MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[GlobeSoc]

Jesus, is everyone in Montana running for this seat?

[GlobeSoc]

What appeal does quist have that gives him a chance to win?

[GlobeSoc]

Tremendous news:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How big of a deal is this?

[GlobeSoc]

What would be the county map for a 3-point Quist win? Where would he over and underperform the generic winning D in the state?

[GlobeSoc]

Quist is probably up, but not by that much. If this poll turns out to be accurate, then the Republicans are doing something wrong. I would expect that his ceiling for this particular election to be Quist+10, barring Gianforte pulling an Akin. As an incumbent going into 2018, I could see a +17 type margin, though.

[GlobeSoc]

It's my impression that Gianforte spent a ton in the 2016 MT-GOV race, so won't his ads be much less effective because Montana has seen so much of him so recently?

[GlobeSoc]

Quist released his first television ad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c--EsRoiGs&feature=youtu.be

Pretty good message

[GlobeSoc]

Bernie Sanders has a high favorability rating. At worst, he would be a net neutral to the Quist campaign.

[GlobeSoc]

An interesting thing to watch in this race will be the East-West divide. Basically all GCS polls so far have shown the gap to be unbelievably high (sometimes even more than 40 points), with Quist leading in the Western part of the state and Gianforte in the East. I doubt it will be that dramatic on election day, but we'll see.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the early returns are skewed toward Democrats. So please... don't freak out when Quist leads 55-40 with 5% in. Oh wait, this is Atlas, why am I even saying this.

Given that it's an entire state, with some very unpopulated counties, we should get some full county totals relatively early in the night, which should help us make an educated guess as to how the race is going (although again, we need to watch out for the East-West divide).

Does thé east or the west report first?

[GlobeSoc]

Emerson is a weird poll, like really weird, but it's not good.  The good news I guess is that it seems dems have been over performing their polling, but probably not enough to overcome high single digit leads. 

Yeah.  Emerson provided the raw data, along with the cross-tabs.  Assuming Age Group 1 are the 18-34s, they polled a whopping 18 LVs out of the 648 or so respondents (after weighting).  I'm not sure exactly how they weighted, but given that 18-34s represent 123/648 in the presumably weighted cross-tabs, the 18-34s must have a weight of about 7.

So yes, Emerson's poll skewed old.  I think it also skewed heavily Western Montana in the formulation we've been using.  If I've done the county translations right, Western Montana is actually more pro-Gianforte than Eastern Montana in this poll.

Best I can make heads or tails of the Emerson numbers, the raw data was only Gianforte +4 (for the highly likely to votes).  They must have really weighted the data to get to Gianforte+15 out of that.

uhh... I wouldn't be surprised if this poll is just junk then.

[GlobeSoc]

Montana Democrat Rob Quist Is Regular Performer at Nudist Resort
Free Beacon/Brent Scher

You must be logged in to read this quote.

More at the link, including a link to some pictures that I would not dare post here.

I'm not sure how much of a scandal this would be in a state like Montana.  Utah, for sure.  But Montana?

Montana is one of the more socially libertarian states, so, maybe not?

[GlobeSoc]

DCCC is sending another $400K to Montana for Quist, bringing total investment to $600K.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_590943b3e4b05c39768423fc

why

[GlobeSoc]

I'm actually thinking that a poorly timed senate fight over the ahca could give Quist about a ~5% boost from spooked democrats turning out and annoyed moderate republicans thinking about checking the party's current agenda and thus defecting.

[GlobeSoc]

I'm actually thinking that a poorly timed senate fight over the ahca could give Quist about a ~5% boost from spooked democrats turning out and annoyed moderate republicans thinking about checking the party's current agenda and thus defecting.

This thing isn't going to hurt Republicans unless they can pass it in the Senate - in other words, not going to happen. But I admire your optimism.

If Quist wins, it won't be because of this.

Oh sure, I'm saying that his support would go up,not that he has the support to win off the ahca alone.

[GlobeSoc]

Gianforte apparently won't say if he supports the AHCA or not.

I'm not sure if this statement will help or hurt him

[GlobeSoc]

I guess that our relatively high level of information could be hurting our ability to predict the Montana special, where there might be a lot of underinformed voters. This isn't the affluent GA-06.

[GlobeSoc]

Quite frankly, the data here is crap. I wouldn't be surprised if the result is Wicks +98.

[GlobeSoc]

The specials held in the shadow of stupid watergate will be disasters for the republicans!

[GlobeSoc]

The specials held in the shadow of stupid watergate will be disasters for the republicans!

I feel like this shift has more to do with AHCA than Russiagate, but regardless, seems like Quist is definitely gaining.

That was just me doing à Krazenism, except with a democratic bias.

[GlobeSoc]

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

You couldn't make this up if you tried

[GlobeSoc]

Also, immediately before this election on Thursday, we'll have:

1. A new CBO score early in the week showing likely over 24 million more uninsured
2. A Comey hearing on Wednesday potentially implicating Trump on obstruction of justice
3. Whatever other bombshells come out between now and then.

A Drmocrat with less skeletons than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with all this.

Really, Quist may be dragged across in spite of his campaign by the gop as a whole being a dumpster fire right now

[GlobeSoc]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

You're not the only one.  I still think this is Tilt R at least.

I think I agree.  Quist has had so much baggage come out that he probably needs a favorable environment on the level of the New Deal Dem waves at this point.

Eh, Pianoforte has been attacked pretty relentlessly as well. Also, this stuff is nothing that would sink a campaign. Honestly, I don't know any Republican from here who is taking this race for granted or who believes that Republicans have this in the bag.

National Republicans are now pouring late cash into the race:

Anyway: A Republican-friendly group is rushing a last-minute $200,000 ad buy onto the Montana airwaves

I'm kind of amused by when outside groups spend ad money in retail states. I mean, sure, but wouldn't this be better spent in GOTV, especially at a time where recent events could decrease GOP turnout?

[GlobeSoc]

Since Bernie Sanders lives in America, all Americans are evil commie socialists!!!

[GlobeSoc]

Maybe one reason that google consumer polls have crazy regional divides is that Flathead's younger people are crossing over for a hometown populist?

I'm not sure that's the case, but it would help make the divide a canyon.

[GlobeSoc]

They're obviously having to do some last-minute crosstab fudging before it's ready.

They could be just that incompetent