MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[publicunofficial]

Do we know anything about O'Neill's politics or political skills?

Zinke has been actively recruiting him and his appearances on Fox news suggests that he is fairly conservative. Also Tammy Duckworth shows that an inspiring military background can help overcome a lack of political skills

I don't think Duckworth proved that. She underperformed in her election to the House, and she only beat Kirk in a landslide because he made a racist comment and it's Illinois.

What does Duckworth have to do to prove herself, at this point?

[publicunofficial]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

Rolling my eyes so hard right now.

[publicunofficial]

Gianforte would be one of the richest people in Congress if elected, I believe (Still nowhere close to Issa)

[publicunofficial]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

Every election carries forward forever. At least Gianforte losing won't spawn 100,000 thinkpieces on how the Republican Party needs to change every single thing about themselves if they want to ever win again.

[publicunofficial]

Quist released his first television ad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c--EsRoiGs&feature=youtu.be

Pretty good, actually. One thing I've noticed is that unlike in GA-06, both Gianforte and Quist aren't really trying to nationalize the race.

I think if this were a gubernatorial race, Quist would win fairly handily. He'll have a tougher time winning a House seat, but of course it's still a pure Tossup.

He looks like an excellent candidate. Are you thinking about voting for him?

I think TN Vol has roughly the same policy I do: I can recognize individual Republican candidates as being good politicians, not a complete monster, and even find them more likable than their opponents. But I'm far too political and too aware of the importance of chamber majorities to ever vote for them.

[publicunofficial]

Ugh... why?

http://www.kxlf.com/story/35127583/donald-trump-jr-to-campaign-for-greg-gianforte-in-montana

He's gonna win them over with his authentic rugged outdoorsman persona.

[publicunofficial]

Apparently Gianforte ALSO has an ad involving guns and the shooting of TV's.

[publicunofficial]

Gianforte asks the tough questions: Would Jesus have approved of overtime pay? I think the answer is an obvious no.

[publicunofficial]

Does the DCCC not understand how to respond to attack ads, or do they just not care?

[publicunofficial]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

[publicunofficial]

-Democratic Party puts in very little effort to help, or comes in late after a barrage of ads
-D Candidate loses race
-"See guys, the DNC was smart not to invest here"
-Rinse, repeat, forever

[publicunofficial]

I don't see how the rental thing is a campaign-ending scandal.

He let his son live in a refurbished barn that was classified as a barn and not an apartment! This is the kind of stuff that sinks campaigns!

[publicunofficial]

Gianforte on donating to suspected white nationalist: 'I was unaware of some of his views'
Missoulian/JAYME FRASER

This story is in the Montana media today.  Apparently, Gianforte donated money to all Republican state house candidates last cycle, including one or two who the Southern Poverty Law Center and liberal Montana bloggers think are white nationalists. 

My views on the SPLC are fairly well known -for reasons better explained by this recent article in the Federalist, the SPLC is a partisan Democratic group masquerading as an anti-hate group whose word about things should not be taken at face value.  They tend to label all conservatives as hate groups.

The candidates Gianforte donated to were "diversity is code for white genocide" nutjobs. I know in some conservative circles that position is no longer taboo but to most normal people it's pretty racist.

[publicunofficial]

OMG Quist smoked pot!!!111!!!!11!!!!!(one)!!!!!!11

He's ducking the marijuana and health questions, instead of taking them head on.  That doesn't look good.  He intially lied about his citation for smoking pot, then immediately hung up on the reporter.  His spokeswoman had to set the record straight. 

Quist should have taken the Clinton route and just admitted it.  What hippie musician in the 70s didn't smoke pot?

Honestly, what Montanan hasn't smoked pot?

[publicunofficial]

FWIW, some of the biggest anti-legalization opponents I've known are women aged 35-60 (i.e. moms). I'm pretty sure in every state with a legalization vote so far, men voted in support by a greater percentage than women did.

[publicunofficial]

BEEN BUSY ALL DAY

HOLY HELL

[publicunofficial]

Just when you think you've seen everything...

[publicunofficial]

I'm going to be crushed or absolutely elated tonight. The liquor will flow either way.

[publicunofficial]

The nice thing about that 7 point spread is that it's juuuust the right size to justify any #analysis someone would want to make.