MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Holmes]

With Quist in the GE, I have a feeling we can win this.

It's winnable but Quist would have to work. It seems like he's willing considering he toured the state shoring up support for this win.

[Holmes]

What appeal does quist have that gives him a chance to win?

He looks and sounds like every other Democrat that's won statewide in recent times.

[Holmes]

My Google Surveys poll is about half done (274/500).  Without spoiling the results, which still can change, there are some trends:

-Right now, "I am not likely to vote in this election" is "winning".  Out of the 274 respondents polled so far, only 176 chose a candidate.  Hopefully, we'll get up to 300 usable respondents by the final tally.
-There is a definite regional divide between Western Montana and Eastern Montana, which is not terribly surprising, though the magnitude of the divide may be.
-Some people are going to be very, very happy with the results, if they hold.  Others, not so much.

Google Surveys hasn't broken down my results by imputed rural/suburban/urban status or imputed income yet, which is disappointing.  They've only given me sex, age and town location data to break down.

I'm gonna guess a very slight Quist lead if there's a really sharp regional divide and western Montana is coming through for him.

[Holmes]

All-mail special election might be back on the table:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/montana/articles/2017-04-07/governor-uses-veto-pen-to-push-mail-only-voting

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This is why Steve Bullock is the man.

This like, doesn't even come close to the most awesome Montana Democratic Governor Veto Hijinks.

Man, quit making me so nostalgic. Look what Hillary cost us

Cost you what? Did she implement the term limits that kicked Schweitzer out of office? There is another Democratic governor in Montana right now.

[Holmes]

I think things will ramp up in this race in late April, early May. Although if (when) Ossoff goes to the runoff, he might continue to suck the energy out of this race.

[Holmes]

Gianforte being a crappy candidate definitely does play a big factor in this race. Republicans have been lining up real stinkers lately. Estes, Gianforte, Handel...

[Holmes]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist likes guns and doesn't like TVs

Not my kind of guy!

[Holmes]

Kander had the better gun ad.

I don't think that's a distinction that he'll lose easily. I think Democrats in the Trump era will become more pro-gun. Not because of pols changing minds but because I can see a decent amount of Democrats being elected in gun-friendly districts next year.

[Holmes]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist likes guns and doesn't like TVs

Not my kind of guy!

Lol, chill. He will vote for gun restrictions, etc. once he is in Congress. This is part of the shtick, we saw this with Tester and Kander as well.

Can't support his anti-TV views.

[Holmes]

New Gravis poll coming soon:

Gravis Marketing‏ @GravisMarketing
Montana Poll being released on Monday will show @RobQuistforMT  gaining ground.

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/860859344526729216

Man AHCA could be game changer

Maybe. But it's Gravis and I wouldn't put much stock into it.

[Holmes]

Quist's crappy campaign is giving them an excuse to look bipartisan.

[Holmes]

Looking forward to the Gianforte landslide!!!!

Really....?

[Holmes]

Also, immediately before this election on Thursday, we'll have:

1. A new CBO score early in the week showing likely over 24 million more uninsured
2. A Comey hearing on Wednesday potentially implicating Trump on obstruction of justice
3. Whatever other bombshells come out between now and then.

A Drmocrat with less skeletons than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with all this.

[Holmes]

Hopefully.

[Holmes]

Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

I voted for Bernie in the primary. Am I a socialist?

Also, this is strange:

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Sr GOP operative, tracking the two specials, notably more concerned about MONTANA than GEORGIA.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/865262696522014720

I would be more concerned about an election being held next week than an election being held next month, too.  There's less time to gin up support.

I agree. The dumpster fire is going on now and likely will still be next week, whereas things will have calmed down in a month's time, hopefully (for our sanity). But Ossoff is a much better candidate than Quist, so who knows.

[Holmes]

So smoking pot in 2017 is "more controversial" than in the 70s?

[Holmes]

I think Gianforte wins by 5 points.

The AP seems to agree with you.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

If Wicks gets 15%, Gianforte is screwed.

[Holmes]

The only thing worst than Shadows spamming up the place with walls of text and pictures from campaign websites is Dwarven saying anything even remotely associated with Sanders is pure socialism.

[Holmes]

^ except for the R counting biases in GA, VA, WI, MI, CO, MO.

Missouri doesn't even have early voting, and absentees are more Democratic than the final vote generally anyway. Georgia is more Democratic than the final vote usually, and I don't know about the rest.

I believe he meant early returns, not necessarily early votes themselves.

[Holmes]

When is the pending Gravis poll supposed to be released?

When they think up some numbers to use.

[Holmes]

surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4

53 of my 60 sample size poll is in and Gianforte only has 4 votes: lol

Quist: 25 Gianforte: 4 Wicks: 2 Undecided: 15 Won't vote: 7

Even with such a tiny sample size as 60 and a sh**tty pollster surely Quist must have some kind of advantage, at least with Google poll takers.

I rest my case. Seriously though, I believe there was a Montana GCS poll that showed Clinton leading Trump in the state, though it was part of a 50-state survey or something like that, LOL.

Wasn't that Reuters? Which were subsamples of their national polls.

[Holmes]

Wasn't that Reuters? Which were subsamples of their national polls.

Nah, Google. Check the link:

National Topline
Clinton: 36
Trump: 35
Johnson: 8
Undecided: 31

Montana
Clinton: 33
Trump: 29

Now all we need is ARG and Zogby to poll this race...

I remember those now. But Reuters also did a 50 state poll thing, and they called it "state of the nation" or something. They had Trump leading in Vermont one time.

2016 was bad for polling.

[Holmes]

Yellowstone might propel Gianforte to victory.

[Holmes]

Gravis polled five Hispanics and four of them were Republicans.

Well, they actually pulled numbers out of their ass as per.

[Holmes]

Gravis polled five Hispanics and four of them were Republicans.

I'm aware this may not have been meant seriously, but the crosstabs indicate that 2% of Hispanics are undecided on Trump - disapproval is at 18% and approval is at 80%. To get those numbers they would have needed to survey 50 Hispanics or more.

Yeah. It's bull.