MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The Other Castro]

Denise Juneau might run again for MT-AL if Zinke leaves.

[The Other Castro]

White Nationalist Richard Spencer thinking of running.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/richard-spencer-white-nationalist-congress_us_58540839e4b0b3ddfd8c2f4b?khc1yynjws7qr529

[The Other Castro]

Congressional Leadership Fund (R) has an ad out attacking Quist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUy4ZjYLUPw

[The Other Castro]

Gianforte says he has enough commitments from voting delegates for the nomination.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article136733178.html

[The Other Castro]

The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Agreed on your points about GOP problems, but calling this any more than Tilt R feels very generous to Democrats.

[The Other Castro]

Gianforte wins on the 1st ballot.

[The Other Castro]

On the topic of turnout, doesn't the outcome of the mail-in ballot scandal affect that partially. If they do choose to use them that might give Democrats a better turnout edge.

I'm weighting the results to 2014 Montana actual voters and 2014 Montana registered voters, as reported by the November 2014 Census Population Survey.  So far, there isn't much of difference between using either metric - about two points in the most recent data dump.  167 of the expected 500+ respondents have responded so far.  105 of them didn't choose the "I'm not likely to vote" option.  The overall results so far are... interesting.

Completely random guess: Wicks the Libertarian is doing unusually well and Quist is leading.

[The Other Castro]

Wow. I highly doubt Quist will win by that much, but he is probably ahead at the moment.

[The Other Castro]

I thought I would poll Montana for this race as well to see if these results could be recreated, and what I ended up with was very interesting. All of the information on analyzing raw data came from cinyc, who was a huge help in making all of this. Links to the Google Survey and cinyc's spreadsheet with all the information are at the bottom.

"Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. If this special election were held today, who would you vote for?"

Rob Quist (Democratic Party)
Greg Gianforte (Republican Party)
Mark Wicks (Libertarian Party)
I will not be voting in this election

334 people were polled, with 104 of the 334 selecting "I will not be voting in this election". Following the same weights as in the previous poll posted, the weighted results were: TIE

Rob Quist (DemocraticParty) - 47%
Greg Gianforte (Republican Party) - 47%
Mark Wicks (Libertarian Party) - 6%

Unweighted, it was also tied 47-47-7 (rounding errors led to a sum of greater than 100%). Quist actually led in raw numbers by exactly one single vote (107-108). Gianforte led for most of the duration of the poll, with the results becoming narrower at the end. The poll ran from 3/14-16 Mountain Time.

East (Weighted; N=85): Gianforte +20 (Unweighted: Gianforte +18)
Gianforte 58%
Quist 38%
Wicks 4%

West (Weighted; N=141): Quist +16 (Unweighted: Quist +11)
Quist 55%   
Gianforte 39%   
Wicks 6%

https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=73vzmhbs6xqze7qc4a6qifsigq

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XUxjxg70OhTrVtm6K2HulJHaRDVbuD_VN_gPUxrNIUc/edit?usp=sharing

[The Other Castro]

Both this and the most recent attack on Gianforte by the MDP are non-stories. Nothing to see here.

Btw: Who is Wulfric endorsing in this race? I imagine both candidates aren't moderate enough for him?

Quist likes Bernie right? Because if that's the case, Wulfric would consider him a Socialist and probably wouldn't endorse him.

[The Other Castro]

DCCC putting $$$ into MT-AL:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rob-quist-montana-democrats_us_58f8d7e6e4b018a9ce58eb82?hzp

[The Other Castro]

DCCC is sending another $400K to Montana for Quist, bringing total investment to $600K.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_590943b3e4b05c39768423fc

[The Other Castro]

Dave Weigel‏ @daveweigel
Scoop: On donor call, Sen. Daines says VP Pence will come next week to campaign for #MTAL nominee Greg Gianforte. (Dems making it close.)

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/860526160828145665

[The Other Castro]

Daines and Gianforte say it's a single digit race.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/05/05/pence-set-to-stump-for-republican-in-montanas-open-house-race/?utm_term=.4a6aeba85058

[The Other Castro]

New Gravis poll coming soon:

Gravis Marketing‏ @GravisMarketing
Montana Poll being released on Monday will show @RobQuistforMT  gaining ground.

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/860859344526729216

[The Other Castro]

New poll from Senate Majority PAC (D):

Gianforte - 49%
Quist - 43%
Undecided - 8%

Among "Enthusiastic Voters":
Gianforte - 48%
Quist - 47%
Undecided - 5%

Poll conducted over April 25-27.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/quist-gianforte-montana-poll

[The Other Castro]

I have a post-AHCA vote Google poll about to finish up, I'll post it when it's ready.

[The Other Castro]

Thank you cinyc for the help again in weighting these numbers. Here is my poll of the MT-AL Special Election taken from 5/8-5/9. The results below have been weighted for age, sex, and region, and non-voters have been removed. Result: Quist +5

Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. If this special election were held today, who would you vote for?

Rob Quist (Democrat) - 48%
Greg Gianforte (Republican) - 43%
Mark Wicks (Libertarian) - 8%

Again, we see a major regional gap as in the weighted results, it's Quist +29 in the West and Gianforte +29 in the East.

241/339 respondents selected a candidate.  

https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=fotq254zv734n2hrx76hgxtbjm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L6mfiNqEPPu3slmyCt2mQc6upLItAMp701k9CjaYct0/edit?usp=sharing

[The Other Castro]

Wait wtf is this my poll from earlier? I can't really tell since I'm on my phone.

[The Other Castro]

Next weekend, Bernie Sanders is going to the Montana cities of Missoula, Butte, Billings, and Bozeman for Quist.

[The Other Castro]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

We've known that for LONG time, Harry. Some actual news now, please?

Harry Enten isn't a reporter, he just gives lukewarm takes.

[The Other Castro]

The outcome will almost certainly be in the single digits, and probably within five points either way. Gianforte appears to have the advantage, but it's completely possible that Quist could win.

[The Other Castro]

Rob Quist raised $500,000 over three days after House passed health care bill.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/montana-house-race-is-gauge-on-trump-test-for-democrats-1494873817

[The Other Castro]

Yeah Bacon and cynic, that's my poll from earlier that someone from the Bernie subreddit found and posted, and added to the Wikipedia page.

[The Other Castro]

That's just...mean.