MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The_Doctor]

Gianaforte (can we just call him "Pianaforte"? It delights my ears and makes me think of Lumiere from Beauty and the Beast) looks like he's still running a decent race. Nothing has emerged to make me think that Quist pulls out a shock upset; still looks like Pianaforte by 5-7 points.

Montana is a pretty populist state but I don't think they're that ready for Bernieism.

[The_Doctor]

Rob Quist @RobQuistforMT

**UPDATE** Saturday's Billings rally with @BernieSanders has moved to MetraPark, due to overwhelming excitement for Rob! #BigSkyBern

The Missoula rally was moved to a bigger venue, too.

Say what you want about him, but Bernie can fill a room pretty much anywhere in the United States.

Rob Quist @RobQuistforMT

**UPDATE** Saturday's Billings rally with @BernieSanders has moved to MetraPark, due to overwhelming excitement for Rob! #BigSkyBern

The Missoula rally was moved to a bigger venue, too.

Crowd size is not necessarily an indicator. I still feel, barring a major collapse among GOP support, Gianaforte will win. Polling seems close, but I don't see anything indicating Quist is ahead.

[The_Doctor]

Can Gianforte just behave himself for the next week? Doesn't he realize that if he loses, a BERNIECRAT gets elected? This is honestly getting a little scary.

Stop.

I'll stop when I feel like stopping.

I guess that means never. Neat.

It is kind of amusing that any politician with ties or support to Bernie Sanders can't be supported but you can support a radical extreme religious person that says dinosaurs were passengers of Noah's ark, the earth is 6000 years old, Social Security, Medicare & the concept of retirement is against the bible, who supports Trumpcare because it gives him & his billionaire friends 100's of Billions of $ in tax breaks.

Any1 but a Berniecrat !

This isn't really the forum to do this.

[The_Doctor]

Is it bad I just read MT Treasurer in this thread (well a few other people)? But from all the posts it just feels like a Gianaforte win by 4-5% still and the Republican base hasn't abandoned ship completely…

[The_Doctor]

Alex Isensadt
@politicoalex

NEW: Fresh GOP pollig has party's lead in Montana special election down to 2-4 pts. TIGHT, with Gianoforte expected to get less than 50%.

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Who is he talking about?

[The_Doctor]

Given the Republican base's anger at the media why would this really doom Gianaforte? It might turn out a few Democrats but its not necessarily a game changer (though it should be and is despicable).

Realistically it won't affect things, not with all the VBM in and most people won't remember by day after tomorrow.

[The_Doctor]

even if this is going to be a major story, it's too late.

It's going to be on the radio when voters drive to the polls tomorrow.

I think most everyone has voted.

[The_Doctor]

What % of votes have been returned? I know its more than 2014 but less than 2016.

[The_Doctor]

A question. Doesn't the GOP electorate vote on Election Day, while the Dems turn out in the early vote? I know Trump was trailing in FL, and other battleground states before the ED vote. I don't know how Montana voting patterns so I'm curious.

[The_Doctor]

A question. Doesn't the GOP electorate vote on Election Day, while the Dems turn out in the early vote? I know Trump was trailing in FL, and other battleground states before the ED vote. I don't know how Montana voting patterns so I'm curious.

Well, like I said before, the early vote is usually counted first on election day, and the most Democratic votes almost always come in first. Bullock was up 13 points (55-42) with roughly 30% of the vote in in 2012, and he only won by 4 in the end.

Ahhh, OK, so yes, the Dems vote early, GOP does ED. That makes more sense about your earlier comment about Quist leading narrowly in the early vote.

[The_Doctor]

Gianaforte's response is ... not ... good. It contradicts the audio and the police are holding a press conference. Well, this ought to make Election Day in Montana a lively affair.

So, this comes down to how many Republicans turn out to vote? I heard Bullock led by 14% on early vote (similar to MT Treasurer's statement). So if Bullock led by 4% in the final vote, it means the election day vote must have been, what, +10-15% GOP? (I should look up the Early Vote in MT in '16)

[The_Doctor]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

It's not physically possible for most folks to body slam an adult male. If Gianforte can pull that off he is a major stud to be sure.

2017 GOP folks. Beta males need not apply. Must physically assault reporter to receive "stud" status.

lol, good catch. He edited it out. Which is funny.

[The_Doctor]

Quist tweets "Tomorrow is your opportunity to vote to protect the lives of Montanans. Find your polling place & vote."

I chuckled at the subtweet.

[The_Doctor]

Is Jacobs pressing charges? I'm seeing that now.

[The_Doctor]

Let me get us back on topic. Is Jacobs pressing charges? I'm seeing conflicting information.

[The_Doctor]

Why wasn't Gianaforte arrested? Does that mean Jacobs has to press charges first? Damn, now - wait, why am I obsessed with a Montana Special?

Either way, this is like the Train Wreck of Montana.

[The_Doctor]

It's moments like these where you would love accurate polling to see what the race was like before this incident. If emerosn and gravis are right and it's a 15 point lead for G, then it would be pretty tough for this to actually lead to a quist win. If the race is/was within 5 or 6, it's quist's to lose now.

ing polling.

Didn't the GOP internal poll say that Gianaforte was under 50% and the race was 2-4%? This was NOT the Gravis poll. I referenced it a few pages back. It would also dovetail with MT Treasurer's take.

[The_Doctor]

Fox on their website

“At that point, Gianforte grabbed Jacobs by the neck with both hands and slammed him into the ground behind him. Faith, Keith and I watched in disbelief as Gianforte then began punching the man, as he moved on top the reporter and began yelling something to the effect of "I'm sick and tired of this!"“

[The_Doctor]

Yeah, uh, if that holds he's going to be resigning before getting to Congress. That's a damning account and worse than body slamming. That's full blown assault.

[The_Doctor]

So uh, how would a second special work?

[The_Doctor]

Haven't read all the pages, but a lot of them.  I'm surprised nobody thought this: Gianforte likely responded with his (alleged) assault and battery because he was under intense stress caused by the surprising closeness of the race.  I think it's clear he wasn't about to handily win.

That's actually a good point. If he was coasting he would've been much calmer. He ran for governor last year, losing by 4 and I don't recall reading about any outbursts.

[The_Doctor]

Haven't read all the pages, but a lot of them.  I'm surprised nobody thought this: Gianforte likely responded with his (alleged) assault and battery because he was under intense stress caused by the surprising closeness of the race.  I think it's clear he wasn't about to handily win.

That's actually a good point. If he was coasting he would've been much calmer. He ran for governor last year, losing by 4 and I don't recall reading about any outbursts.

Maybe he's just actually sick and tired of obnoxious behavior by journalists? The dude clearly has an anger problem. The guy barged in - that is confirmed. Crazy Greg proceeded to snap. I wouldn't read too much into this, we'll get our answer tomorrow.

Yeah this is reasonable. He's not gonna be in Congress anyway.

[The_Doctor]

So we're all agreed, Democratic pick up or second special in August?

[The_Doctor]

Featuring:
Greg Pianoforte (as the piano)
Piano men (as the GOP)
Frank Reynolds (as the Dems)
Charlie (as Ben Jacobs)
Mac (as Rob Quist)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO66-ic9C1E

ROFLMAO, now that was good. Well done.

Anyway guys, see you tomorrow. Gonna be a busy day obviously, and I want to get up early. Have fun.

No! We want up to the minute field observations from the ground!

[The_Doctor]

Shut the eff up about your arguments. I want to talk about the election. Take it to the General election discussion to troll and talk smack.