MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

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This could be no big deal, and Republicans will hold MT-AL and still be very competitive in MT-SEN... or it could cost them dearly. A lot depends on how 2017 goes.

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I feel better about this race because the MT Dems are a lot more competent than GA Dems.

At the convention to replace Walsh they chose Curtis, not exactly "competent"

It's not like they were going to win that seat anyway.

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Glad to see Quist won, hope he can pull this off.

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The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Sanders only won MT 52-44. It's not the south, but it's not KS or UT either.

That's not exactly a fair comparison. KS and UT were caucus states, while MT had a primary after AP declared Clinton had clinched the nomination.

TN Vol, any reason why you think Quist is favored? I don't doubt that he'll make it competitive, but it seems like Montana hasn't had a Democratic House representative in a long time.

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I'll believe Quist winning by double digits when I see it, but Democrats definitely made the right choice picking him. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that while Democrats have had a lot of success in Montana, their victories are often pluralities or very slim majorities. I have to wonder if Wicks is going to end up being somewhat of a spoiler, and if Quist will win with 47-49% of the vote...

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Yeah, I think people are assuming that these "scandals" have much more impact than they actually do. Pianoforte is favored, but I wouldn't count Quist out yet.

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I also feel like there's more uncertainty in this race. I could see anything from about a 10-point win for Pianoforte to about a 7-point win for Quist.

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Can Gianforte just behave himself for the next week? Doesn't he realize that if he loses, a BERNIECRAT gets elected? This is honestly getting a little scary.

Stop.

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Can Gianforte just behave himself for the next week? Doesn't he realize that if he loses, a BERNIECRAT gets elected? This is honestly getting a little scary.

Stop.

I'll stop when I feel like stopping.

I guess that means never. Neat.

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Quist only winning the early vote by 5 would probably mean that he'd lose.

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This is just plain weird.

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That audio is pretty damning. Hope Jacobs is alright...

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Haven't read all the pages, but a lot of them.  I'm surprised nobody thought this: Gianforte likely responded with his (alleged) assault and battery because he was under intense stress caused by the surprising closeness of the race.  I think it's clear he wasn't about to handily win.

Maybe. The hilarious thing is that we will never really know what would have happened without this incident. I guess we should pay a lot of attention to the early vote as it comes in.

That's a good point. Under normal circumstances, it seems like about a 10-point lead for Quist in the early vote would suggest a very close race, is that accurate?

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Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, some people might stay level-headed and keep in mind how unrepresentative early returns can be, but we all know how much of Atlas will react later tonight.

If Quist is ahead by more than 10%: OMG! Quistslide here we come! Bye-bye, Crazy Greg!

If Gianforte ever takes the lead: OMG! Quist is done!

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Deer Lodge is 62-29 Quist.

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Can we at least wait until more votes are in before chicken little-ing? Apparently not.

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OMFGZ! Quist overperforming Bullock in Sheridan!!!!11!!!!

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Did Chouteau just tighten?

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Can we not call this yet and simply wait for more results? Geez...

Yeah, I mean, it doesn't look great for Quist, but we can't be sure yet. I doubt that Big Horn will stay the way it is...

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Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, you tried, TN Vol.

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Apparently, all the precincts in Liberty county are reporting, and Wicks got 16.6% there! Any reason why he'd do so well there specifically?

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If MT chooses to elect a criminal congressman, then they deserve him. It's a sad thing to witness.

This is why you lost.

Montana's newly elected congressman may have assaulted someone, but a Democratic poster said voters deserve who they vote for, and I found that mean, so Democrats are the real bad guys!!!!