MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MT Treasurer]

I think that Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, West Virginia and Ohio are all better pickup opportunities for Republicans than Montana, even though the race should be quite competitive, even without Zinke. I'd rate it a Tossup for now. We'll just have to see, I guess. Neither party should feel too confident about this race at this point.

Linke

Haha, I see what you did there. Just noticed this now.

[MT Treasurer]

Tim Fox or Greg Gianforte would certainly make this a Tossup as well. Tester is still quite vulnerable. And barring a disastrous Trump presidency, Democrats aren't going to win MT-AL.

Edit: Whoa, now that I think about it... Gianforte running for Senate in 2018 and Fox running for governor in 2020 would kinda make sense.

Gianforte who underperformed Donald Trump by 27 points this year... yeah okay.

That's not how this works. Bullock is a popular incumbent who wasn't going to be beaten by any Republican. Fox MIGHT have done one or two points better, but that's about it. Popular Democratic incumbent governors in Montana don't lose reelection. Gianforte was not a perfect candidate, but he didn't really run a BAD campaign either. Had this been an open seat, Gianforte probably would have won the election.

Also try to find a better Republican candidate.... other than maybe Tim Fox, there really isn't one.

[MT Treasurer]

O'Neill the most electable Republican? Come on, guys... he'd almost certainly lose, maybe even in a good year for Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

I love how Atlas thinks that every candidate who lost in a purple state must have run a terrible campaign. Again, Democratic incumbent governors in Montana don't lose reelection. Tim Fox wouldn't have beaten Bullock either.

[MT Treasurer]

State Senator Ed Buttrey (R-Great Falls) has become the first contender to jump into the race for MT-AL.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/ed-buttrey-becomes-first-candidate-to-announce-for-replacing-zinke/article_1b37cd40-565e-58fc-b340-1f553c7aff4e.html

Nice. Certainly hope he gets the nomination.

[MT Treasurer]

Senate President-elect Scott Sales (R-Bozeman) is also running:

http://www.krtv.com/story/34088260/state-sen-buttrey-of-great-falls-will-vie-for-zinke-seat

[MT Treasurer]

Libertarian Rick Breckenridge will run again

Fagg not running

Also, here is a list of all the candidates that have thrown their name into the hat:

-Ed Buttrey (R): currently represents Great Falls, Senate District 13
-Scott Sales (R): current President of the Montana Senate
-Daniel Zolnikov (R): currently represents Billings, House District 45
-Eugene Graf IV (R): homebuilder, owner of E.G. Construction in Bozeman
-Gary Carlson (R): Publisher, White Hat Express
-Ken Miller (R): Former GOP chair and state senator
-Amanda Curtis (D): currently represents Montana District 74
-Casey Schreiner (D): currently represents Great Falls
-Kelly McCarthy (D): currently represents Billings
-Rob Quist (D): famed musician, poet, and producer
-John Meyer (D): Bozeman attorney
-Zeno Baucus (D): son of Max Baucus

http://www.kulr8.com/story/34198488/what-to-expect-in-montanas-special-election

[MT Treasurer]

I wonder if this is about to be the 2018 Democratic equivalent to Scott Brown's special election upset of 2009.

Nah, if Quist wins the general (which could easily happen), it will have nothing to do with Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

Will Zeno's last name help him (in the primary and the general)?

Nah, not really. Keep in mind that he isn't even in, he just said that he is considering entering the race. But I have my doubts that he will run - even the Baucus family (and yes, they are terrible) knows that Zeno would almost certainly lose this race in an embarrassing fashion.

And regarding Gianforte.. well, he's obviously the favorite to win the GOP nomination. He would have won in 2016 had this been an open governor's seat, but Montana isn't going to vote out an incumbent Democratic governor who is reasonably popular among his progressive base as well as moderates and who even many Republicans don't mind. Most posters here tend to forget that gubernatorial races aren't really that partisan and usually not affected by coattails (see VT, NH, and especially WV and MT as examples). Montana is very purple on the statewide level and Democrats not named Hillary Clinton have a relatively high floor in the state. While Trump's big win (which, more than anything else, really was a rejection of Hillary Clinton, who is the worst possible fit for this state) obviously didn't hurt Gianforte, it also didn't give him a boost on election day, and I disagree that it got him a lot more support than he would have had otherwise, especially given how polarized MT still is. Gianforte didn't run a perfect campaign, but it wasn't really that bad either. Maybe Fox would have done a bit better, but he wouldn't have beat Bullock either.

Anyway, take this with a grain of salt, but the general feeling among some party supporters and insiders here seems to be that the Democrats will either nominate Amanda Curtis or Rob Quist, but more likely the former. I don't see her winning the general, especially if her opponent is Gianforte or Buttrey, but who knows. A Quist vs. Gianforte race would be epic, though.

[MT Treasurer]

and I disagree that it got him a lot more support than he would have had otherwise, especially given how polarized MT still is.

Well that would be because you don't believe in the idea of coattails, right?

Montana is a state that is generally not affected by "coattails". And yeah, like I said, the coattail effect was basically nonexistent in many states that had gubernatorial races in 2016 - Vermont, New Hampshire, Montana, West Virginia, etc. I guess you could argue about Indiana, I don't know what happened there (then again, Gregg was - just like Bayh - quite overhyped). It's a different story in the Senate races, but I wasn't even talking about them.

But this typical Atlas idea that Gianforte must have run a terrible campaign just because he lost by 4 points to a popular incumbent Democrat in a purple state is ridiculous.

[MT Treasurer]

Straw poll of MT Democrats shows close race, Quist leading Curtis by 7 votes

[MT Treasurer]

Scott Sales (R) out

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, Obama appointee Dan West officially in

[MT Treasurer]

What Heisenberg said. Gianforte is not a terrible candidate, but a Democratic populist, progressive campaign would work much better against him than against a relatively moderate Republican like Buttrey. Buttrey would still be a solid conservative in Congress, though. The Democrat would just use the same attack ads against Gianforte, it was already pretty ugly in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

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[MT Treasurer]

Gianforte says he has enough commitments from voting delegates for the nomination.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article136733178.html

Ken Miller has claimed the same thing, one of them is lying

You mean Buttrey, right? Because Miller isn't going anywhere.

[MT Treasurer]

can someone sum up this race now that it's March 6?  

Well, yesterday the Democrats chose Rob Quist (somewhat famous songwriter, singer and guitarist) to be their nominee for the special election. Today the Republicans will chose their nominee at the convention, it looks like it will be Greg Gianforte (businessman and candidate for governor in 2016). The general election should be quite competitive, this is definitely a race to watch.

The special election will be held on May 25.

[MT Treasurer]

Always told you so. The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here, this is such a stupid strategy.

[MT Treasurer]

First round ballots are being counted right now.

[MT Treasurer]

@TNVOL: Saying Tester isn't a moderate is just stupid.

Anyway...

Libertarians nominated cattle rancher and writer Mark Wicks today

So it's Gianforte (R) vs. Quist (D) vs. Wicks (L)

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, thanks for doing this! Really looking forward to the results. I wouldn't underestimate Democratic turnout here, though. Generally, the difference between the composition of a midterm and presidential year electorate isn't that significant in Montana, but still...

[MT Treasurer]

So I see this thread is going well... Anyway, campaign mailings and internet ads on the Quist side aren't being reported, so it's not as if he's spending nothing. I'm highly skeptical that money will make a big difference in this race anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

So I see this thread is going well... Anyway, campaign mailings and internet ads on the Quist side aren't being reported, so it's not as if he's spending nothing. I'm highly skeptical that money will make a big difference in this race anyway.

That's definitely true. In fact, _(not)Gov. Gianforte can tell you that money isn't everything.

TNVol: You're obviously on the other side of the aisle, but do you have any idea what Quist's campaign infrastructure looks like? I'm not sure I trust a 70yo first time politician to be a champion organizer, but the party could have put him in good hands.

I don't know much about it, but he's holding many campaign rallies and obviously has a sizable number of volunteers. The MDP is 100% united behind Quist, so that's not an issue. I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Honestly I think Quist could pull this off without outside help.

This, so much.

Also, Gianforte has launched his second ad.

[MT Treasurer]

Both this and the most recent attack on Gianforte by the MDP are non-stories. Nothing to see here.

Btw: Who is Wulfric endorsing in this race? I imagine both candidates aren't moderate enough for him?