MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Beet]

Curtis' nomination in the 2014 SEN election after Walsh dropped out was a good example of the 'women come to power in crisis' theory. Theory predicts a Curtis loss since today was just a normal convention, not a crisis.

Congratulations to Rob Quist. Hope he wins, we need as many seats as possible.

[Beet]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

So?

[Beet]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

That the Democrats aren't wasting money on a race where they're down 12 points?

[Beet]

3) Endorsing and campaigning for Hillary Clinton. It made him look like a huge hypocrite, since his whole campaign was railing against her, now he supports her?

Why? Bernie could have legitimate issues with her and make a case against her in the context of him vs her, but against Trump, it's easy to see why she is still the better pick from the perspective of Democrats/many others.

imo, Trump has only continued to bolster that view since becoming president.

It was just some hard headed, objective political analysis, but some people thought it "sore." Anyway, the Gravis poll only confirms my prediction of a 10-point Gianforte win, only it appears some third candidates will be significant, so I switch my prediction from 55%-45% to 53%-43%.

[Beet]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist likes guns and doesn't like TVs

Not my kind of guy!

Lol, chill. He will vote for gun restrictions, etc. once he is in Congress. This is part of the shtick, we saw this with Tester and Kander as well.

Quist is not a moderate, and neither is Gianforte.

Tester? I can't find his NRA rating... some left-wing sources claims he has an A-? I know he voted for background checks, but didn't support some of Obama's proposals.

[Beet]

If the Emerson poll is close to being right, it really would put a big hole in claims that Bernie would have somehow done dramatically better than Hillary in places like Montana.

[Beet]

If the Democrats are afraid of nationalizing the race, then they've already lost by admitting what they're standing for nationally can never win in Montana.

[Beet]

Weird qualitative update, but I'm trying to organize out of state phone banks for Quist here in Chicago. The campaign finally got back to me after months of wrangling, and they literally just sent an OpenVPB* link and a "good luck!" email.

I'm losing confidence every day to be perfectly frank.

*for those not in the know, basically the lowest effort (and indeed, least useful) tool for distributed organizing built into the Democratic field platform NGPVAN.

What, in your view, would be more useful?

My biggest problem with NGPVAN is that it was the source of the 0-day hack into the DNC severs in 2015. You get into VAN, you not only have everyone's information, you also have a backdoor into the entire infrastructure. The software is just way, way too old and clunky to inspire any confidence.

[Beet]

I just watched the first 11 minutes of this debate, and I can't go on. It's clear why Quist isn't doing well. He is nervous, and he is throwing out obviously prerehearsed lines, whereas Gianforte's experience with his previous campaign has obviously paid off, as he is relaxed and speaking extemporaneously. This makes him seem more genuine. Also, the fact that guns are even an issue is sad. In a state like Montana, there should be no difference on guns between the candidates unless something unusual is going on. The Democrats are probably starting to see that shoehorning in a 69 year old with no experience in politics wasn't the best idea.

[Beet]

I stick to the same 10 point Gianforte win prediction I've had since the beginning. The only difference is I now adjust it to 53-43 to account for Wicks.

[Beet]

Safe Gianforte (R)

[Beet]

Here is the audio

Ok that puts it in context. It's assault.

[Beet]

He can vote for O-care repeal in an orange jumpsuit.

[Beet]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

[Beet]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is a swing state for non presidential elections. They've elected Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, etc. Trump's 20 point win is meaningless in terms of helpfulness to forecast this race.

All those people were first elected before the rise of right wing populism.

[Beet]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is definitely open to Democrats in state and federal offices under the right circumstances. Have you even seen a chart of MT's political party power?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Montana

Look how blue that is. The legislature is generally reliably Republican but state executive and federal offices have been as Democratic as Republican, and if you look at the Senate seats, Democrats have actually controlled those far longer than Republicans for the past century.

You could be right that maybe Quist specifically was never going to win, but MT is not a dead-end for Democrats.

Same reply as to wulfric. I agree that MT was open to Democrats pre 2015, and especially pre 2009, but it's changed. Bullock was lucky to squeak by as an incumbent. I expect the next several years to be very bad for MT Democrats.

[Beet]

Same reply as to wulfric. I agree that MT was open to Democrats pre 2015, and especially pre 2009, but it's changed. Bullock was lucky to squeak by as an incumbent. I expect the next several years to be very bad for MT Democrats.

Then there is no way to debate you on it anyway, though, you shouldn't be too confident with such limited data/election results to back you up.

The evidence is Hillary's 20 point loss in the state, and Bullocks narrow win as an incumbent, plus the non Google consumer survey polls.

[Beet]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

...do you just talk to hear the sound of your own voice?

Very insightful comment. If you read the predictit comments, plus the $100k PF raised its clear this has only energized his supporters.

Edit: lol I'm not attention seeking, the forum doesn't understand how politics has changed in the last 2 years.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/867849890919055360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2Fyznzjfyy2rm2%2FLiveUpdate_56348d5c-41a2-11e7-9e24-0ec220880c66%2F0

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Translation: A Republican can bodyslam me and i'll still vote for him because of the R next to his name!!

Bozeman is an incredibly Democratic city already. Convincing one of the few Republicans there to change their minds would be harder to find than elsewhere in the state. Now, outer Gallatin County on the otherhand would presumably have more of those voters, if they were even to exist (and I'm doubtful they do.)

She's a liberal reporter from the big city, obvious quits supporter trying to get the yokels to admit they were oh so dumb to support PF, now ready to kowtow to her professional superiority. Tomorrow she will get on her plane back east, move ahead three hours, and go back to working with the deep state to undermine trump. PF should have punched her too.

[Beet]

Gianforte has it, based on the Missoula number. He's doing 4.5% better than last year. I pretty much called it.

[Beet]

When are Democrats going to realize places like MT are not coming back. As long as the electoral system favor the GOP they won't win. Also the "Boinie woulda won" crap is so annoying. Bernie would have lost, too. A blue dog centrist might've had a chance.

[Beet]

When are Democrats going to realize places like MT are not coming back. As long as the electoral system favor the GOP they won't win. Also the "Boinie woulda won" crap is so annoying. Bernie would have lost, too. A blue dog centrist might've had a chance.

Who hurt you?

Triggered?

[Beet]

PF is up to 96% on PredictIt

[Beet]

It sucks to be Ben Jacobs right now

[Beet]

Now I'm upset I changed my prediction to 49-47 instead of sticking with 52-45. The lesson tonight: Beet is too optimistic. Need to increase my pessimism.