MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Sanders only won MT 52-44. It's not the south, but it's not KS or UT either.

That's not exactly a fair comparison. KS and UT were caucus states, while MT had a primary after AP declared Clinton had clinched the nomination.

TN Vol, any reason why you think Quist is favored? I don't doubt that he'll make it competitive, but it seems like Montana hasn't had a Democratic House representative in a long time.

Not to mention that every single Sanders staffer not a victim of the April 27th downsizing was in California at the time.


@MT Treasurer/TNVol - thoughts on Quist's gun control policy? Is anyone going to pay enough attention to policy positions for it to matter?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

^Do they allow two questions? I'm interested in a hypothetical Tester vs. Fox Senate matchup, but that should probably wait until after May 25.

Yes, Google Surveys allows 2-10 questions, but the cost is 10x as much as asking 1 question. 

There was a coupon offer for people conducting their first poll ($50 off your first poll), at least as of a few weeks ago.  I'm not sure if the offer is still ongoing.

How much does it cost to put a 1 question poll out in the field?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

I think Tester is in the best position of the 5 Romney state Dems up in 2018.  It's a close call with Manchin, but WV is just so far gone now.  If Tester doesn't win, none of them do IMO.  Sherrod Brown might even be more likely to lose, as he seems eerily similar to Feingold's position in 2010.

Brown's position isn't even remotely close to Feingold's; the Ohio Senate race (assuming Mandel is the Republican nominee) starts off lean D and could conceivably enter solid likely D territory by Election Day.

The way Feingold was viewed in 2009 was "Well maybe he could be beaten, but not with this crop of candidates". Then he lost the next year. People saying Brown is okay because Mandel does seem similar.

For the record, there's a solid case that Brown is okay because Brown. He's a solid fundraiser, a pretty good tactician (or at least knows to hire good campaign managers), and a good fit for his state going into a D favored year. Plus, as a "less" vulnerable incumbent, I'd imagine a lot of money is going to go towards taking down Donnelly and McCaskill, as opposed to the tidal wave of GOP money that came down on OH in 2016.

Add in Mandel, and that just adds to the case that Brown might be okay.  

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I will say a few things about that GCS poll before everyone freaks out:

- Both candidates have a floor of around 45%. So when there are that many undecideds, you should take it with a grain of salt.
- I think these polls are too D-friendly. Quist is slightly favored, yes, but it's unlikely that he will win by double digits or even high single digits. I believe Castro's GCS poll had McCaskill winning by almost 10 points, which is a bit D-friendly as well.

I think right now a result like this is the most likely outcome:

50% Quist (D)
46% Gianforte (R)
4% Wicks (L)

I could be wrong, but I don't see Quist winning by more than 5 or 6 points.

I think that there's probably a 45% floor for both candidates when a representative sample of the state shows up to the polls. I think it's an open question whether that will happen or not.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I think that there's probably a 45% floor for both candidates when a representative sample of the state shows up to the polls. I think it's an open question whether that will happen or not.

Nah, low turnout doesn't always favor Republicans. In states like MT and WV, it often favors Democrats. Also, the Democratic base seems to be a little more excited right now, but who knows.

If Quist wins, I wonder who will run against him in 2018? Maybe Buttrey? I think Quist would be more likely to win reelection than Tester, honestly.

I was suggesting more that it could swing either way a bit more dramatically, not just towards the GOP.

In fact, given that Gianforte was already a loser in the past 6 months, and appears to not have learned a lesson about negative campaigning with lots of out of state money, I could easily imagine dissatisfied or unmotivated GOP voters staying home.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

FWIW, since it's been questioned in the thread, Quist really DOES appear to be very well known in MT. Apparently he played this thing that became known as MT's Woodstock in 1974? There was apparently a LOT of beer.

This comes from reading local press + asking around with some relatives from Butte.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Donald fing Trump is president so I don't see why Bullock couldn't

There is no indication that he's going to run for president, sorry. Not to mention that I don't see him winning a Democratic primary. He'll likely run for Senate instead, the Democrats would be stupid to basically concede that race. Daines is extremely vulnerable, and while some other Democrats could give him a run for his money as well, I think Bullock is the only one who could win (it would be very close, though).

I'm sure there's a reason for this that I've missed, but why wouldn't Schweitzer run for Senate? Sure, he will have been out of office for six years at that point, but one doesn't just waste a politician who got 65% of the vote last time they stood for election...

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Donald fing Trump is president so I don't see why Bullock couldn't

There is no indication that he's going to run for president, sorry. Not to mention that I don't see him winning a Democratic primary. He'll likely run for Senate instead, the Democrats would be stupid to basically concede that race. Daines is extremely vulnerable, and while some other Democrats could give him a run for his money as well, I think Bullock is the only one who could win (it would be very close, though).

I'm sure there's a reason for this that I've missed, but why wouldn't Schweitzer run for Senate? Sure, he will have been out of office for six years at that point, but one doesn't just waste a politician who got 65% of the vote last time they stood for election...

Presumably the same reason he didn't run in 2014?

I always thought that was because he was eyeing the Presidency in 2016 (before he got caught up in the Eric Cantor 'gaydar' comment etc. etc.) and didn't want to announce for another office six-to-eight months after his election.

Surely he's not running for President in 2020...?

EDIT: Upon further research looks like there was some campaign finance kerfuffle that was about to blow up.

At this point, provided he isn't continuing to engage in shady practices, can't he just say "no one came forward with anything," and move on?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

In other news, Gianforte gave 1.1 million to a Billings affordable housing project in Dec. 2016.

In case anyone's keeping score, that timeline means that he did it basically as soon as he knew Zinke was being appointed Interior Secretary.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

In other other news, 800k in TV ads have already been spent on the race.

All of them on the GOP side.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

In other other news, 800k in TV ads have already been spent on the race.

All of them on the GOP side.

Figures. D's probably won't spend a cent there until GA-06 is over.

Ideally they'd be reserving the ad space now though, while it's cheaper. Do we know how much they're spending on the GA 6?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

God dammit Luján then. I hope Democrats get in this.

Yeah, I'm not a fan of Lujan, but the alternative (Sean Patrick Baloney) would've been infinitely worse, if you can believe it

Like, he even has the benefit of incumbency. I assume there's no major staff turnover at DCCC, they knew they weren't going to be challenged as of December (before Zinke got picked) so it's not like they were holding their collective breath waiting to get replaced...

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I'm guessing that this quote is probably pretty representative of their attitude. Which is deeply disappointing, to say the least.

"None of the five contests pose a threat to the Republicans’ majority in the House. Four of the five seats have been under GOP control, and save for Georgia and to a lesser extent, Montana, they’re all but guaranteed to remain red districts in 2017 and beyond.

“It’s not like we lost these districts by 5 points last time,” one Democratic strategist said of Georgia’s 6th District and Montana’s at-large House seat."

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

To be honest, campaigning doesn't matter a lot. If they jump later, it wouldn't be catastrophic at all

http://isps.yale.edu/node/16698

http://www.bowdoin.edu/~mfranz/final_published_FranzRidout.pdf

WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I'm guessing that this quote is probably pretty representative of their attitude. Which is deeply disappointing, to say the least.

"None of the five contests pose a threat to the Republicans’ majority in the House. Four of the five seats have been under GOP control, and save for Georgia and to a lesser extent, Montana, they’re all but guaranteed to remain red districts in 2017 and beyond.

“It’s not like we lost these districts by 5 points last time,” one Democratic strategist said of Georgia’s 6th District and Montana’s at-large House seat."

Goddamn this party how can a group that made Obama president be so out of touch with the ground noise

To be fair, I'd be shocked if they don't jump in here by mid-to-late April/early May.  At least Quist seems to be winning so far.

To be honest, campaigning doesn't matter a lot. If they jump later, it wouldn't be catastrophic at all

All due respect, but you're objectively wrong about this (especially when we're talking about a state like Montana). 

I mean Windjammer is wrong about this either way; in small states candidate campaigning and field is crucial, in big states ad buys are basically the only way to reach semi-apathetic voters that swing elections.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I'm guessing that this quote is probably pretty representative of their attitude. Which is deeply disappointing, to say the least.

"None of the five contests pose a threat to the Republicans’ majority in the House. Four of the five seats have been under GOP control, and save for Georgia and to a lesser extent, Montana, they’re all but guaranteed to remain red districts in 2017 and beyond.

“It’s not like we lost these districts by 5 points last time,” one Democratic strategist said of Georgia’s 6th District and Montana’s at-large House seat."

Goddamn this party how can a group that made Obama president be so out of touch with the ground noise

To be fair, I'd be shocked if they don't jump in here by mid-to-late April/early May.  At least Quist seems to be winning so far.

To be honest, campaigning doesn't matter a lot. If they jump later, it wouldn't be catastrophic at all

All due respect, but you're objectively wrong about this (especially when we're talking about a state like Montana). 

Well, I maintain my words. The results of this election will be driven by the political climate at national elvel. He won't win or lose by spending 20 millions or 2 millions.

Please look at the links I posted. All due respect but you're just wrong.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

So I see this thread is going well... Anyway, campaign mailings and internet ads on the Quist side aren't being reported, so it's not as if he's spending nothing. I'm highly skeptical that money will make a big difference in this race anyway.

That's definitely true. In fact, _(not)Gov. Gianforte can tell you that money isn't everything.

TNVol: You're obviously on the other side of the aisle, but do you have any idea what Quist's campaign infrastructure looks like? I'm not sure I trust a 70yo first time politician to be a champion organizer, but the party could have put him in good hands.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

It's my impression that Gianforte spent a ton in the 2016 MT-GOV race, so won't his ads be much less effective because Montana has seen so much of him so recently?

So much so that it appears that he was only briefly off the air (if at all) before announcing for the House seat.

People never learn their lessons about saturation, it seems.

Honestly I think Quist could pull this off without outside help.

This, so much.

I agree, and I think that to a certain extent it's beneficial to keep the race between a New Jersey-ite tech billionaire and the front man of the Mission Mountain Wood Band from being nationalized.

But it's also so dispiriting to see a winnable race get ignored by the DCCC (so far) because it doesn't fit their idea of a 'winnable race' (aka, in the moderate suburbs outside a major metro).

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Fascinating.  Thank you, anthony!

Man, I'm tempted to donate a few bucks to Quist.  The investment might well be worth it.

EDIT: Put my money where my mouth was.  Let's hope it pays off!

Yeah, I actually have a weird amount of emotional investment in the race.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Story being reported in the Billings Gazette and the Missoulian about Quist's financial situation

Unclear how this will play out, since Quist seems fairly unapologetic and up front about having money struggles.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Gianforte *has* to have saturated the airwaves at this point, right?

Like, everyone who is realistically going to vote in this election has now been hearing about GG in every communications medium for a calendar year.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I'm listening to Quist's music, and dude's a fantastic musician. Smooth voice too.

Then again I love me some bluegrass so...

Yeah -- I really dislike smooth voices in country music (cf: George Jones), but I can definitely appreciate him and the various bands that he's been in.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

All-mail special election might be back on the table:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/montana/articles/2017-04-07/governor-uses-veto-pen-to-push-mail-only-voting

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This is why Steve Bullock is the man.

This like, doesn't even come close to the most awesome Montana Democratic Governor Veto Hijinks.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

You are assuming that nationalizing races in blood red Trump states makes sense.  The DCCC coming in will allow Gianforte to credibly tie Quist to San Fran Nan and New York Chuck, who I'm sure aren't that popular in Montana.  Whose to say Thompson wouldn't have lost by a larger margin had the KS-04 race been nationalized more?

But then what is the alternative? Democrats abandon candidates in deeply Republican territory out of fear of it backfiring? I'm sure there are instances where it will be plenty valid, but the 'nationalization' excuse doesn't seem that strong to me. It seems like a good excuse to keep doing what the party said it would stop doing.

No.  The Democratic establishment should quietly support the candidate in other ways, by sending in surrogates that don't have ties to the Democratic establishment (like Sanders), and finding other ways to quietly get them resources behind the scenes.  Share the GOTV apparatus, microtargeting data and donor lists, for example.  Don't get into a situation where your Kansas or Montana candidate can be tied to unlikable characters from San Francisco and New York City.

I agree with this point, but I still feel like the national party can do more in these races. I'm happy Perez sent Quist some staffers, but that Kansas race should've been contested more. The fact that the DCCC chair didn't know there was an election going on Montana is absolutely horrifying. That suggests to us that they aren't even thinking about how they can help candidates.

Jim Clyburn isn't the DCCC chair

I mean true but do you honestly think Congressman Lujan has a great understanding of the dynamics of the race either?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Sanders is apparently going to campaign for Quist. Good for him or bad?

http://www.kpax.com/story/35167743/bernie-sanders-to-campaign-for-rob-quist-across-montana

I don't think any undecideds are going to go against Quist because Sanders is out there. If anyone has heard anything about this race, it's that Gianforte is an "out of state" billionaire, and Quist is an in-debt single payer supporter.