MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Mr. Smith]

Ya' know, I don't think I'm gonna want them accolades if Ossoff really does end up doing better than Quist because of this type of stuff.

[Mr. Smith]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

You don't say?

But apparently Enten doesn't know anything about (MT) politics if he thinks Tester is heavily favored just because the special election is close. The people in the comment section predicting Tester has nothing to worry about and will win by double digits are delusional.

Tester was the one who really pushed hard for Quist to be the nominee, and Quist has to thank him a lot fot that. If the Democrats lose this race, Tester definitely won't be "happy", even if the result is close. In many ways, this is a proxy war between Daines and Tester/Bullock - as you know, Pianoforte and Daines are close friends and Daines convinced PF to run for this seat. Bullock and Tester supported Quist against Curtis and did a lot to get him nominated.

It would appear that Curtis was the one who should've won the nomination then.

[Mr. Smith]

More proof that Amanda Curtis was the better idea.

[Mr. Smith]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

[Mr. Smith]

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

Oh, feel free to disagree if you want, but that's not only been my impression. He's done much worse than I thought he would do at the beginning of this race, after he won the Democratic nomination. Quist hasn't been clear about where he stands on several issues (most notably gun rights and foreign policy), and he just kept repeating his "But Gianforte is from New Jersey!" and "But Russia" talking points over and over again, especially during the debate, which was rather disappointing. His claim that Gianforte had "Russian ties" was basically a lie. Honestly, Amanda Curtis (who is one of my favorite MT Democrats, so I might be biased) comes across as much more authentic than Quist.

Say what you want about Gianforte, but he's done a pretty good job so far, even though I liked him more when he ran for governor. There's a reason why three of Montana's largest newspapers have endorsed him.

But like you said, Quist's base is probably still very motivated and will turn out for him on election day, and "candidate quality" is often overrated anyway.

Curtis lost her senate race by 20 points in 2014 though

She also had no time to really build-up as she came in at the last minute, AND John Walsh's scandal really tainted that race, AND it was 2014.

Mark Pryor did about the same with none of those things against him.

Try again.

[Mr. Smith]

1.5 hours left...pity I'll be at work all the way until 2 AM local (that's 1 AM for me)

[Mr. Smith]

Disappointing that he didn't quite reach my last prediction, but he did better than I thought he would right before the body slam.

[Mr. Smith]

Disappointing that he didn't quite reach my last prediction, but he did better than I thought he would right before the body slam.