MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Kantakouzenos]

Here is an interesting thought.  If Quist wins and holds the seat until redistricting, he may thereafter have an easier time keeping his seat, since Montana is expected to gain a congressional district.  Assuming the states districts are drawn so that one takes up the west half of the state, and another takes up the east half, he would be competing for a seat that I think would be either a tossup or Democrat leaning, since Quist is from the western half of the state. 

[Kantakouzenos]

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much

Is there an official explanation for why the people who voted to drain the swamp and stop free trade also largely voted to elect a pro-trade swamp creature back to office over someone who opposed free trade and never missed a senate vote in his entire career?  The results of that race really confused me. 

[Kantakouzenos]

It seems like the google consumer survey polls are skewing pretty young and Gravis which I think uses landlines is skewing a bit old. 

[Kantakouzenos]

MT Treasurer (or anyone else from Montana for that matter), sorry if you answered or commented on this recently, but how well do you think Pianoforte and Quist have been running their campaigns?  Any big mistakes or good choices either of them are making?

[Kantakouzenos]

Emerson is a weird poll, like really weird, but it's not good.  The good news I guess is that it seems dems have been over performing their polling, but probably not enough to overcome high single digit leads. 

[Kantakouzenos]

Montana Democrat Rob Quist Is Regular Performer at Nudist Resort
Free Beacon/Brent Scher

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More at the link, including a link to some pictures that I would not dare post here.

I'm not sure how much of a scandal this would be in a state like Montana.  Utah, for sure.  But Montana?

This has got to be the strangest oppo research ever, lol.

[Kantakouzenos]

Is it possible that this new healthcare bill could have an affect on the race in the state depending on what is said by who about the final bill?  This race hasn't really taken center stage, but is it possible that it could still drag down Gianforte's chances (I assume it can only hurt him since new healthcare bills are basically never popular)?

[Kantakouzenos]

Gravis poll conducted from May 2nd- May 4th shows Pianoforte leading the state by 8 points, down from 13 previously.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/montana-special-election-poll-gianforte-leads-quist/

Both candidates lost points in the second poll, as uncertain voters went from 2% to 10%

[Kantakouzenos]

If Quist wins, would his coalition be much different than Bullock's?  is there any voting blocs Quist is stronger or weaker with than Bullock was?

[Kantakouzenos]

Do mail in ballots in Montana lean Republican as they typically do elsewhere in the country do they have no lean/ a Dem lean typically?  I want to know what to expect when I start seeing results on election day.

[Kantakouzenos]

Yeah, that's pretty disgusting.  And if people think pot usage is still a detriment to people running for office... just lol.

I think it would be a bigger red flag is a musician from the 70's wasn't smoking pot.  At the very least it shouldn't hurt him with his base.

[Kantakouzenos]

What are Quist's and Gianforte's stances on free trade and would their stances matter to anyone in certain parts of the state?

[Kantakouzenos]

Two questions. 

What time do the polls close tomorrow, and what is a good website to use for watching the results come in county by county?

[Kantakouzenos]

     So a state with only a million people is a slow-as-molasses counter. Sad!

Hopefully it will be quicker since it's the only thing on the ballot.

If ballots in America are counted by machine in most places, shouldn't it not really matter how many ballot items there are?

[Kantakouzenos]

Absentee numbers have been updated.

As of 5/25, 11:25:45 AM:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

(Numbers for Cascade County are probably an error and will be fixed soon.)

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 70.9% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 70.2% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 78.3% of mail-ins returned (+0.5)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 78.5% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 69.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.3)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 79.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 74.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 73.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

STATEWIDE: 73.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.2)

Added the change (5/24-5/25, 11:25 AM) in brackets.

So the high points for Quist are probably higher than average turnout from Lewis & Clark and Silver Bow Counties, while Gianforte is lucky for the high turnout in Ravali and flathead counties, plus low ballots returned in Gallatin and Missoula counties?

[Kantakouzenos]

Has the New York Times results page been launched yet?  

[Kantakouzenos]

Could someone make a trend map of the 2016 presidential results to Quiats performance and a similar one for the 2016 Gubernatorial results to the 2016 house results? 

I was wondering how Quists theoretical "winning coalition" would differ from Clintons and Bullocks, and this would answer it.