MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think we can all agree that these polls on this particular race are crap.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rob Quist can do this!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Since this thing is almost all mail in ballots, will there just be one huge dump of votes, followed by a few trickles of those who voted at a few polls on election day, or will it still come out the usual way as it did in ga kansas and most other places?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Since this thing is almost all mail in ballots, will there just be one huge dump of votes, followed by a few trickles of those who voted at a few polls on election day, or will it still come out the usual way as it did in ga kansas and most other places?

Pretty sure there will be a huge dump of votes 15 minutes after poll closing time or so. FWIW, this is what the results of MT-GOV 2016 looked like with "4% of the precincts" in (in fact, 27% of the vote had already been counted):

Bullock (D) - 55% - 75,579
Gianforte (R) - 42% - 58,291
Dunlap (L) - 3% - 3,957 

Link.

Thank you.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Quist didnt smoke weed, peform at nude resorts, and have a terrible rating  from the NRA I'd have it

Quist:53
Gianforte:43
Wicks:4

With these skeletons, I am guessing

Quist:49
Gianforte:47
Wicks:4

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Quist didnt smoke weed, peform at nude resorts, and have a terrible rating  from the NRA I'd have it

Quist:53
Gianforte:43
Wicks:4

With these skeletons, I am guessing

Quist:49
Gianforte:47
Wicks:4

I don't think smoking weed or performing at nudist resorts is very damaging to Quist, if at all...

From our view, no. From a socially conservative state like Montana, well let's just hope that you are right. And I notice how you left off the NRA factor, now that is damaging.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The NRA rated Bullock and Tester badly too, and they still won.

Bullock has a C and Tester has an A-. Quist has a freaking F. Gianforte has an A. Could be a large game changer. Also, you have to look at the weed and nude resort issue from Montana's view, and not ours. Hopefully you are right about it, Since I really want Quist to win, but Montana is a socially conservative state, and those two things could be potential game changers.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The NRA rated Bullock and Tester badly too, and they still won.

Bullock has a C and Tester has an A-. Quist has a freaking F. Gianforte has an A. Could be a large game changer. Also, you have to look at the weed and nude resort issue from Montana's view, and not ours. Hopefully you are right about it, Since I really want Quist to win, but Montana is a socially conservative state, and those two things could be potential game changers.

I'm pretty sure social conservatism isn't going to make a difference in the wake of AHCA and Russiagate.

Russiagate has been limping along for almost a year now, and the most it's been is a small splinter in the side of the GOP. They still won with it, no biggie. Terrible point. But, you do have a good point with the AHCA. And while people do make extreme decisions in extreme scenarios, they still have their morals and values rooted in them for generations, and completely discounting that would be foolish.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^I could definitely see the AHCA having an impact, but I don't think "Russiagate" will play a big role in the outcome of this race. GA-06 has been much more nationalized than MT (but again - that doesn't mean the national mood doesn't influence factors like turnout - sure it does). This article makes some pretty good points IMO:

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I don't think Quist being a nudist will change many people's minds either, but yeah, had he run a better campaign, he probably would have won by 5-7 points or so. Oh well, he could still win, so nothing is lost for Democrats yet.

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

It's not a bad campaign at all. But, it still has several issues in it, but overall, it is one of the better democratic campaigns in the state that I have seen. The second part is dumb though. It sounds like the Kellyanne statement that made Anderson Cooper roll his eyes. Stupid antics that people did in the past do matter. If your statement was true, we'd have Hillary Clinton as president today, because no one would look at Benghazi or her emails, and in that case, she would have won. His ads have been hard hitting, but none of us have enough info to say whether it has been effective or not. We will find out whether they have been effective when either or both of the scenarios occur. 1. We see the election results on thursday, 2. a respectable pollster jumps in at the last minute to give us material that is not crap. And he does have a huge base following him, hopefully he can turn them into votes in places like Missoula on election day.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

From our view, no. From a socially conservative state like Montana, well let's just hope that you are right. And I notice how you left off the NRA factor, now that is damaging.

I wouldn't describe Montana as "socially conservative" - at least not in the Southern, Bible-thumping "do as I say, not as I do" mold. That is in its own classification and quite separate from what you're conflating with what someone might call "rural values".

I really doubt there's any meaningful number of voters there who are open to voting for Democrats at any level but who would be bothered by the weed thing, or even the nude thing, to the extent that it'd decide their vote. Anything to do with guns would have much more impact, but even then, NRA whining is increasingly worthless.

I'm worrried more about swaying the independents, and I'm scared that they could be turned off by those things. As for the weapons, as I have said before, we are all going into this blind, and we won't know the efficacy of anything until we either or both see some good polling at the last minute, or see the election results on thursday.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I predict the flip side of Tender Branson's prediction:

49.0% Rob Quist
47.2% Greg Gianforte
3.8% Mark Wicks

I hope you are really right. My guess is nearly identical to yours too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I insist that we resist and persist by assisting Quist who will hopefully deport the Gianfort. (I had to leave off the e from his name otherwise it would not have worked as well. Surely if people can corrupt it to Pianoforte, I can just drop an e...)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Are we gonna get our polling from Gravis in anytime soon now?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is even pathetic for Gravis. The poll should have been released forever ago.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone who defends Gravis for something like this, (plus on top of that we will probably get crap results like tomorrow), probably has stockholm syndrome or something.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Maybe Gravis found Quist in the lead and decided to just scrap the poll entirely?

Nah they found Wicks in the lead and realized they smoked one too many while taking the poll.

Lol. Over five and a half hours later, and three hours since any contact with Gravis.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Those are probably bs numbers. Wicks is not getting 8% with the potential to gain more.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

WE WAITED 4 HOURS FOR THIS?

More.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

They didn't even tweet a link to it, just screenshots of the PDF from their phone... total joke pollster and I wouldn't be surprised if they're fake.

That's pathetic of them, what total BS.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

While this "poll" is not comforting in any way, I don't believe it signifies the end.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Both campaigns had enough resources for a house race, couldn't one of them have commissioned at least one darn respectable poll?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Other than Obama in 2008, I can't find a statewide race since 2000 where it picked the wrong winner.  

Lake County is kind of a bizarre bellwether.  Most of it is on the Flathead Indian Reservation, and it's 22% Native American.  Its demographics are not reflective of the rest of Montana.

Whatever it's demographics are, it's still a decent bellwether as Miles said.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Also watch the margin in Lewis+Clark and especially Yellowstone. These counties tend to come in earlier than Lake, I believe.

I just checked the 2016 coverage of the gubernatorial race again, and Lake actually came in early as well. So yeah, with all of these important counties coming in early, we will probably know relatively soon where the race stands. But again - please keep in mind that the early returns (almost all early vote) always favor Democrats, so Quist might be ahead in Yellowstone and Lake at the beginning, kinda like Republicans always lead in Londoun County in VA in the early returns.

And yeah, Lake's record is pretty impressive.

Most of the voting in this election is early voting.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Most of the voting in this election is early voting.

I am aware of that. Just don't freak out if Quist is ahead by 3-5 with 25% of the vote in, lol.

Fair point.