MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Mike Thick]

I'm far more hopeful about this race than GA-06.

Why? Montana swung 6 points to the right in 2016 giving Trump a 20 point win while GA-06 swung 21 points to the left, with Trump winning only by 1.5%. I realize that Democrats have won statewide in Montana many times and even just last election, but fighting the fundamentals of the state seems harder than in an individual district that trended largely in the positive direction.

He's basically the perfect candidate for the state and Montana Dems have had a very resilient Blue Dog streak through the Obama era and still managed multiple statewide wins.  Downballot Dem strength in MT can't be called a fluke anymore after Bullock cleared 50% running with Trump last November, and unlike in WV, they didn't have to practically run a 3rd party campaign to do it.  Gianforte is still favored, no doubt, but with Quist, Democratic odds just rose to 20-25% here.

Also going to note that Trump actually got a lower percentage of the vote there than Romney -- the increased margin is more reflective of Hillary's six-point dip than any significant Republican gains.

[Mike Thick]

I'm far more hopeful about this race than GA-06.

Why? Montana swung 6 points to the right in 2016 giving Trump a 20 point win while GA-06 swung 21 points to the left, with Trump winning only by 1.5%. I realize that Democrats have won statewide in Montana many times and even just last election, but fighting the fundamentals of the state seems harder than in an individual district that trended largely in the positive direction.

He's basically the perfect candidate for the state and Montana Dems have had a very resilient Blue Dog streak through the Obama era and still managed multiple statewide wins.  Downballot Dem strength in MT can't be called a fluke anymore after Bullock cleared 50% running with Trump last November, and unlike in WV, they didn't have to practically run a 3rd party campaign to do it.  Gianforte is still favored, no doubt, but with Quist, Democratic odds just rose to 20-25% here.

Also going to note that Trump actually got a lower percentage of the vote there than Romney -- the increased margin is more reflective of Hillary's six-point dip than any significant Republican gains.

Not true- Trump received 55.65%, while Romney received 55.30% in Montana.

Ah, I see -- the Wikipedia infoboxes lie once again

In any case, that's such an absurdly small difference between the two performances that it's likely meaningless

[Mike Thick]

Any Montana voters on Atlas, please consider this incident very carefully when voting. If you vote for Gianforte, you are endorsing this incident and saying it is a good thing. Vote for Wicks, or heck, even Quist, instead.

Even a Socialist^TM?

[Mike Thick]

Greg Gianbrusco

[Mike Thick]

Also, as someone else in IRC pointed out (forgive me; I forget who), this means that Gianforte will likely not run for Governor in 2020, meaning that Fox will probably do so rather than run against Tester. It's astonishing how one man's absolutely f-cking stupid actions will affect this entire state in the future.

That was me