MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

cinyc, how would you grade Google Surveys for the presidential election?  It was fairly off generally, if memory serves.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

hory shet

Well, thanks for compiling all of this, cinyc - and ordering the poll, of course.  Hopefully you didn't piss away $75.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Stuff like this is probably the third or fourth biggest reason for why my avatar is orange.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

On a scale of 1 to Andrea Dworkin, how prudish are people in Montana?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

but I'd imagine that Western Montana is more conservative socially than fiscally (plus some parts, like Missoula, aren't even conservative at all), and Eastern Montana is more fiscally conservative than socially conservative. The west/east divide is pretty big.

I honestly can't tell if this part was meant to be serious or if you are just memeing.  Nice subtle trolling if so.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

With regard to Emerson, here is a poll from February saying Americans trust Trump more than they trust the media.  Take that as you will.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Mitt Romney was the first Republican presidential candidate to be endorsed by the Des Moines Register since 1972.

Guess who won Iowa.

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Yeah, that's pretty disgusting.  And if people think pot usage is still a detriment to people running for office... just lol.

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I'm surprised they were even allowed to disclose sensitive medical information like that.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

...No one cares about smoking pot.  Anyone who insists otherwise, I invite them to 2017.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

If Gianforte wins, it won't be because of the hippie cowboy meme.  That's about as meaningful as calling Ossoff unqualified because he likes beer and Star Wars. *gasp*

The tax issue might sway some undecideds, but Montana helped elect the pussygrabber last November.  As long as white people continue white people-ing, personal scandals will have a minimal effect on these races.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

#illuminati

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Was the meme that Gravis was the most accurate pollster of 2016 just that - a meme?

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Baloney.

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I think that polls generally overestimate third party support.  Most of those voters usually end up breaking for either the Republican or Democratic candidate on election day.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Too bad this didn't happen a week earlier, otherwise Violent Greg would be finalizing his concession speech now.  Hopefully less pro-assault voters turn out tomorrow like they did in November.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

It's not physically possible for most folks to body slam an adult male. If Gianforte can pull that off he is a major stud to be sure.

2017 GOP folks. Beta males need not apply. Must physically assault reporter to receive "stud" status.

Proof is in the pudding, isn't? This guy gets in someone's face, gets (allegedly, by his own accord) owned, and goes on twitter about broken glasses.

Pure beta move!

Yes, the voters prefer alpha males.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Breaking: Gianforte to make public appearance tonight, is expected to reveal his super saiyan

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So regardless of the outcome, Piano Man's victory/concession speech should be very, um, interesting tomorrow night.

Although I also think there's a good possibility we won't have a winner by tomorrow night.  We'll see.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I think Gianforte would be a home run for this seat and hell, it'll open him up to winning the Governorship in 2020 should he choose to run.

I beg to differ. Gianforte comes across to me as the sort of candidate very likely to spontaneously combust - a regular Akin-in-the-making, in other words. I don't claim to know anything about Montana politics, but Gianforte strikes me as just about the best candidate we could face this side of Punching Bag Spencer.

He is nothing like Todd Akin. Please stop.

!!!

He was part right.  Todd Akin never assaulted anyone.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Gianforte must appear in court by June 7

What a night.  Whoever wins, I'm thankful for all the laughs.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

people have been calling in asking if they could change their vote - according to CNN, and only 1 voter out of 75 said they changed their vote from GG to RQ and Pubs tended to agree with GG and encouraged his behavior according to Kyung Lah

And we're supposed to have sympathy for these people when they lose their healthcare.  What a world.