MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Heisenberg]

I like CMR, but maybe she should stay in the House, she'd be a great Speaker. I'm kind of worried about the Special, plus the best tTester challenger has been removed from the field.

[Heisenberg]

Maybe Denny Rehberg will make a comeback and decide to run for his old house seat? 

Doubt it. He joined a lobbying firm IIRC.

[Heisenberg]

Republicans:
Neil Livingstone
Matthew Rosendale
Jon Sonju
Corey Stapleton

Democrats:
Linda McCulloch
John Morrison
Brian Schweitzer
John Walsh

John Walsh? You mean Mr. Plaigiarism? His career is over. Also, for Republicans, add Rob O'Neill, the SEAL who killed Osama.

[Heisenberg]

White Nationalist Richard Spencer thinking of running.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/richard-spencer-white-nationalist-congress_us_58540839e4b0b3ddfd8c2f4b?khc1yynjws7qr529

No no please please no.

[Heisenberg]

I heard a rumor the guy who shot Bin Laden might run.

I think Fox wants to be Governor

Zinke was trying to recruit that guy to run against Tester.  But he hasn't shown any interest (I doubt he's even a Republican).

O'Neill is a Republican, he shows up at Republican events, endorsed fellow SEAL Eric Greitens, and I also hear he appears on FOX News.

[Heisenberg]

Does anybody have an idea on who the GOP convention would pick? I really hope it's Buttrey, though Sales is my second choice.

[Heisenberg]

not gonna lie I think the name Zeno might actually hurt his chances to win a House seat.

That, and his father's association with the ACA.

[Heisenberg]

Gianforte in.

[Heisenberg]

Gianforte and Quist appear to be the front runners right now

With Buttrey (R) and Curtis (D) as possible alternatives.

Buttrey should just defer to Gianforte and run for U.S. Senate next year.

[Heisenberg]

I hope Curtis wins the primary, she seems like the most formidable Democrat in the field.

Republicans hope she wins too. Just sayin'

As a Republican, she's the one that scares me the least, for sure. Either Quist tor West could run a strong insurgent campaign and keep it very close, or even win.

[Heisenberg]

Why is Gianforte weaker than Buttrey?

I think it has to do with:
a. He lost statewide last year (yes, he ran against a super popular incumbent, and was pretty close, but still, having a recent statewide loss on your plate is not something you want when trying so soon after)
b. His Young Earth views, and promotion of a creationist museum and his creationist private school agenda. It would work in Alabama, but probably not Montana.

[Heisenberg]

Does anyone know here MT Treasurer/TN Volunteer went? He's been inactive for 4 days now, I'd like to hear more of his thoughts.

Also, this forum is really boring without him TBH.

[Heisenberg]

From RRH's liveblog:

"Second round results trickling in, Quist 62 Curtis 48. Others unknown but West has dropped out." (79 needed to win).

[Heisenberg]

What appeal does quist have that gives him a chance to win?

Outsider (though I guess Gianforte has that too), populist style, likeable as a person, ability to connect with the grassroots, and Gianforte seems pretty flawed, and just lost a statewide race three months ago, and seems to be using this election to stay relevant and probably as a stepping stone to another gubernatorial run in 2020.

[Heisenberg]

I hope Dan West has a future of some kind in MT politics, but I'm excited for Quist.

He's super young, so he's got plenty of opportunities. Even if he doesn't go statewide, I can see him as a Democratic State House/Senate leader.

[Heisenberg]

BTW, anywhere I can watch/stream this?

[Heisenberg]

FYI - I just decided to run a Google Surveys poll for this race.

I have no idea how to weight the results, though.  Weighting to the 2012 GE electorate wouldn't make much sense, since turnout will be lower.  Does anyone have any ideas?  Weight to 2014 mid-terms (if there were any in MT), perhaps?  Last I checked, the 2016 CPS voter survey results weren't available yet, so that's not an option.

Weigh it to 2014 House/Senate turnout. That's the best.

[Heisenberg]

^Do they allow two questions? I'm interested in a hypothetical Tester vs. Fox Senate matchup, but that should probably wait until after May 25.

[Heisenberg]

Well, it's far from a given that Montana will gain that CD, right now it's really close in all the projections (but IIRC, they said that it's slightly more likely that it won't happen). If it does, Quist has that seat for as long as he wants it.

Unless Fox runs, I'd say Democrats are heavily favored in the 2020 gubernatorial race, so that's a problem. I wish heatcharger was right, but voters don't care how many Democrats there already are in Congress. If the GOP wants to stop Quist and Tester, 2018 will be their best and probably only opportunity. If they can't win either race next year, things will only get worse for them in 2020 IMO.

Fox is going to run. There is no way that he's not a favorite for this election.

Unless the RSCC successfully convinces him to go for Senate...

Buttrey would be better. Fox getting the Senate seat requires him to resign as AG, and then Bullock appoints a Democrat, creating a new rising star in the Montana Democratic Party.

[Heisenberg]

Fox is going to run. There is no way that he's not a favorite for this election.

It would be Tilt or mayyybe Leans R at best, but closer to Tossup. No Republican is going to win a gubernatorial election in Montana easily, not even Fox. He should go for the Senate race instead IMO. If he loses narrowly, he can still run in 2020.

Also I had a dream last night in which Tester won reelection by 0.3%, LOL.

Oh that would be so devastating, by 0.3%, especially if the LP candidate got 3% or more (that's happened many times).
I am frightened by the prospect of Bullock appointing a young, progressive AG who wins the Governorship in 2020 and 2024, then wins a Senate seat in 2026 or 2030 and becomes a lifer.

[Heisenberg]

Actually, Montana is much less urban and more rural than people think (not majority rural, but pretty close to it, IIRC). So when the Democrats win statewide, it's not just because they run up the margin in Missoula, Bozeman and Helena (and keeping it close in Bozeman/Yellowstone County!), but they also have to avoid getting clobbered in the rural areas.

Anyway, Democrats in the state really despise Gianforte with a passion, LOL. The press is definitely on Quist's side, which is much more helpful than a GOTV operation or something like that. I also agree with Skill and Chance that this is an easy race for Bernie Democrats to win. If they can't win here, there's not much reason to believe they'll win elsewhere.

Republicans definitely dodged a bullet when the healthcare bill failed, so Gianforte still has a chance.

Of course you also forgot the Democratic bases of Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, Trump and Fox almost flipped them, but Gianforte got destroyed in both. If they go from being 70% D to 50-50, that hurts Democrats and helps Republicans going forward.

[Heisenberg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist likes guns and doesn't like TVs

Not my kind of guy!

Lol, chill. He will vote for gun restrictions, etc. once he is in Congress. This is part of the shtick, we saw this with Tester and Kander as well.

Quist is not a moderate, and neither is Gianforte.

Yeah, he'll likely just be another Pelosi puppet. Time for Gianforte and the NRA to fire back.

[Heisenberg]

Montana Democrat Rob Quist Is Regular Performer at Nudist Resort
Free Beacon/Brent Scher

You must be logged in to read this quote.

More at the link, including a link to some pictures that I would not dare post here.

I'm not sure how much of a scandal this would be in a state like Montana.  Utah, for sure.  But Montana?

Montana is one of the more socially libertarian states, so, maybe not?

I don't know though, it sure does play into the hippy narrative quite well.

Not all social libertarians (myself included) are that naked guy at the 2016 Libertarian National Convention.

It's clearly not a religious right place like Alabama, but I wouldn't call it socially left-wing like Hollywood. I won't pretend to be an expert, but I'd imagine that Western Montana is more conservative socially than fiscally (plus some parts, like Missoula, aren't even conservative at all), and Eastern Montana is more fiscally conservative than socially conservative. The west/east divide is pretty big.

Of course, there are also states like Nevada and New Hampshire that are super pro-choice yet still elect solid pro-lifers to many high offices, including US Senate.

[Heisenberg]

Amanda Curtis would've ran a better campaign than this.

Yeah, I wish she would have won the Democratic nomination. She'd probably have been my favorite Democrat in Congress and the GE campaign would have been more entertaining as well, LOL.

Isn't she more left leaning than even Quist? They'd probably call her a socialist ?

Well, Quist positioned himself at the convention as the more left-leaning candidate, IIRC.

Still, glad Curtis lost the nomination, she is so young she'd be there forever.

[Heisenberg]

Why is the right so violent?

Can you please link data and research that shows that conservatives are more violent?

If anything, recent events have shown us that the opposite is probably the case.