MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

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What methodology is Google using compared to Gravis?

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What methodology is Google using compared to Gravis?

Gravis is a telephone poll (landline and cell phone).  The cell phone part of the sample is done by a link to a webpage, I think. 

Google Surveys are internet-only.  They basically send out their poll questions as ads on newspaper and other websites that people must answer (or skip) to read content.  Google also asks some people the question via their pay-credits-for-answers survey app. 

There are tons of problems with the Google Survey methodology - from the fact that the cheaper one-question methodology doesn't allow for screening questions to low sample sizes.  The Google Survey polls of this race have been all over the place, from Quist +17 to Gianforte +10.  They're not very good.  Yet, defying logic, I'm probably going to purchase another one before the election.

That doesn't mean Gravis is a great pollster, though.  They're not.

So we have spotty polling 2 weeks out from pollsters who are sub par at best, at least that will make the results more interesting.

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The race has been at lean R since it started.

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Campaigning 15-hour days, Quist got a push into politics from governor Schweitzer,  "Rob, you can do this. Who better than you to represent the state of Montana? You've been doing this all your life." Tester gave a shout-out at the annual Mansfield Metcalf Democratic Party dinner. "Stand up, Quist – would ya stand up? I want you to look at this guy," "He's a real Montanan, with real Montana values."  Quist says, "I've got guns that are much older than the number of years Gianforte has been in the state."

Gianforte's religious views are extreme. He's a creationist, and his foundation paid to install the tyrannosaurus exhibit at a local biblical "museum" that purports the Earth is only 6,000 years old and that dinosaurs not only lived among humans but were also passengers on Noah's ark. In a 2015 speech, he declared that "the concept of retirement is not biblical," pointing to the example of Noah. "How old was Noah when he built the ark? Six hundred. He wasn't, like, cashing Social Security checks. He wasn't hanging out. He was working."


http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-democrats-battle-for-montana-w482375

Gianforte will probably join the Freedom Caucus as his views align with them - What a stupid guy & religious extremist !

I don't care about campaign slogans/attacks, I care about the results of the election, go away I want polls.

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Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

I voted for Bernie in the primary. Am I a socialist?

Also, this is strange:

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Sr GOP operative, tracking the two specials, notably more concerned about MONTANA than GEORGIA.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/865262696522014720

By Dwarven's Definition, yes, though that is rather faulty a definition, because a lot of people voted for Bernie over Clinton because he wasn't a corrupt establishment neoliberal.  Also the GOP should worry more about Montana, Gianforte can always blow it again, and Montana has been far more open then Georgia to electing Democrats.

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This could be a big deal here, especially with Quist making preexisting conditions the closing argument of his campaign. Unless something big comes out on Russia/Trump, all of the news across the country is going to be about AHCA less than 24 hours before voting starts.

If all coverage is on the AHCA before the election then it'll be tilt R instead of Lean R.

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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

The Silent Generation is just becoming silent

Permanently.

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Gravis confirms they are definitely releasing a poll on this race:

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/866706234749177862

So we still have no polling.

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https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/866732022626209793

Tweet by @GravisMarketing: "Montana results hopefully around 5pm Est.  Large sample around 1000 completes."

1000 sample size Poll from Gravis coming soon, here we go.

Predicting R+4

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2 hours later

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Literally 2 hours later

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They're obviously having to do some last-minute crosstab fudging before it's ready.

They could be just that incompetent

No, they are that incompetent.

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4 hours later.

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Maybe Gravis found Quist in the lead and decided to just scrap the poll entirely?

Nah they found Wicks in the lead and realized they smoked one too many while taking the poll.

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WE WAITED 4 HOURS FOR THIS?

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>Congressional races are hard to poll

Some teenager in his basement I swear to god.

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This is so ridiculous, ban Gravis forever.

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Ive Saïd it several times. The. Data. Is. A. Dumpster. Fire.

There is no data, only madness and a group of people watching in awe at the stupidity of the pollsters.

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Gianforte +6 to Quist +1, I wish we had 1 somewhat decent poll.

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Here's a chart on how the results came in over time (weighted):



As you can see, there was an early huge spike for Quist, and Gianforte never recovered.  The poll almost reverted to single-digit respectability on late Monday, but then started veering into outlier territory again.  Quist's lead actually grew to 20 points overnight before reverting downward to 15 in the final tally rather quickly. 

This is why I don't like releasing poll results early.  They tend to be swingy.  All of this is probably moot, though - unless Quist wins by double-digits (unlikely), I'm never commissioning another Google Survey.  They're crap.

Hey they're better then Gravis at least.

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Why do so many people on the left here think Quist will win? Outside of (very) dubious google polling, we have actual firms showing +15 (emerson), +14 (gravis), and +7 (change).

This isn't GA-6 where trump won by only 1.5, this is a statewide election where trump won by 20.

Is there any evidence that quist will win here? At all?

Consider the Republican Candidate, A candidate for Governor in 2016 who voters may be weary of, who has flipped on the AHCA, an unpopular bill, has been subject to numerous attacks not only in this race but also in the Governor's race, and the fact that Quist has a decent campaign with a number of high profile and popular names campaigning with and backing him, in addition to numerous donations from small donors.  Quist won't win that's for sure, but he's made it far closer than anyone expected, in no small part thanks to Gianforte being a sub-par candidate.

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As of 5/23:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 68.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.9)

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 72.2% of mail-ins returned (+4.8 )

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.9)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 76.3% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 73.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.2)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 65.9% of mail-ins returned (+3.6)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 74.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 71.7% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 70.8% of mail-ins returned (+2.7)

STATEWIDE: 70.2% of mail-ins returned (+3.0)

Added the change (5/22-5/23) in brackets.

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If Gianforte loses, it won't be because of low turnout in Republican areas, that's for sure:

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Link.

He loses or wins based on the margin in Yellowstone, I wonder what Bullock voters think of Quist.

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So this happened:

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Proof?

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Tough to see how this would actually change a mind.

You'd vote for a guy who attacked a reporter?

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Akins tier sh**t.