MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[TheSaint250]

In many ways, this special is do or die for the Bernie wing of the Democrats.  This is just about the ideal candidate and the ideal audience if there is any remaining chance to revive the rural left.

Agreed. Montana is the last of the four rural Rocky Mountain states (ID, MT, UT, WY) that the Democrats have any shot at. And that shot is slowly disappearing. It's now or never.

Montana is the only state where Dems have a chance, maybe Wyoming but only in gubernatorial elections, but that's a stretch.

[TheSaint250]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

That the Democrats aren't wasting money on a race where they're down 12 points?

That's no reason to discredit it.  Many people think of Gallup as a good and reliable polling firm, and 538 gave them both the same rating (B-).
It's Gravis.

[TheSaint250]

Yeah, unless something really big occurs, whether on the national level or to Gianforte, he won't lose.

[TheSaint250]

damnit why can't the full story come out yet?

[TheSaint250]

Alexis Levinson confirmed that Jacobs left in an ambulance as a precaution, but he's okay.

That would explain the tweets.

[TheSaint250]

The average Republican will probably cheer this, unfortunately. They are becoming increasingly authoritarian.

Again, stop being a frickin partisan hack. This was a horrible thing

[TheSaint250]

If Gianforte wins he'll have to resign within days, then we get ANOTHER Special Election.

I don't wanna do this all over again...

[TheSaint250]

Just found this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhoH4v8xYlU&feature=share

[TheSaint250]

This was assault.  He's done.

[TheSaint250]

One of many reasons I despise the rampant gun and violence culture prevalent in our country, and especially among the GOP.

Wh...What?

[TheSaint250]

Ban Guns!

Seriously what are you blabbing about on this thread

[TheSaint250]

Greg's spokesman spun this horribly.

[TheSaint250]

Gianforte campaign completely lies in his statement

They must not know the audio's already out.

Campaign: "Write something! Fast!"
*1 hour later*
Campaign: "Done!"
Staffer: "Audio's out!"
Campaign: "S***! Ehh...release it anyway."

[TheSaint250]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

Only viable thing would be to leave and for the GOP to select someone new.

Yeah, with 24 hours left. That makes sense.

The best thing is to let it continue as is.  If Gianforte wins, deny him (not sure how this works; not familiar with congressional procedure with this). If Quist wins, so be it.

[TheSaint250]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

[TheSaint250]

I'm thinking Quist will win now. Ugh

It's unfortunate, but almost inevitable at this point.

[TheSaint250]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

I'd been making my guess based on observing Montana's congressional trend and how MT was saying here that Gianforte's campaign was being run relatively normal.

[TheSaint250]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

I'd been making my guess based on observing Montana's congressional trend and how MT was saying here that Gianforte's campaign was being run relatively normal.

Montana has had two Democratic Senators up until 2014, and still has one fairly popular Senator. They do vote D at the national level with a decent frequency.

I get that.  I was thinking in more recent years, especially with Zinke.  Maybe I jumped the gun a little. I just thought that in the House it would trend more GOP.

[TheSaint250]

Can we get back on topic please?

[TheSaint250]

LET'S. GET. BACK. ON. TOPIC.

[TheSaint250]

LET'S. GET. BACK. ON. TOPIC.

THIS IS THE TOPIC NOW, HE BODY SLAMMED A ING REPORTER OF COURSE WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THIS AND THE EFFECT IT WILL HAVE

No I get that. It's just people were skewing off about the ability to body slam someone and then going into more personal attacks. I'm fine talking about the body slamming. It's interesting and a game-changer

[TheSaint250]

LET'S. GET. BACK. ON. TOPIC.

THIS IS THE TOPIC NOW, HE BODY SLAMMED A ING REPORTER OF COURSE WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THIS AND THE EFFECT IT WILL HAVE

yeah sorry this is an inconvient story for your preferred candidate but this is absolutely relevant because Gianforte is thin skinned and couldn't handle even the slightest questioning.

^

As I said, I was talking about other stuff.

[TheSaint250]

Here in Anaconda, no one had heard Gianforte news. I played audio at the bar and there the reaction could be summed up as "oh my god"
https://twitter.com/annehelen/status/867548633327063040


Source tells me that some Quist canvassers are now playing audio of the Gianforte/Guardian incident for voters.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/867553143688753152

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAA

At like 8 PM?

Canvassing regularly goes into the evening, especially in more populated areas. It's the only time when a lot of people are home.

Also, it's only 7:30, this broke at around 6.  Plenty of canvassing is still going on. It's still light out.

Any campaign with this good of an opportunity shouldn't miss the chance to broadcast it.

[TheSaint250]

LET'S. GET. BACK. ON. TOPIC.

Yeah, what will be the vote totals in Petroleum County now?

I had been thinking:

Gianforte: 182
Quist: 46

But now I am thinking more like:

Gianforte: 163
Quist: 58

I would agree with past posters and say it would be less of a vote transition to Quist compared to a vote transition to Wicks.

[TheSaint250]

Sounds like Quist is personally ignoring the issue.

I feel like responding aggressively could hurt him in the end.  Most likely not, but responding to quick and sudden events like this can lead to damaging results for the side that should benefit.