MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.

That's the real story people should be paying attention to. A 14-point swing towards Democrats nationally would be a complete wave.

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[Barnes]

I think a problem that some posters have is that they become far too bullish about a candidate's chances in any race and thus become very disappointed if they don't cross the line. This is understanble, but really not the right way to look at it.

None of these special elections are even remotely important in that they will not change the balance of power in the House by once inch, and, has already been shown, special elections really show little of what will happen in the coming election.

Simply put, there are some very good signs here and I don't see any reason to be despondent.  

[Pyro]

I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.

That's the real story people should be paying attention to. A 14-point swing towards Democrats nationally would be a complete wave.

The swing also may be indicating a warmer, more active response to left-ish populist tactics (taking into account Quist's mediocre campaign) from the Democrats over hurrah-centrism of the past cycles.

[Yank2133]

I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.

That's the real story people should be paying attention to. A 14-point swing towards Democrats nationally would be a complete wave.

The swing also may be indicating a warmer, more active response to left-ish populist tactics (taking into account Quist's mediocre campaign) from the Democrats over hurrah-centrism of the past cycles.

Or it is a response to an unpopular president. Just like how it was in 2010 and 2014.

[Beet]

    One question to ponder is what would have happened had it been a Democrat doing the body slamming.  How would Dem voters have responded to their candidate?  Would they have stayed home or voted for an alternative  or still supported their candidate?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say not too much different than Montana GOP voters did.

You're too far out on that limb. We don't know what would have happened, but the Democrats didn't run a candidate who thought it'd be a good idea to attack someone.

[Brittain33]

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That is basically what happened when Scott Brown won. He didn't get any more votes than McCain did 15 months before, but Coakley had an enormous drop-off from Obama's totals.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is a horrifying result no matter how you slice it.

Something has gone horribly wrong in American politics, and I don't think it's going to get fixed any time soon.

[RFayette]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

It's hard to not see it that way at times. I wonder if the national cultural has really shifted that far from the one that fostered:

1) Japanese-American Internment Camps
2) Trail of Tears
3) Annihilation of Native Americans
4) Colonization and depreciation of territories and citizens therein
5) 9/11 Response
6) Overall regime change
7) Preying on those who need the most

The list can go on and on. There is a serious rot. I was raised Christian, and my parents pretty much taught me the polar opposite of all of that (and they were conservative by PR standards).

I was also raised Christian, still am.  Thought about becoming a pastor.  It took me to realize that I'm a terrible Christian as well as a terrible person in general to see that it's not the job for me.  But if any country needs meaningful spiritual revival, it's this one, and American Christianity needs to be taken back from the idolaters and the hypocrites.

Every Christian is a terrible Christian.  That's why salvation is by faith alone. 

[RI]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

It's hard to not see it that way at times. I wonder if the national cultural has really shifted that far from the one that fostered:

1) Japanese-American Internment Camps
2) Trail of Tears
3) Annihilation of Native Americans
4) Colonization and depreciation of territories and citizens therein
5) 9/11 Response
6) Overall regime change
7) Preying on those who need the most

The list can go on and on. There is a serious rot. I was raised Christian, and my parents pretty much taught me the polar opposite of all of that (and they were conservative by PR standards).

I was also raised Christian, still am.  Thought about becoming a pastor.  It took me to realize that I'm a terrible Christian as well as a terrible person in general to see that it's not the job for me.  But if any country needs meaningful spiritual revival, it's this one, and American Christianity needs to be taken back from the idolaters and the hypocrites.

Every Christian is a terrible Christian.  That's why salvation is by faith alone. 

bruh, faith is itself a work. salvation is by grace.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing. That they want to live in a world where you're supposed to body slam people whenever you please. That they want to celebrate that kind of behavior by electing those who commit it. They are truly a terrible populace. I commend myself for pulling out of my own Assaulterforte endorsement less than an hour after the incident occured, but the people of Montana clearly felt otherwise, with many saying that the incident had only made their support for Assaulterforte more enthusiastic. It is truly sad that there exists even one state in this country where people are celebrating assault.

And while Assaulterforte's apology in his victory speech was a step in the right direction, the fact is that he and his campaign gravely lied about the incident in its immediate aftermath, that his committing of such an action makes me concerned that he will do similar things in congress, and that there may be legal consequences for his actions. It is very difficult to see the sorts of circumstances in which I would endorse him for anything in the future.

I will also take this opportunity to pledge that I will never live in Montana, or as it should be called, Assaultana, no matter what incentive one may give to me. This election shows that is truly a despicable place, and is worthy of any and all scorn and insult.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

This is a bit over the top.  The majority of votes were cast before the assault happened, so your conclusion does not follow.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

This is a bit over the top.  The majority of votes were cast before the assault happened, so your conclusion does not follow.

Regardless, in any sane state, the election day vote would be Pro-Quist enough to at least pull Assaulterforte under a majority of the vote.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is a horrifying result no matter how you slice it.

Something has gone horribly wrong in American politics, and I don't think it's going to get fixed any time soon.

I seem to recall an incident in 2006 where Conrad Burns attacked a group of out of state firefighters for "not doing enough" to help with the wildfires in the state.

Many thought it contributed to his loss, perhaps it did considering how close it was. But, Burns was trailing by 20 point and IIRC, subsequent polls to that incident showed Burns gaining ground.

I tend to think you are right to some extent, especially with regards to Montana as this is the second time that such unacceptable behavior, seemingly didn't play out the way it would have expected.

Or perhaps it is just coincidence.

[Tintrlvr]

This is a horrifying result no matter how you slice it.

Something has gone horribly wrong in American politics, and I don't think it's going to get fixed any time soon.

I seem to recall an incident in 2006 where Conrad Burns attacked a group of out of state firefighters for "not doing enough" to help with the wildfires in the state.

Many thought it contributed to his loss, perhaps it did considering how close it was. But, Burns was trailing by 20 point and IIRC, subsequent polls to that incident showed Burns gaining ground.

I tend to think you are right to some extent, especially with regards to Montana as this is the second time that such unacceptable behavior, seemingly didn't play out the way it would have expected.

Or perhaps it is just coincidence.

Burns was not down by 20 points at any time. He was trailing, but the polls were very close, within single digits from all pollsters except a poll from Montana State University (dubious) and clustered in the 1-5 point lead for Tester range. I agree that some people attributed his loss to the firefighter comments, but whether those actually made a difference is hard to say. The polls didn't change much and more or less matched the final result.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?fips=30

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is a horrifying result no matter how you slice it.

Something has gone horribly wrong in American politics, and I don't think it's going to get fixed any time soon.

I seem to recall an incident in 2006 where Conrad Burns attacked a group of out of state firefighters for "not doing enough" to help with the wildfires in the state.

Many thought it contributed to his loss, perhaps it did considering how close it was. But, Burns was trailing by 20 point and IIRC, subsequent polls to that incident showed Burns gaining ground.

I tend to think you are right to some extent, especially with regards to Montana as this is the second time that such unacceptable behavior, seemingly didn't play out the way it would have expected.

Or perhaps it is just coincidence.

Burns was not down by 20 points at any time. He was trailing, but the polls were very close, within single digits from all pollsters except a poll from Montana State University (dubious) and clustered in the 1-5 point lead for Tester range. I agree that some people attributed his loss to the firefighter comments, but whether those actually made a difference is hard to say. The polls didn't change much and more or less matched the final result.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?fips=30

I seemed to have recalled him further down because of the Abramoff scandal, at least early on.

Either way, one would expect such an incident to cause him to lose by a wide margin, not come within a 1% tie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Eventhough, I expect MT to tilt more GOP, leaning in 2020, pending on the Democratic candidates in 2020, the Dems will have Tester on the ballot in 2018 and he has huge appeal across the state.

Dems will win this race in 2018, with Tester on the Ticket.

[rob in cal]

   Do we know whether Wicks did much better on election day votes than votes by mail? If so that might indicate that some potential GG voters did switch their votes, but probably not enough voters did to get Dwarven to move there anytime soon.

[MT Treasurer]

I will also take this opportunity to pledge that I will never live in Montana, or as it should be called, Assaultana, no matter what incentive one may give to me.

Excellent news! So even Quist and Wicks voters benefited from these results, after all.

The nice thing about that 7 point spread is that it's juuuust the right size to justify any #analysis someone would want to make.

Yeah, I agree with this. The takes and the spinning from both sides are astounding.

[Virginiá]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

How? Most of the votes were cast before that happened.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

How? Most of the votes were cast before that happened.

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

This is a bit over the top.  The majority of votes were cast before the assault happened, so your conclusion does not follow.

Regardless, in any sane state, the election day vote would be Pro-Quist enough to at least pull Assaulterforte under a majority of the vote.

[Virginiá]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

This is a bit over the top.  The majority of votes were cast before the assault happened, so your conclusion does not follow.

Regardless, in any sane state, the election day vote would be Pro-Quist enough to at least pull Assaulterforte under a majority of the vote.

Doesn't really matter. It still makes that statement of yours I bolded wrong. You don't know for sure that a majority of them would have still voted for Piano Man if it happened before voting started. If you're going to try and indict the character of the people of Montana, they ought to at least be given a fair shake on that.

[Kantakouzenos]

Could someone make a trend map of the 2016 presidential results to Quiats performance and a similar one for the 2016 Gubernatorial results to the 2016 house results? 

I was wondering how Quists theoretical "winning coalition" would differ from Clintons and Bullocks, and this would answer it.

[Lothal1]

Lesson learned: nobody cares about the media

[ApatheticAustrian]

Lesson learned: nobody cares about the media

without being hyperbolic and ignoring the fact that 70% of the vote was cast before....

... a side result of decades of "conservative" media-blaming

i recommend this essay by a true conservative:


Kevin D. Williamson:  How to Read the Newspaper
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/447693/fake-news-media-voters-shared-reality-must-be-acknowledged

[MT Treasurer]

Funny how your percentage prediction underestimated Gianforte, while your county prediction underestimated Quist.

Yeah, I only missed Park County, which went for Quist with less than 50%, and not for Gianforte with less than 50%.

I called the other 55 counties for the right candidate, but the margins in some counties were wrong, partly because I underestimated Wicks' support.

- Dawson County: GF >60%, not >70%
- Golden Valley: GF >70%, not >60%
- Petroleum County: GF >70%, not >80%
- Hill County: Quist >40%, not >50%
- Blaine County: Quist >40%, not >50%
- Teton County: GF >50%, not >60%
- Liberty County: GF >50%, not >60%

Many of these were also reallllyyy close to being correct, after all. Overall, definitely not a bad county prediction.