MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm not sure how Jeff Roe could possibly know this, but he says:

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  18m18 minutes ago
#MTAL 65% of votes are in and it looks to be about 50%'ish @RobQuistforMT 40%'ish @GregForMontana and 10% indie or no vote history to tell.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  13m13 minutes ago
#MTAL means roughly @GregForMontana needs to get around 58% of Election Day vote to win. Assuming 400K total votes. 259K are already cast.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  12m12 minutes ago
#MTAL roughly 8,801 or 6.3% of Election Day voters have to flip (no pun) to Quist. Not vote indie or just not vote but vote Quist.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  3m3 minutes ago
#MTAL in other words 17,601 @GregForMontana voters need to NOT go vote in order to elect @RobQuistforMT

Wicks did not get 10% of the early vote, sorry.

[MT Treasurer]

thanks a lot, MT!

since i am greedy....is MT "small" enough that all counties are necessary or...which one are the biggues?

You mean whether all counties are important? Well, it depends on how close the race is. Gianforte obviously needs high turnout and margins in the rural areas (especially in the East), but he also needs to win Yellowstone County (Billings), Flathead County (Kalispell) and Ravalli County by a lot.
Quist needs to run up the margins in Missoula, Silver Bow and Gallatin.

But yeah, if it is within 2 points or so, "every county matters" . And as was mentioned before, Lake County is usually a good bellwether.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Thanks, VM and MT - learning a new thing each day.

well....so many middle-sized counties, that this is really all about republican turnout, democrats have no chance in hell to "turnout" their out of this.

[Shadows]

Why would Paul Ryan turn his back on Gianforte? He refused to do that publicly after Trump's tape bragging about sexual assaults. Both Handel & Gianforte are firm yes votes for Ryan & Trumpcare, that is why CFL is running so many ads & are spending so much money there !

Paul Ryan is getting a strong ally, he knows this will die down after a while !

I agree with Shadows here. If he wouldn't call out Trump's tape, why would he call out Gianforte's?

ryan DID call out trump's tape.

at that point he proclaimed, he wouldn't defend him anymore and every republican was on his own re: this question.

Ryan called Trump a racist after the Mexican judge comment on Trump University but after the sexual assault bragging tape, only said I won't defend him. That is it.

He is doing the same with Greg, 1 line of mild criticism & then is moving on. Kasich votes for McCain, Ayotte (who is Trump's stooge now) voted for Pence, McCain de-endorsed him, Collins never endorsed him. So these people were so-called independent voices, not Ryan !

[Angrie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He is obviously going off of something in the voter file, some sort of modeling either specifically for this race or else for just some measure/estimate of generic partisanship. You can see this because he says "no vote history to tell," implying that he is inferring preferences for the other people based on things like vote history.

[McGovernForPrez]

I'm not sure how Jeff Roe could possibly know this, but he says:

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  18m18 minutes ago
#MTAL 65% of votes are in and it looks to be about 50%'ish @RobQuistforMT 40%'ish @GregForMontana and 10% indie or no vote history to tell.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  13m13 minutes ago
#MTAL means roughly @GregForMontana needs to get around 58% of Election Day vote to win. Assuming 400K total votes. 259K are already cast.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  12m12 minutes ago
#MTAL roughly 8,801 or 6.3% of Election Day voters have to flip (no pun) to Quist. Not vote indie or just not vote but vote Quist.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  3m3 minutes ago
#MTAL in other words 17,601 @GregForMontana voters need to NOT go vote in order to elect @RobQuistforMT

Wicks did not get 10% of the early vote, sorry.

Early vote leans Dem, we already knew this. That final 10% didn't necessarily vote for Wicks. It just means they didn't have enough history to know who they voted for. If Quist was ahead by 10 in the early vote that probably suggested a really close race any, even without the slamgate.

[publicunofficial]

Just when you think you've seen everything...

[ApatheticAustrian]

From "lifezette", Laura Ingraham's site:






https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/867784005755842560


why did anyone take ingraham seriously in the first place?

[McGovernForPrez]

Fivethirtyeight saw our polls https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/

We've been acknowledged!!!!

[The Other Castro]

notice me senpai!

[ApatheticAustrian]

Daines:

Greg Gianforte needs to apologize.
https://twitter.com/SteveDaines/status/867776315742703618

[MasterJedi]

From "lifezette", Laura Ingraham's site:






https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/867784005755842560


why did anyone take ingraham seriously in the first place?

Fox trying to help choke slam man win.

[McGovernForPrez]

Guys, wouldn't it be cool to watch a tag team wrestling match between Gianforte and Trump, vs Quist and Bullock. I think I'd die.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Fivethirtyeight saw our polls https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/

We've been acknowledged!!!!

Nate Silver and Harry Enten probably sh!tpost on here.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

thanks a lot, MT!

since i am greedy....is MT "small" enough that all counties are necessary or...which one are the biggues?

https://www.montana-demographics.com/counties_by_population Yellowstone, Missoula, Gallatin are the largest by population. Most counties are big but the whole state is fairly rural and spreadout so county-wise it wouldn't make that much of a difference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_counties_in_Montana

Lake County has a history of closely tracking statewide results despite not being that demographically representative of the state (large Native American minority).

[ApatheticAustrian]

Just shoved a phone in front of a bunch of senators asking about health care with more to come. I'm Johnny Knoxville and this is Jackass.
https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/867790126176403456

xD

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, this is all about reducing Gianforte's margin on election day now for Quist. But it is worth pointing out that just because this pattern occurred in past elections, that doesn't mean things can't get odd this time around. For example, in 2016 Gianforte took a 2000-vote lead or so with 85%-90% of precincts reporting, and at that point I thought that he had a good chance of winning due to the usual reporting pattern being replicated. And what happened? The last 10-15% came in, and Bullock actually took the lead and won by 4 in the end. (This didn't happen in the 2006 and 2012 Senate race, btw). So while it is true that the early returns/the first big vote dump almost always favor Democrats (like I said, Bullock was up 13 points with 30% of the vote in in 2016), last year the last returns were very Democratic-friendly as well. Maybe this was just a one-time thing, who knows.

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

[MT Treasurer]

Guys, wouldn't it be cool to watch a tag team wrestling match between Gianforte and Trump, vs Quist and Bullock. I think I'd die.

I'd prefer Tester and Fox vs. Zinke and Gianforte.

[Matty]

It's approaching noon in mt, what percentage of voters have already voted would you guys say? 80%?

[KingSweden]

Fivethirtyeight saw our polls https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/

We've been acknowledged!!!!

Nate Silver and Harry Enten probably sh!tpost on here.

Plot twist: Harry Enten is Krazen

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, this is all about reducing Gianforte's margin on election day now for Quist. But it is worth pointing out that just because this pattern occurred in past elections, that doesn't mean things can't get odd this time around. For example, in 2016 Gianforte took a 2000-vote lead or so with 85%-90% of precincts reporting, and at that point I thought that he had a good chance of winning due to the usual reporting pattern being replicated. And what happened? The last 10-15% came in, and Bullock actually took the lead and won by 4 in the end. (This didn't happen in the 2006 and 2012 Senate race, btw). So while it is true that the early returns/the first big vote dump almost always favor Democrats (like I said, Bullock was up 13 points with 30% of the vote in in 2016), last year the last returns were very Democratic-friendly as well. Maybe this was just a one-time thing, who knows.

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

I will not make a projection, regardless of who leads, until we have sufficient returns from Yellowstone, Flathead, Lewis and Clark, and Missoula to know with confidence the final margins in those key counties.

[Xing]

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, some people might stay level-headed and keep in mind how unrepresentative early returns can be, but we all know how much of Atlas will react later tonight.

If Quist is ahead by more than 10%: OMG! Quistslide here we come! Bye-bye, Crazy Greg!

If Gianforte ever takes the lead: OMG! Quist is done!

[Gass3268]

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, some people might stay level-headed and keep in mind how unrepresentative early returns can be, but we all know how much of Atlas will react later tonight.

If Quist is ahead by more than 10%: OMG! Quistslide here we come! Bye-bye, Crazy Greg!

If Gianforte ever takes the lead: OMG! Quist is done!

The correct term is Violent Greg.

[Tintrlvr]

Fivethirtyeight saw our polls https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/

We've been acknowledged!!!!

Nate Silver and Harry Enten probably sh!tpost on here.

Plot twist: Harry Enten is Krazen

Ha. I have met Harry Enten personally (he dated a friend of mine for a while). Not creative enough to be krazen.

[BuckeyeNut]

Fivethirtyeight saw our polls https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/

We've been acknowledged!!!!

Nate Silver and Harry Enten probably sh!tpost on here.

Plot twist: Harry Enten is Krazen

Ha. I have met Harry Enten personally (he dated a friend of mine for a while). Not creative enough to be krazen.

I too have met Enten. He's pretty milquetoast. And kind of a snob.