MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Is this election all mail-in? I remember there was a kerfuffle over whether it would be or not, but I never heard the resolution.

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Gabriel Debenedetti‏ @gdebenedetti  
Some R operatives breathing small sighs of relief that Comey won't testify Wed, just before MT votes: may not've hurt, def wouldn't help.

Josh Barro @jbarro
Josh Barro Retweeted Gabriel Debenedetti
Leaves the newscycle unobstructed for the CBO score saying what the AHCA will do to healthcare

Ben Jacobs‏ @Bencjacobs
Ben Jacobs Retweeted Josh Barro
Which is a much bigger deal in Montana

A lot of votes will probably be cemented before this comes out. It could sway day-of voters who are still on the fence though.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Between these Google polls, Gravis, and the CBO report coming out on the 24th, I have no idea what's going on up there.

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Article on Lake County's predicting power:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/single-county-watch-montanas-special-election/story?id=47570773

That was a really good read. Thanks for sharing!

Questions Continue to Swell: No Record That Rob Quist Registered for Selective Service Says National Archives
Washington Free Beacon/Brent Scher
May 24, 2017 5:00 am

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This is probably the last oppo dump on Quist - and likely too late to have any effect anyway.

So, he didn't register during the Vietnam era? That would make me want to vote for him even more.

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Trump's recorded call going out to Montanans is against exploiting loopholes in state law. That same law is why polls have been few and rubbish.

Edit: WaPo is garbage at titles

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Well damn. That's big. We'll see what kind of effect it has tomorrow. Lots have voted already, but there's still lots that will vote tomorrow. Hopefully it will make the morning papers.

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It's moments like these where you would love accurate polling to see what the race was like before this incident. If emerosn and gravis are right and it's a 15 point lead for G, then it would be pretty tough for this to actually lead to a quist win. If the race is/was within 5 or 6, it's quist's to lose now.

ing polling.

Have to agree with you on that.

Safe D

My god people, stop overeacting. Is this great for Quist, yes. But stop blowing this out of proportion, this race is still VERY MUCH IN PLAY, pure tossup.

Especially with most votes being locked in already.

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Greg Fortissimo

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373,831 Montanas cast ballots in the 2014 general election.  516,901 Montanans cast ballots in the 2016 general election.

So, at 2014 turnout, you're looking at about 116,000 election day voters.  At 2016 turnout, about 259,000.  Given absentee return rates, the answer is probably somewhere in between, closer to the 2014 numbers than the 2016 numbers.

If 2014 is the model, about 69% of voters have already voted.  If 2016 is the model, about 50% have already voted.  The answer, again, will likely be somewhere in between, closer to the 2014 numbers than the 2016 numbers.

Split the difference and call it 60% have voted? That's still 40% (at least one third in all likelihood). Maybe 180,000 voters tomorrow? I'd be happy going to bed tonight if I was Rob Quist.

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Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Edit: There are 699,207 Montana registered voters as of 5/23/17.  The percentage of those who have already voted is 36.87%.

So roughly 1/3 of the vote still out. So this would probably be very close assuming the election day Republican turnout is down. I just don't know who won early voting because of the polling.

I gave up on trying to figure out what the polls were saying.

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We did though earlier. Somewhere in the 50's pages

Oh wow, I see it ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5665079#msg5665079 )

This night's events have taken up over 20 pages? Jesus. That's like election night.

Crazy, isn't it?

Did anything come out of the Sheriff's press conference?

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Well, it's official now. Assaulterforte is a criminal, and anyone who votes for him is endorsing criminal activity.

I prefer Fortissimo, myself.

Can they play that ad on the radio as well? Not sure if there's FCC rules against airing it in the radio or not.

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Gianforte must appear in court by June 7

What a night.  Whoever wins, I'm thankful for all the laughs.

Yep. Can't say I expected this. What a crazy few hours. Nice to have some excitement that isn't Trump related. Hope the reporter is ok though.

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Gianforte must appear in court by June 7

What a night.  Whoever wins, I'm thankful for all the laughs.

Yep. Can't say I expected this. What a crazy few hours. Nice to have some excitement that isn't Trump related. Hope the reporter is ok though.

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Garbage polls+ EV leans D+ ED vote affected by recent events= Moderate Quist Win.

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http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/early-turnout-at-metrapark-polls-is-light-despite-gianforte-s/article_ec11bb83-c76e-51a5-bf93-f11b9f1f6c2d.html

couldn't that be a sign of republican depression?

Oh, not saying this is good news for anyone, but someone asked for "early turnout reports".

@Arch: NYTimes, Decision Desk and the SOS page are all good websites. Also the AP if you don't care about the county by county results.

Eww. We have to know how Lake County votes!

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thanks a lot, MT!

since i am greedy....is MT "small" enough that all counties are necessary or...which one are the biggues?

https://www.montana-demographics.com/counties_by_population Yellowstone, Missoula, Gallatin are the largest by population. Most counties are big but the whole state is fairly rural and spreadout so county-wise it wouldn't make that much of a difference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_counties_in_Montana

Lake County has a history of closely tracking statewide results despite not being that demographically representative of the state (large Native American minority).

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Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, some people might stay level-headed and keep in mind how unrepresentative early returns can be, but we all know how much of Atlas will react later tonight.

If Quist is ahead by more than 10%: OMG! Quistslide here we come! Bye-bye, Crazy Greg!

If Gianforte ever takes the lead: OMG! Quist is done!

The correct term is Violent Greg.

Nah. It's Greg Fortissimo.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

     So a state with only a million people is a slow-as-molasses counter. Sad!

Hopefully it will be quicker since it's the only thing on the ballot.

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even better:




who is this "lifezette"-licking gentleman?




Derek is the Director of Elections at the Montana Secretary of State's office. What a world. #mtpol #mtal @GregForMontana
https://twitter.com/jessekodadek/status/867810653859307524



mt seems to be as corrupt and "small" as austria.

That's worrying.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

people have been calling in asking if they could change their vote - according to CNN, and only 1 voter out of 75 said they changed their vote from GG to RQ and Pubs tended to agree with GG and encouraged his behavior according to Kyung Lah

Still the question of how many went to Wicks or stayed home.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Cool it, the vote isn't even in and you're overreacting with a blazing hot take.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Can we at least wait until more votes are in before chicken little-ing? Apparently not.

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6/20 precincts in Lake reporting. 54-41 Gianforte.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Not liking Quist's chances.