pages? Jesus. That's like election night.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

-_-. If we lose tommorow, I'm blaming it on all these knaves who think just because they got a little advantage, they can swoop in like a hotshot, and claim victory before we even see results. I thought we have already learnt from 2016 about the dangers of this...

I don't live in Montana or work for Rob Quist's campaign.

Anyhow my comment was implying that I find it too hard to believe that he could actually win on this platform. I'm still not sure if he'll win. Guess we'll see tomorrow.

[Angrie]

I think this thread gets up to at least 120 pages by the time this race gets called.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

-_-. If we lose tommorow, I'm blaming it on all these knaves who think just because they got a little advantage, they can swoop in like a hotshot, and claim victory before we even see results. I thought we have already learnt from 2016 about the dangers of this...

I don't live in Montana or work for Rob Quist's campaign.

Anyhow my comment was implying that I find it too hard to believe that he could actually win on this platform. I'm still not sure if he'll win. Guess we'll see tomorrow.

You literally said you cannot believe that Quist will win Montana tomorrow. Not much room to Kellyanne your way out of it.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

-_-. If we lose tommorow, I'm blaming it on all these knaves who think just because they got a little advantage, they can swoop in like a hotshot, and claim victory before we even see results. I thought we have already learnt from 2016 about the dangers of this...

I don't live in Montana or work for Rob Quist's campaign.

Anyhow my comment was implying that I find it too hard to believe that he could actually win on this platform. I'm still not sure if he'll win. Guess we'll see tomorrow.

You literally said you cannot believe that Quist will win Montana tomorrow. Not much room to Kellyanne your way out of it.

I probably should've rephrased my original comment, yes. But my final point still stands.

[KingSweden]

Nuclear elmo plz too

How on earth did this thread carry on all night without a nuclear elmo?

Nuclear Elmo was deployed about twenty pages back. Sadly, the ensuing nuclear winter turned this thread into a barren wasteland shortly afterwards

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

We did though earlier. Somewhere in the 50's pages

Oh wow, I see it ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5665079#msg5665079 )

This night's events have taken up over 20 pages? Jesus. That's like election night.

Crazy, isn't it?

Did anything come out of the Sheriff's press conference?

[Angrie]

We did though earlier. Somewhere in the 50's pages

Oh wow, I see it ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5665079#msg5665079 )

This night's events have taken up over 20 pages? Jesus. That's like election night.

Crazy, isn't it?

Did anything come out of the Sheriff's press conference?

Not really. They just wanted people to stop calling 911 about it and said they would treat it like any other case.