MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Brittain33]

Frankly, Bernie is the most popular politician in America right now

Do we remember what other Democratic politician became highly popular after losing a primary to the eventual Democratic nominee, gamely supporting the winner's campaign, and returning to Washington in a lower-profile role?

[Brittain33]

Gianforte caught on tape in a Kinsley gaffe speaking warmly of the AHCA while keeping far away in public.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/us/politics/montana-house-special-election-greg-gianforte-health-bill.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

"on the same day, during a private conference call with Republican-leaning lobbyists in Washington, Mr. Gianforte offered a more supportive view of the health bill. Making the case for the 'national significance' of the Montana election on May 25, Mr. Gianforte said: 'The votes in the House are going to determine whether we get tax reform done, sounds like we just passed a health care thing, which I’m thankful for, sounds like we’re starting to repeal and replace.'"

[Brittain33]

What's the track record on these Google polls?

[Brittain33]

Think about Mark Sanford returning to Congress. These races are nationalized and personality defects are rationalizations for why the disfavored party's candidate loses, not reasons. (That said I'm pessimistic about Quist.)

[Brittain33]

Think about Mark Sanford returning to Congress. These races are nationalized and personality defects are rationalizations for why the disfavored party's candidate loses, not reasons. (That said I'm pessimistic about Quist.)

This race hasn't really been nationalized very much, though. Yes, the national mood is clearly a factor, but not nearly as significant as in GA-06, for example. I agree that Quist's "scandals" won't matter on election day, though.

Thanks, I appreciate your perspective from Montana.

[Brittain33]

It would certainly be ironic if this race were headed for a reasonable Republican win until the Comey news in the final week caused an upset.

[Brittain33]

Let's stick to Quist vs. Gianforte, not "socialism vs. fascism." Thank you. —mod.

[Brittain33]

Mass and Montana PVIs are comparable, so Quist winning would be something like Scott Brown's win.

[Brittain33]

5PM EST = 6PM EDT.

[Brittain33]

Gianforte still feels favored in this one. The head of the DCCC had a pessimistic comment recently.

[Brittain33]

It's a crazy evening tonight. Some posts on this thread have been reported but in light of the shock of the news and in the hope that's passed, I'm not going to moderate.

[Brittain33]

The team is probably trying to make sure he doesn't get arrested between now and tomorrow morning.

[Brittain33]

Gallatin County Sheriff holding press conference tonight about this incident.

He's asked people to please stop calling 911 seeking information about the incident.

[Brittain33]

I have a feeling this does nothing tomorrow.

You don't think that this is going to discourage some lukewarm Republican voters, who were already on the fence because of the AHCA, from getting out to vote for someone who may be under arrest by the time they get to the polls?

[Brittain33]

I have a feeling this does nothing tomorrow.

You don't think that this is going to discourage some lukewarm Republican voters, who were already on the fence because of the AHCA, from getting out to vote for someone who may be under arrest by the time they get to the polls?

I think we're being too quick to judge how this will work out, I think his MoV will be narrowed, but not enough to allow Quist to win the seat. If I'm wrong, I'll be happy. But I think we need to be rational here.

Ok, we'll agree to disagree. I think he was going to win narrowly as of yesterday and that the CBO score was an X factor that had the potential to pull him under. I posted a prediction of a 3 point win earlier today.

Considering that the R brand is not doing well now, and how reluctant people were to vote for Hillary Clinton because she was "under investigation"—that Republican candidates are coasting on duty from their core voters and not enthusiasm—this kind of event is fatal.

[Brittain33]

The sheriff's comment asking people to stop calling 911 for information reminded me of the woman on Reno 911! who used to tell guys to call 911 if they wanted to ask her out.

[Brittain33]

You can't make this up... according to the summons, Gianforte lives on Manley Road.

[Brittain33]

Absentee numbers have been updated.

As of 5/25, 11:25:45 AM:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

(Numbers for Cascade County are probably an error and will be fixed soon.)

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 70.9% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 70.2% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 78.3% of mail-ins returned (+0.5)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 78.5% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 69.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.3)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 79.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 74.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 73.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

STATEWIDE: 73.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.2)

Added the change (5/24-5/25, 11:25 AM) in brackets.

So the high points for Quist are probably higher than average turnout from Lewis & Clark and Silver Bow Counties, while Gianforte is lucky for the high turnout in Ravali and flathead counties, plus low ballots returned in Gallatin and Missoula counties?

I don't know how to interpret any of it other than it doesn't show good news for Quist.

[Brittain33]

trendlines are clear, Mt is comparably small - where shall all those quist voters come from?

While the numbers look like Quist loses, the answer to your question is that we are looking at early votes and haven't seen much election day voting.

[Brittain33]

2) Quist was a poor candidate with too many skeletons in his closet who ran a bad campaign according to MT Treasurer, whom I trust. These things made him unlike Bullock, Tester and Schweitzer

Looks like Quist was a Francine Busby caliber candidate.

[Brittain33]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Maybe cause they knew it really wasn't winnable?

Bullock won the state against Gianforte as Clinton lost by 20 points. Jon Tester got elected twice here.

It was winnable with a stronger candidate. Quist has quirk but it doesn't look like that's enough for a Dem in MT. He was already the candidate before this race started to look competitive.

[Brittain33]

So if he's guilty of the misdemeanor, can he stay in the House? Or will he have to resign?

House can choose to expel him or not seat him. If it's a fine or a short jail sentence, they'll let him be a congressman.

[Brittain33]

I'm pleased with how completely ok I am with this result, given the fundamentals here and the attack happened after most people had already voted. A B-level candidate like Quist losing a Trump +20 state by 6 points means Dems are still favored to win GA-6 and the House next year.

[Brittain33]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That is basically what happened when Scott Brown won. He didn't get any more votes than McCain did 15 months before, but Coakley had an enormous drop-off from Obama's totals.