MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

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Linke

This shakes things up a bit. Who runs in the special election, and who runs against Tester?

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I heard a rumor the guy who shot Bin Laden might run.

I think Fox wants to be Governor

Zinke has said so himself

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The GOP will find a good challenger for Tester and if everything goes normal, they will be the slightly favourite to win the seat.

I think it's pretty clear that nothing is going "normal" in American politics right now.

Not that that means Tester is definitely going to win. He could lose in a landslide for all I know.

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Do we know anything about O'Neill's politics or political skills?

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Do we know anything about O'Neill's politics or political skills?

Zinke has been actively recruiting him and his appearances on Fox news suggests that he is fairly conservative. Also Tammy Duckworth shows that an inspiring military background can help overcome a lack of political skills

I don't think Duckworth proved that. She underperformed in her election to the House, and she only beat Kirk in a landslide because he made a racist comment and it's Illinois.

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Do we know anything about O'Neill's politics or political skills?

Zinke has been actively recruiting him and his appearances on Fox news suggests that he is fairly conservative. Also Tammy Duckworth shows that an inspiring military background can help overcome a lack of political skills

I don't think Duckworth proved that. She underperformed in her election to the House, and she only beat Kirk in a landslide because he made a racist comment and it's Illinois.

What does Duckworth have to do to prove herself, at this point?

I'm just saying that Duckworth didn't prove that having a cool military story automatically wins elections, which is what pandaguineapig implied.

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I mean technically Zinke could still run. It's not unheard of for people to be in the cabinet for two years and then move on.

The fact that he's actively encouraging someone else to run makes me suspect he's not interested, though.

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White Nationalist Richard Spencer thinking of running.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/richard-spencer-white-nationalist-congress_us_58540839e4b0b3ddfd8c2f4b?khc1yynjws7qr529

Hopefully a non-Nazi Republican beats him, and then loses to a Democrat. We don't need to mainstream those views.

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Brian Schweitzer or Linda McCulloch could win this.

I know nothing about McCulloch. I bet Schweitzer could win, but I doubt he'll run.

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Jesus, is everyone in Montana running for this seat?

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Zeno is a Greek name derived from Zeus.

ugh the Baucus family sucks

You have more achievements? Or judge people by names, not deeds?

Well Baucus was a pretty worthless Senator when he was in office, even by "moderate hero" standards, and he tried to get his wife confirmed to an office she wasn't confirmed. I have little confidence "Zeno" is going to be much better.

yes i know your schtick is to defend every single conservative democrat or liberal republican regardless of how worthwhile they actually are because that's what you do. and then act superior about it.

And i know your - accuse anybody you dislike with rather worthless accusations, pretending to be a sort of Supreme Court judge at least.. A freedom of opinion and speech doesn't give anybody right to slander..... It's not for you to judge who is worthless and who is not. First - do something HIMSELF - get a degree in serious science, get elected to somewhere, or something like that. AFTER that your opinion will have some weight. Before - zero.

I'm pretty sure Maxwell either has or is getting a degree. Not sure if it's in "serious science" or not.

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Is Quist still the Democrat you're most afraid of, TN?

Definitely. Maybe I'm overestimating him, but I think he could put up a good fight, which isn't something I can say of any other Democrat in this race. If the Democrats are smart, they'll nominate him.

Will Zeno's last name help him (in the primary and the general)?

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Straw poll of MT Democrats shows close race, Quist leading Curtis by 7 votes

Grain of salt, but good news!

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Question: why is Curtis considered such a bad candidate?

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Question: why is Curtis considered such a bad candidate?

She got like the worst possible performance for a MT Dem in her last run for Senate.

But it was 2014 and she was thrown in halfway through after a scandal, and she was running against a strong opponent.

I still think Quist would be better though.

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I feel better about this race because the MT Dems are a lot more competent than GA Dems.

At the convention to replace Walsh they chose Curtis, not exactly "competent"

Curtis is hardly a "perfect" candidate, but Atlas seems to have this strange idea that every candidate who once lost a (basically unwinnable) race is literally WORSE THAN AKIN!!!1! Same with Greg Gianforte. She has appeal among the progressive base in the state, which matters a lot, but I don't think she would win the general. But I'm going to say it again: Republicans can't take this race for granted, no matter which Democrat wins the nomination.

Anyway, thank God it's finally settled. I look forward to the coming two months.

I don't see anything about the convention having happened?

I think he means Zinke is gone and the election has a date.

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Another Republican is running, a veteran named Samuel Pascal Redfern.

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This is intense. I hope Quist pulls it out.

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Quist wins!!!!! Now onto the general election.

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Democrats have always done badly at the presidential level in Montana but well at the Congressional level. This is more true with the Senate than that House, but there's no reason why it needs to be.

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The NRCC is already attacking Quist:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The bolded part is kind of funny considering that Trump said the exact same thing.

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Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

So?

I haven't seen Curtis's video so I won't comment on it, but calling things "white-girl" is a thing that misogynists often do to disguise their misogyny as social awareness.

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Quist is precisely the kind of Democrat who can win in Montana, so I really hope he wins. I'd be curious to see how this could effect the GA-6 race, since that runoff will happen a few weeks after this election.

If Quist wins, are Democrats going to be energized and feel they can win in GA, or will Republicans panic and invest heavily in GA-6 in order to save face?

I think more reps panic but it could go the other way

Losing a statewide race in a rural 85%+ white state that swung massively to Trump would and should be a lot scarier for Republicans than losing GA-06.  The latter could just be a situation where the incumbent party is on demographic borrowed time without national implications.

Honestly either of them would be scary for Republicans on their own.

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I'd rate this as Lean R for now.

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I think there are some people who identify as bisexual but will tell you that they're really pansexual.