MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Question: why is Curtis considered such a bad candidate?

She got like the worst possible performance for a MT Dem in her last run for Senate.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Sanders only won MT 52-44. It's not the south, but it's not KS or UT either.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

@TNVOL: Saying Tester isn't a moderate is just stupid.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

Tester already has a significant advantage.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

I think Tester is in the best position of the 5 Romney state Dems up in 2018.  It's a close call with Manchin, but WV is just so far gone now.  If Tester doesn't win, none of them do IMO.  Sherrod Brown might even be more likely to lose, as he seems eerily similar to Feingold's position in 2010.

Brown's position isn't even remotely close to Feingold's; the Ohio Senate race (assuming Mandel is the Republican nominee) starts off lean D and could conceivably enter solid likely D territory by Election Day.

The way Feingold was viewed in 2009 was "Well maybe he could be beaten, but not with this crop of candidates". Then he lost the next year. People saying Brown is okay because Mandel does seem similar.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It doesn't mean Tester is safe, but it's going to be hard to find a good attack line against the guy. He's pro-coal and pro-gun.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm not making an endorsement.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I've stated to the limited audiences on #southernchat for a while now that I would vote Gianforte here because Quist is a Berniecrat. Now that the race is decided and Atlas can't blame the result on my posts, time to say it on here:

I endorse Gianforte for Congress.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I've stated to the limited audiences on #southernchat for a while now that I would vote Gianforte here because Quist is a Berniecrat. Now that the race is decided and Atlas can't blame the result on my posts, time to say it on here:

I endorse Gianforte for Congress.

So, uh, you endorsing the idea that people shouldn't retire because Noah worked until age 600, then?

No. I just don't endorse Berniecrats. They're nothing but a bunch of socialists. And Gianforte is just your typical republican, he's not going to join the freedom caucus or anything like that.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This story isn't being reported very thoroughly in local media and I would be surprised if this changed anyone's vote. Also, you can call Rob Quist many things, but "Socialist" isn't one of them. The man is basically a generic Democrat, and his voting record wouldn't be any different than Ossoff's, who Wulfric seems to be endorsing enthusiastically.

I've made clear on IRC that he's not my favorite Dem. But if Dems don't pick up the seat, I don't think they get the house in '18. And they need to get it so we can stop Trump. I'm committed to Ossoff to achieve that goal.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democratic internal has Pianoforte up 49/43.

Congrats Congressman Gianforte! This race is over!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

   I'm wondering whether having a pollster include a candidate who isn't on the ballot, nor even running as a write in candidate as a response possibility represents a new low in the industry.

Well, PPP polled Harambe in the Presidential race last year, and I'm pretty sure he wasn't running.

Yeah, but it was done as a side question - they still asked their sample about the real race.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Unless a Republican in Montana holds consistent double digit leads in the polls, they aren't safe. This race certainly isn't over yet, even the MT GOP knows this.

If a democratic internal has Gianforte +7, the actual state of things is probably around Gianforte +12.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

We've known that for LONG time, Harry. Some actual news now, please?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I know Donal Trump is President, but I honestly don't get how this is still competitive given Quist's history.

Montana is a swing state for non-presidential races.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looking forward to the Gianforte landslide!!!!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looking forward to the Gianforte landslide!!!!

If you define a landslide as 1-5 points while getting 48-49% of the vote, go ahead.

If Democrat newspapers are endorsing Gianforte, he probably has a good shot at a 10 point or 12 point win, and that's big for MT in non-presidential races.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^^ Since you're clearly at it again, I'd like a response to this:

Wulfric, do even know what socialism is? Define it in a sentence or two without hitting up Google or Wikipedia.

As I'm referring to Socialism by Association here, not Socialism by Admission, I will refer to my previously stated definition:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quist qualifies under 1).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The GOP should be more concerned about this race than about GA-6. Montana has been a swing state for non-presidential elections for a very long time, while GA-6 has yet to actually elect a democrat. Plus, Ossoff is just a standard democrat with no ties to socialism.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Can Gianforte just behave himself for the next week? Doesn't he realize that if he loses, a BERNIECRAT gets elected? This is honestly getting a little scary.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Can Gianforte just behave himself for the next week? Doesn't he realize that if he loses, a BERNIECRAT gets elected? This is honestly getting a little scary.

Since you didn't respond last time -

^^^ Since you're clearly at it again, I'd like a response to this:

Wulfric, do even know what socialism is? Define it in a sentence or two without hitting up Google or Wikipedia.

I responded in the appropriate context for this thread above. Please read before replying.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Can Gianforte just behave himself for the next week? Doesn't he realize that if he loses, a BERNIECRAT gets elected? This is honestly getting a little scary.

Stop.

I'll stop when I feel like stopping.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

...No one cares about smoking pot.  Anyone who insists otherwise, I invite them to 2017.

Yeah, this. If Gianforte is seriously going to attack Quist over pot usage, he should win an award for stupidity.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ except for the R counting biases in GA, VA, WI, MI, CO, MO.