MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[cinyc]

Google Surveys were right about one thing: There was a 23-point difference between the vote in Eastern and Western Montana.  Quist won the Western Montana vote by 3 points, 49-46.  Gianforte won the Eastern Montana vote by 21, 57-36.

If I've done the math right, Western Montana was slightly overrepresented versus past elections - 61% of the total vote instead of 59-60%.

[Hammy]

This is a horrifying result no matter how you slice it.

Something has gone horribly wrong in American politics, and I don't think it's going to get fixed any time soon.

Things were never right in American politics to start with.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

This is a bit over the top.  The majority of votes were cast before the assault happened, so your conclusion does not follow.

Regardless, in any sane state, the election day vote would be Pro-Quist enough to at least pull Assaulterforte under a majority of the vote.

Doesn't really matter. It still makes that statement of yours I bolded wrong. You don't know for sure that a majority of them would have still voted for Piano Man if it happened before voting started. If you're going to try and indict the character of the people of Montana, they ought to at least be given a fair shake on that.

     What Gianforte did was terrible and nobody should defend it, but people are grossly overreacting by taking this result to be an endorsement of his actions.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

This is a bit over the top.  The majority of votes were cast before the assault happened, so your conclusion does not follow.

Regardless, in any sane state, the election day vote would be Pro-Quist enough to at least pull Assaulterforte under a majority of the vote.

Doesn't really matter. It still makes that statement of yours I bolded wrong. You don't know for sure that a majority of them would have still voted for Piano Man if it happened before voting started. If you're going to try and indict the character of the people of Montana, they ought to at least be given a fair shake on that.

     What Gianforte did was terrible and nobody should defend it, but people are grossly overreacting by taking this result to be an endorsement of his actions.

the result is YIKES (it FEELS like it doubles down the killing of all standards which also started the age of trump), the known voices who defending and normalizing are much worse.

[BuckeyeNut]

The real question now is who do Dems put up in '18? Gianforte shouldn't be a strong incumbent.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[MT Treasurer]

Google Surveys were right about one thing: There was a 23-point difference between the vote in Eastern and Western Montana.  Quist won the Western Montana vote by 3 points, 49-46.  Gianforte won the Eastern Montana vote by 21, 57-36.

If I've done the math right, Western Montana was slightly overrepresented versus past elections - 61% of the total vote instead of 59-60%.

Yeah, the extent of this was quite astounding.

@xingkerui: Mark Wicks was born in Chester, which is located in Liberty County. I assume most people there know him personally, so that should explain his 17% showing (fun fact: He even came in second in one precinct). He also lives with his family in Inverness (Hill County) and runs a farm there, which probably explains the 12% in Hill.

@Kantakouzenos: I will try to make a trend map soon, at least when we know for sure that there aren't any votes left to be counted.

Btw: If anyone wants to see the results as they came in on election night, here is a video of election night coverage (it's the only one I found): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz4JgX9vkLM   Ignore the commentary and just skip to the results.

[Figueira]

I had a feeling those Google polls might be onto something with that regional divide.

[cinyc]

I had a feeling those Google polls might be onto something with that regional divide.

That's about the only thing they got right.  Mattocaster6 actually had two Google polls out after mine.  The first one was in the field 5/22-24 - and had Gianforte up by 5 (weighted).  But it had an undecided option, which actually won the poll at 37%.  N was small 230 total respondents with 210 not choosing the NLTV option.   It predicted Quist would win the West vote by 4 and Gianforte the East vote by 16.  Not bad.

But then he put a 344 Respondent poll in the field late on 5/23 Mountain Time.  It didn't end until near the end of election day.  At first, it was a tie or a small Quist lead.  Then, Gianforte assaulted the reporter, and the poll overreacted.  The final weighted tally was Quist +13, with Quist up by 27 in the West and Gianforte only up by 4 in Eastern Montana.  There was no undecided option, and 254 total respondents chose a candidate.

The chart below shows the cumulative Quist margin (weighted) in that poll:


The yellow line is about when the Gianforte assault news broke.  Note that once the news broke, Quist's margin exploded.  My guess is this is in part because most people who take Google Surveys are reading news articles, and many of the articles at the time were about the assault.  And Quist supporters are more likely to read negative stories about Gianforte.  Similarly, my final Google Survey might have been biased by Quist supporters reading stories about his rally with Bernie, which happened that weekend.

In other words, these Google Surveys have somewhat of a self-selected sample.  I'm done with them.  The experiment has failed.

[nclib]

Haven't read the last 20 pages, but do we know how the Election Day vote broke? I would like to think the Dem won that, but red states have gotten totally inflexible.

The fact that Gianforte assaulted a reporter who was doing his job and asking a reasonable question means Gianforte knew he couldn't win with logic and reason.

For a party that claims to be tough on crime and law and order, this is pure hypocrisy.

Republicans lack compassion and sensitivity, plain and simple. The may use 10-second soundbites to pretend they don't (small government, tough on crime. family values, etc.) but we aren't fooled.

[MT Treasurer]

Haven't read the last 20 pages, but do we know how the Election Day vote broke? I would like to think the Dem won that, but red states have gotten totally inflexible.

If we're extrapolating the answer from the Yellowstone County results (the margin basically stayed the same throughout the night), the election day vote wasn't really more Democratic than the early vote.

[Maxwell]

Haven't read the last 20 pages, but do we know how the Election Day vote broke? I would like to think the Dem won that, but red states have gotten totally inflexible.

The fact that Gianforte assaulted a reporter who was doing his job and asking a reasonable question means Gianforte knew he couldn't win with logic and reason.

For a party that claims to be tough on crime and law and order, this is pure hypocrisy.

Republicans lack compassion and sensitivity, plain and simple. The may use 10-second soundbites to pretend they don't (small government, tough on crime. family values, etc.) but we aren't fooled.

The Republicans have given up any sense of principle since Trump became President.

[TJ in Oregon]

...
I commend myself for pulling out of my own Assaulterforte endorsement less than an hour after the incident occured
...

I like you Wulfric, but that is one of the more narcissistic I've read on the internet. Who the heck cares who any of us "endorse"? Also, commending one's self is rather cringeworthy to begin with.

[MT Treasurer]

In case you missed it, Gianforte was sworn into the House on Wednesday.



Meanwhile, the final tally in this race:

Greg Gianforte (R) - 190,520 - 49.95%
Rob Quist (D) - 169,214 - 44.36%
Mark Wicks (L) - 21,682 - 5.68%

GOP margin of victory: R+5.59

I am currently working on some swing and trend maps.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Disgusting.

Still, that's technically a majority against assault, so I will cease calling Montana Assaultana and I withdraw my pledge to never live there. I will of course continue to call the congressman Assaulterforte though.

[Heisenberg]

Disgusting.

Still, that's technically a majority against assault, so I will cease calling Montana Assaultana and I withdraw my pledge to never live there. I will of course continue to call the congressman Assaulterforte though.

Still, your initial reaction went way too far, a large majority (I'd say around two-thirds) cast their ballots before #Assaultgate. And even so, just because somebody voted for Gianforte doesn't even mean they think his actions were okay. They were not, they may have been scared that the seat would flip.

Anyway, sad that he fell below 50%, I lost a lot of laughs.
By the way, what caused vote totals to change? Absentee/mail-in ballots, I assume?

Edit: Does anyone have early vote vs. Election Day numbers? I think Election Day may have even been more pro-Gianforte than the early votes, from what I heard before the election. And somewhere I read that the #Assaultgate incident even made some people more pro-Gianforte. How's that, Wulfric?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hey MT, Marty and any local Montanan who would be the best recruit to knock GG off in 2018?

[MT Treasurer]

By the way, what caused vote totals to change? Absentee/mail-in ballots, I assume?

Mostly provisional ballots, I believe. This happens every time, and those late ballots always skew Democratic.

Hey MT, Marty and any local Montanan who would be the best recruit to knock GG off in 2018?

Well, if the national environment is good enough and/or Gianforte's approval ratings plunge, Jesse Laslovich should give it a try again IMO. The Democrats also have some pretty good other potential candidates currently serving in the Montana Legislature. Some people are apparently obsessed with Kelly McCarthy and would really like to see him run, so maybe he'll end up being the Democratic nominee (I think he's overrated, but who knows). I read somewhere that Amanda Curtis might run again, but I really doubt it.

Gianforte should do 4-6 points better than the Republican candidate for Senate, but there won't be THAT many Tester/Gianforte voters. I know it's controversial because "Trump midterm!!", but right now I'd rate the Senate race a Tossup and the House race Lean R.

[MT Treasurer]

Alright, so here is the 2012-GOV --> 2017-Special election swing map:

2012 results:

Steve Bullock (D) - 236,450 - 48.90%
Rick Hill (R) - 228,879 - 47.34%
Ron Vandevender (L) - 18,160 - 3.76%

2017 results:

Greg Gianforte (R) - 190,520 - 49.95%
Rob Quist (D) - 169,214 - 44.36%
Mark Wicks (L) - 21,682 - 5.68%

Statewide "swing": R+7.15

County by county "swing" (Link: http://funkyimg.com/i/2wjPe.png)



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

Four counties swung Democratic: Gallatin, Missoula, Flathead and Madison.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

<snip>

w-o-w can you see the Crow Tribe's flip doing its work in Big Horn County.

Is there any indication that they're going to ally with the GOP long term?

[Heisenberg]

<snip>

w-o-w can you see the Crow Tribe's flip doing its work in Big Horn County.

Is there any indication that they're going to ally with the GOP long term?

Well, the Crow Tribe does have coal on their reservation, so I will assume that it will be a major factor in their endorsements.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

<snip>

w-o-w can you see the Crow Tribe's flip doing its work in Big Horn County.

Is there any indication that they're going to ally with the GOP long term?

Well, the Crow Tribe does have coal on their reservation, so I will assume that it will be a major factor in their endorsements.

Yeah, but I seemed to remember that they endorsed Dems pretty regularly before. So is this yet another Democratic casualty in the #waroncoal? Or was this a one-election deal?

[MT Treasurer]

2016-PRES --> 2017-Special election swing map:

2016 results:

Trump (R) - 279,240 - 55.65%
Clinton (D) - 177,709 - 35.41%
Others - 44,873 - 8.94%

2017 results:

Greg Gianforte (R) - 190,520 - 49.95%
Rob Quist (D) - 169,214 - 44.36%
Mark Wicks (L) - 21,682 - 5.68%

Statewide "swing": D+14.65

County by county "swing" (Link: http://funkyimg.com/i/2wk3k.png)



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

This map really underscores the importance of Yellowstone County, which was key to Gianforte's victory. Quist outperformed Clinton in every county (no surprise), but he underperformed substantially in Yellowstone County (the most populous county in the state.

[MT Treasurer]

2014-SEN --> 2017-Special election swing map:

2014 results:

Steve Daines (R) - 213,709 - 57.79%
Amanda Curtis (D) - 148,184 - 40.07%
Roger Roots (L) - 7,933 - 2.15%

2017 results:

Greg Gianforte (R) - 190,520 - 49.95%
Rob Quist (D) - 169,214 - 44.36%
Mark Wicks (L) - 21,682 - 5.68%

Statewide "swing": D+12.13

County by county "swing" (Link: http://funkyimg.com/i/2wk82.png)



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

As you can see, Eastern Montana wasn't very kind to Quist. Maybe I'll post some further #analysis later.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, but I seemed to remember that they endorsed Dems pretty regularly before. So is this yet another Democratic casualty in the #waroncoal? Or was this a one-election deal?

I wouldn't read too much into this, honestly. Rosendale is making fossil fuels a key issue of his Senatorial campaign, and we all know Tester is the one who will get their endorsement. A lot of people endorsed Gianforte who "shouldn't have", including the state's largest newspapers. Quist wasn't the strongest candidate and didn't run the best campaign, to say the least.