MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Angrie]

Well, it is interesting to see the Google Consumer Survey, even if it is probably not going to be reliable.

[Angrie]

I doubt Quist cracks 46%.

Trump didn't crack 46%, but here we are...

Seriously, though. I suspect the Libertarian candidate will perform pretty well this time around. I wholly suspect whoever wins will probably still be significantly below 50%

One could imagine it turning out something like MT-SEN 2012

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=30&f=1&off=3&elect=0&class=1

   Jon Tester   Democratic    236,123    48.58%
   Denny Rehberg   Republican    218,051    44.86%
   Dan Cox   Libertarian    31,892    6.56%

[Angrie]

Jeez.

[Angrie]

Though I think it's a bit late for this to have a harder impact.

It will be on the news on the radio while people are driving to their polling locations to vote...

[Angrie]

Apparently Jacobs is in critical condition and he can't breathe.

OMG, fck Gianforte.

If that is true, how did the reporter tweet about it?

[Angrie]

 Ben Jacobs‏Verified account @Bencjacobs 2m2 minutes ago

Listen to me get body slammed in Montana
33 replies 221 retweets 148 likes

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/867535038749040640

[Angrie]

LET'S. GET. BACK. ON. TOPIC.

Yeah, what will be the vote totals in Petroleum County now?

I had been thinking:

Gianforte: 182
Quist: 46

But now I am thinking more like:

Gianforte: 163
Quist: 58

[Angrie]

Well then. Fox.

[Angrie]

Can we get back on topic and stop arguing over which side is more violent?

Yeah. As someone who has been targeted (albeit in a relatively minor way compared to some of the other things mentioned - rock thrown through the window of a campaign office) by political violence, "who is more violent" is not the issue. The act(s) of violence themselves are the issue. Arguing about it in a partisan way is sort of pathetic, and shows that you are not actually taking it seriously.

[Angrie]

I think this thread gets up to at least 120 pages by the time this race gets called.

[Angrie]

We did though earlier. Somewhere in the 50's pages

Oh wow, I see it ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5665079#msg5665079 )

This night's events have taken up over 20 pages? Jesus. That's like election night.

Crazy, isn't it?

Did anything come out of the Sheriff's press conference?

Not really. They just wanted people to stop calling 911 about it and said they would treat it like any other case.

[Angrie]

DCCC ad ready to go for tomorrow. Simple, but effective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1ZK1s7gNxI&feature=youtu.be

That was quick.

Well, they didn't have to do a lot of editing. Funny how much more straightforward it is than basically every other political ad in existence, because it doesn't have to fool the viewer with the usual tricks.

It is also seems smart to say "Go. Vote. Against. Him." - which implicitly allows for Republicans to vote for the Libertarian if they can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat.

[Angrie]

The Billings Gazette has retracted their endorsement of Gianforte.

It is worth clicking the link to read in full.

[Angrie]

Can Montana actually afford to have a second special election? That was the big deal behind the mail in only ballot measure. If counties are in this serious of financial trouble,and Gianforte resigns(after winning the election) wouldn't Montana just let the seat remain vacant until '18?

Wouldn't Gianforte be wealthy enough to donate the needed funding to the state? Seems like that would be the appropriate thing to do.

[Angrie]

The Helena independent record has pulled their endorsement as well.

http://helenair.com/news/local/independent-record-withdraws-endorsement-of-gianforte/article_0d7d40b6-8d5d-587c-86f7-290a611b53db.html

[Angrie]

This is exhibit A of why no-excuse early voting should be banned.

I agree. It should be easy to vote before election day, but you should have to do something extra to do so. Early voting is a privilege, not a right. Not to derail the thread, but that's also my feeling about voter IDs. As long as they are easy to get (and I mean, so easy that not even a single person is unable to vote), they aren't that bad an idea.[/quote]

How is it really any different if you only have election day voting and then something like this happens the day after election day? Or mid-day on election day after most people have already voted?

So the key point seems to me that it is something that has happened after people have already voted. And it is always possible for something to happen after people have voted, no matter when you schedule voting.

Such cases are the purpose that recall elections and the like are designed for, though if those are generally allowed, they are liable to be abused in less serious cases.

[Angrie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He is obviously going off of something in the voter file, some sort of modeling either specifically for this race or else for just some measure/estimate of generic partisanship. You can see this because he says "no vote history to tell," implying that he is inferring preferences for the other people based on things like vote history.

[Angrie]

How do the absentee/mail ballots usually get counted in MT? Should we expect a big dump of all the absentees at the very beginning, and then a long wait while precinct results gradually filter in? If so, does it vary much by county?

[Angrie]

Exactly tied. Down to the actual vote.

That would be great.  I've always wanted to see another one like this: https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Closest_election_in_Senate_history.htm

Ah, yes, all those angry New Hampshire women turned the state deep, super safe blue that year.

TBH the anger is a recent phenomenon. You can't expect to see it in results from decades ago.

[Angrie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BY1k1GcZRww

[Angrie]

you never know how many quist fans lie about this.

People lie in polls all the time. If 9% supposedly said they voted Quist because of it, a good portion of those probably had already voted, for one thing.

[Angrie]

Any way to know if what is in is mostly early vote or election day vote? Most of the counties seem to say they have more than 1 precinct in, which suggests election day, since often early vote is counted as 1 single "precinct."

[Angrie]

DDHQ is apparently about to call it for Gianforte.

If so, maybe Quist still has a chance!

[Angrie]

A sign this is not looking good for quist is that CNN has completely gone silent on the race

They have David Axelrod on right now talking about it, and are playing the audio..

[Angrie]

Is the vote coming in from all over right now or are some counties/areas over-represented?

Overrepresenting some areas. Still nothing from Petroleum County.