MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Ronnie]

I'm not terribly optimistic about this election, but it'll definitely be interesting to see how a political novice like Quist does in this environment.  He needs a lot of outside help.

[Ronnie]

Fascinating.  Thank you, anthony!

Man, I'm tempted to donate a few bucks to Quist.  The investment might well be worth it.

EDIT: Put my money where my mouth was.  Let's hope it pays off!

[Ronnie]

No surprise, but the mail-in ballot bill is dead

It's telling that Republicans are willing to waste taxpayer dollars just to ensure that fewer people go to the polls.  The country needs to be clear-eyed about the Republican Party's increasing authoritarianism.

[Ronnie]

I don't know why, but my gut tells me Quist pulls it out in a squeaker.  And I'm usually a pessimist.

[Ronnie]

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https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/866729188484624385

[Ronnie]

Do my eyes deceive me, or does that poll give Trump an 80% approval rating with Hispanics, and a 58% approval rating with postgraduates?

[Ronnie]

NEW POLL ALERT
From Change Research/Medium.com

Gianforte- 49%
Quist- 43%
Wicks- 7%

Among those most likely to vote (NO LEAN):
Gianforte- 43%
Quist- 40%

Among those most likely to vote (LEAN):
Gianforte- 48%
Quist- 44%

Among those already decided (ALL VOTERS):
Gianforte- 42%
Quist- 38%

GOOD POLL FOR QUIST! Someone said it's an R internal too.

Uh, source?

[Ronnie]

NEW POLL ALERT
From Change Research/Medium.com

Gianforte- 49%
Quist- 43%
Wicks- 7%

Among those most likely to vote (NO LEAN):
Gianforte- 43%
Quist- 40%

Among those most likely to vote (LEAN):
Gianforte- 48%
Quist- 44%

Among those already decided (ALL VOTERS):
Gianforte- 42%
Quist- 38%

GOOD POLL FOR QUIST! Someone said it's an R internal too.

Uh, source?

He probably just can't post it yet. A google poll brings it up: https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/republican-greg-gianforte-up-6-in-new-montana-poll-e1088b3a28a7

Interesting methodology.  It's a bit unnerving that, according to this poll, a decent chuck of Bullock voters are bleeding away to Gianforte.  Quist needs to keep nearly all of them on his side to have a chance.

[Ronnie]

Fox hasn't mentioned this yet.

That's really the best thing they can do for Gianforte.  Make sure as few people as possible know this incident happened.

[Ronnie]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

[Ronnie]

I think Paul Ryan and Trent Franks' comments confirm what we've all pretty much known: the GOP isn't a party that's held together by principles, or by a belief in liberal democracy and the rule of law; it's defined by its will to power and not much else.  Insofar as the comments of these politicians reflect the mood of the base (which we've seen somewhat confirmed in the comments section of the Fox News article on the incident), I'm not very confident that Gianforte's numbers will erode very much.

[Ronnie]

Gianforte is leading in Cascade County.  Yikes.

[Ronnie]

I think it's entirely possible Gianforte wins by double digits in the end.  Who could have seen that coming?

[Ronnie]

Takeaways:

1) Republicans stayed loyal

2) Quist was a poor candidate with too many skeletons in his closet who ran a bad campaign according to MT Treasurer, whom I trust. These things made him unlike Bullock, Tester and Schweitzer

3) Early vote screwed Quist

4) Montana is a red state, and we should probably just expect that a Republican wins unless there's a popular Democratic incumbent, or polling evidence to the contrary.

[Ronnie]

DDHQ calls it.


LMAO at the prediction thread.

I really should have stuck with my first prediction, in which I thought Gianforte would win by 9, lol.

Anyway, I can't speak for other Democrats, but I've personally never thought of these special elections as referendums on Trump.  It's just too early for that–particularly in Montana and Kansas, which Trump won by large margins–because Trump hasn't really done anything of note yet.  Dems should panic if GOP does well in the 2018 midterms, but not before then.

[Ronnie]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

Is that the new meme, that Bernie can't win rural whites?

Well, he can win them in Vermont.  Not sure about anywhere else.

[Ronnie]

Now that the election is done and dusted, I think it's time to showcase some of the highlights of the great minds on Breitbart comments:

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http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/05/25/greg-gianforte-montana-special-election-win/

And so on...