MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

[mattocaster6]

Gap is closing quite considerably on PredictIt (can't link as am new)

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

When do you think you'll release it, Monday next week?

[mattocaster6]

Confirmed on their Twitter, Gravis WILL be releasing another poll before election day, they suggest it's likely to show the race tightening even further, perhaps even with Quist ahead.

[mattocaster6]

Confirmed on their Twitter, Gravis WILL be releasing another poll before election day, they suggest it's likely to show the race tightening even further, perhaps even with Quist ahead.

They don't sound like they've started it yet, so that's just a prediction from them.

Gravis Marketing‏ @GravisMarketing
Actually we are going to try and release another one.  the guess is it's tightened

Not sure whether they have started it yet or not, I have asked on their Twitter whether they have any early samples in, they should reply soon.

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

Do you think that if Quist, or Gianforte leads beyond the margin of error of the google poll, that it can be safely said that candidate is in fact in the lead? Like, how accurate are google polls when you take the margin of error into account?

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

Do you have a Discord account or any kind of instant messaging account we can chat on?

[mattocaster6]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

26 responses isn't nearly enough to be a reasonable sample.  Regardless of what it says about MoE, you can't really draw any kind of conclusions at this point.

That's what I pretty much expected.

[mattocaster6]

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

The sample size is going to be too small for any meaningful analysis, unfortunately.  Quist likely will lead it in the end, but the MoE is going to be huge.  Raw, it's currently 12-3-1 Quist-Gianforte-Wicks.  There's no way that the poll would end up that lopsided with more respondents.

Your poll also currently faces the Google App vs. Website Ad polling sample issue - Usually, Google Surveys draw from both types, but with a small sample, you're getting all pro-candidate responses from websites, instead of the App.  The two types can poll differently. For example, if the first 25 voters are from the App (where respondents get paid for answering the poll and, IIRC, can't skip the question), you might end up with different results if the next 35 are from website Google Ads. At a quick glance, your poll is also slightly Western-Montana heavy - and we've seen a huge regional divide in all Google polls.

I see what you're saying.

So why are the Google polls being done on this race all showing Quist in the lead, even with weighting, while all the Gravis polls and the Dem super pac poll are showing Gianforte in the lead? Is it to do with the Google polls being biased towards internet users or something?

[mattocaster6]

Some guy on the PredictIt page for the race just posted what he claims are "Early vote projections" with Quist at 52.6% and Gianforte at 47.4% Don't know how legit it is, he' s probably just pumping.

[mattocaster6]

I see what you're saying.

So why are the Google polls being done on this race all showing Quist in the lead, even with weighting, while all the Gravis polls and the Dem super pac poll are showing Gianforte in the lead? Is it to do with the Google polls being biased towards internet users or something?

Not all the Google polls have shown Quist in the lead.  My last poll back in mid-April found Gianforte with a 10 point lead (weighted).  That poll was taken around the time of the first Gravis poll and the Emerson poll.

Quite frankly, I'm not sure whether these Google polls are good for anything but entertainment value.  They have been all over the place.  Part of the reason is because most people other than me have had relatively small sample sizes - 333, which maybe yields 240 non-Undecideds/Not Likely to votes).  Even my polls have only gotten 300-355 usable responses. My first Google Survey back in March had Quist up by something unbelieveable, like 14 or 17 points.  

The one-question methodology we are using is extremely suspect.  The fact that we don't have a registration based sample or a way to exclude non-voters in a one-question poll is suspect.  The fact that we can only weight by age, sex and (maybe) region is suspect.  And the Google polls that various Atlas users commissioned before the November election were off more than they were on.  So I always take these with a huge grain of salt.  This may be my last attempt at a Google Survey if it isn't close to reality this time.

Have you started the google poll yet, any early returns?

[mattocaster6]

Have you started the google poll yet, any early returns?

The survey was put into the field around midnight, Mountain Time.  It's too early to say anything about the returns.  We're only up to 165/567 respondents.  The poll should be completed by tomorrow or (most likely) Tuesday.

Can you just say whether Quist or Gianforte is in the lead so far? Pleeease? (I know it doesn't mean much I'm just really impatient lol)

[mattocaster6]

surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4

53 of my 60 sample size poll is in and Gianforte only has 4 votes: lol

Quist: 25 Gianforte: 4 Wicks: 2 Undecided: 15 Won't vote: 7

Even with such a tiny sample size as 60 and a sh**tty pollster surely Quist must have some kind of advantage, at least with Google poll takers.

[mattocaster6]

If Quist didnt smoke weed, peform at nude resorts, and have a terrible rating  from the NRA I'd have it

Quist:53
Gianforte:43
Wicks:4

With these skeletons, I am guessing

Quist:49
Gianforte:47
Wicks:4

I don't think smoking weed or performing at nudist resorts is very damaging to Quist, if at all...

[mattocaster6]

The NRA rated Bullock and Tester badly too, and they still won.

[mattocaster6]

^I could definitely see the AHCA having an impact, but I don't think "Russiagate" will play a big role in the outcome of this race. GA-06 has been much more nationalized than MT (but again - that doesn't mean the national mood doesn't influence factors like turnout - sure it does). This article makes some pretty good points IMO:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think Quist being a nudist will change many people's minds either, but yeah, had he run a better campaign, he probably would have won by 5-7 points or so. Oh well, he could still win, so nothing is lost for Democrats yet.

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

[mattocaster6]

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

Oh, feel free to disagree if you want, but that's not only been my impression. He's done much worse than I thought he would do at the beginning of this race, after he won the Democratic nomination. Quist hasn't been clear about where he stands on several issues (most notably gun rights and foreign policy), and he just kept repeating his "But Gianforte is from New Jersey!" and "But Russia" talking points over and over again, especially during the debate, which was rather disappointing. His claim that Gianforte had "Russian ties" was basically a lie. Honestly, Amanda Curtis (who is one of my favorite MT Democrats, so I might be biased) comes across as much more authentic than Quist.

Say what you want about Gianforte, but he's done a pretty good job so far, even though I liked him more when he ran for governor. There's a reason why three of Montana's largest newspapers have endorsed him.

But like you said, Quist's base is probably still very motivated and will turn out for him on election day, and "candidate quality" is often overrated anyway.

Curtis lost her senate race by 20 points in 2014 though

[mattocaster6]

Even so, Quist is about to do better than any democratic candidate has done since 1996/92 in the Montana congressional seat, that's a fairly large achievement in itself even if he doesn't pull it off.

[mattocaster6]

My google survey with sample size of 60 is completed, could someone with the knowledge please weight it (I know with a sample size that small it won't help much but still):

Survey link:
surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4

Apparently the margin of error is 11%, the results were:

Rob Quist: 45% (27)

Greg Gianforte: 10% (6)

Mark Wicks: 5% (3)

Undecided: 28.3% (17)

Not likely to vote: 11.7% (7)

Quist is leading Gianforte outside the margin of error but I know it's probably meaningless anyway because of no weighting and miniscule sample size + it being a google poll

[mattocaster6]

I predict the flip side of Tender Branson's prediction:

49.0% Rob Quist
47.2% Greg Gianforte
3.8% Mark Wicks

[mattocaster6]

cinyc, how many responses so far? Any clues?

[mattocaster6]

  Whats up with Missoula?  One would think the return rate would be higher due to Dem enthusiasm.

It's higher than it was in 2014.