MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[rob in cal]

  Lets assume the Emerson poll is somewhat off and Gianforte is in fact ahead in the high single digits. Shouldn't the race be closer than this based on what we've seen in Georgia and Kansas?

[rob in cal]

   You'd think there would be more polls of this race as its pretty easy to poll the district since its the whole state.

[rob in cal]

   I'm wondering whether having a pollster include a candidate who isn't on the ballot, nor even running as a write in candidate as a response possibility represents a new low in the industry.

[rob in cal]

  Whats up with Missoula?  One would think the return rate would be higher due to Dem enthusiasm.

[rob in cal]

   Did anyone find out what % the Gravis poll was saying had already voted? 

[rob in cal]

  Has Wicks run much of a visible campaign, and is he trying to tailor his appeal either toward the left or right?

[rob in cal]

  Predict it odds going up and down a bit, right now close to a 50-50 pick.  The comment section there makes Atlas look like one of those scholarly discussion panels on C-SPAN.

[rob in cal]

    One question to ponder is what would have happened had it been a Democrat doing the body slamming.  How would Dem voters have responded to their candidate?  Would they have stayed home or voted for an alternative  or still supported their candidate?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say not too much different than Montana GOP voters did.

[rob in cal]

   Do we know whether Wicks did much better on election day votes than votes by mail? If so that might indicate that some potential GG voters did switch their votes, but probably not enough voters did to get Dwarven to move there anytime soon.