MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MAINEiac4434]

The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Sanders only won MT 52-44. It's not the south, but it's not KS or UT either.

That's not exactly a fair comparison. KS and UT were caucus states, while MT had a primary after AP declared Clinton had clinched the nomination.

TN Vol, any reason why you think Quist is favored? I don't doubt that he'll make it competitive, but it seems like Montana hasn't had a Democratic House representative in a long time.

Not to mention that every single Sanders staffer not a victim of the April 27th downsizing was in California at the time.

Not to mention not to mention Hillary had people on the ground there and won the same-day primary of a neighboring state (SD).

[MAINEiac4434]

I want Quist to win not only because he could be a great populist, but because I wanna see Gianforte get his young-Earth Creationist ass kicked to the curb.

He's a young earth creationist? Man screw this guy.

[MAINEiac4434]

The lack of help from the DSCC seems to confirm their shift from WWC to upscale suburban districts.

Are Democrats now the party of the Bloombergeois?

Unfortunately, it would appear to be this way. Sanders represents the end of an era, rather than the beginning of a new one. He represents the dying gasps of the non-college educated White element of the Democratic Party - the one that can actually transcend partisanship (hence his stunning favorability among Independents). He's the last holdout of the New Deal Coalition and its nearly finalized influence on the party. There's no one who can carry his torch for a reason; the rest are too steeped in modern Democratic politics.

To be honest, I disagree with you. Sanders isn't the end of an era or the beginning of a new one, he's a revival of the New Deal era of Democrats, and I'm seeing a lot more energy, especially in terms of organizing, from progressives and Bernie supporters within the party than I am from liberals and Clinton supporters.

Frankly, Bernie is the most popular politician in America right now, and because of how popular he is among Millennials and how much pull he has in the national party now, his movement, or at the very least his ideas, are gonna last much longer than Clinton/Obama Democrat politics. The fact that nearly half of House Democrats have cosponsored Conyers' perennial Medicare-for-All bill without any push from leadership shows a pretty big push for Democrats to go left.

Exactly. Sanders is to Democrats what Goldwater was to Republicans.

[MAINEiac4434]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

#JustDemocraticPartyThings

[MAINEiac4434]

Reading Gianforte's Wikipedia page:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is this real? Wow.

Has to be someone trolling...right?

Please Christ let quist win

[MAINEiac4434]

Rob Quist Turned Down A Visit From DNC Chair Tom Perez

Not surprising, but this doesn't sound to me like Perez isn't trying everything to get Quist elected.

It's so great to see Perez get constantly shat on.

Honestly it's good to see that he's at least willing to show up for everyone. I get the sense that he's at least trying.

Right? I mean Jesus tapdancing Christ you shit on the party when they try to do stuff and you shit on them when they don't. At least Perez is making an effort. Good god.

[MAINEiac4434]

Rob Quist Turned Down A Visit From DNC Chair Tom Perez

Not surprising, but this doesn't sound to me like Perez isn't trying everything to get Quist elected.

It's so great to see Perez get constantly shat on.

Honestly it's good to see that he's at least willing to show up for everyone. I get the sense that he's at least trying.

Right? I mean Jesus tapdancing Christ you shit on the party when they try to do stuff and you shit on them when they don't. At least Perez is making an effort. Good god.

Not to derail the thread, but I do get the resentment of the party, even when there's a cursory gesture of unity.

For every Perez there's like two Cynthia Dills (#topicalregionalreference)

Yes, but I'd argue Cynthia Dill is a nobody while Perez has an active role in the party.

[MAINEiac4434]

Looking forward to the Gianforte landslide!!!!

If you define a landslide as 1-5 points while getting 48-49% of the vote, go ahead.

If Democrat newspapers are endorsing Gianforte, he probably has a good shot at a 10 point or 12 point win, and that's big for MT in non-presidential races.

Newspaper endorsements do not matter.

Can't believe people believe this after like literally every paper in the country endorsed Hillary last fall.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm a bit skeptical about this. What kind of candidate in a potentially close election assaults a reporter the day before the election?

One who says retirement doesn't exist because Noah.

If Gianforte wins he'll have to resign within days, then we get ANOTHER Special Election.

Sounds good to me, I'm ready for it!

Quist 2017 Part 2!

[MAINEiac4434]

If Gianforte the Giant wins, he will probably be censured by the House almost immediately after being sworn in.

[MAINEiac4434]

Gianforte campaign completely lies in his statement

They must not know the audio's already out.

[MAINEiac4434]

Vote WicksQuist.

[MAINEiac4434]

Fox hasn't mentioned this yet.

Republican State Media hasn't mentioned it yet? Shocking.

[MAINEiac4434]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Really, it's adorable they think that this is all it would take.

[MAINEiac4434]

Here in Anaconda, no one had heard Gianforte news. I played audio at the bar and there the reaction could be summed up as "oh my god"
https://twitter.com/annehelen/status/867548633327063040


Source tells me that some Quist canvassers are now playing audio of the Gianforte/Guardian incident for voters.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/867553143688753152

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAA

At like 8 PM?

Canvassing regularly goes into the evening, especially in more populated areas. It's the only time when a lot of people are home.

Also, it's only 7:30, this broke at around 6.  Plenty of canvassing is still going on. It's still light out.

[MAINEiac4434]

Here in Anaconda, no one had heard Gianforte news. I played audio at the bar and there the reaction could be summed up as "oh my god"
https://twitter.com/annehelen/status/867548633327063040


Source tells me that some Quist canvassers are now playing audio of the Gianforte/Guardian incident for voters.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/867553143688753152

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAA

At like 8 PM?

Canvassing regularly goes into the evening, especially in more populated areas. It's the only time when a lot of people are home.

Also, it's only 7:30, this broke at around 6.  Plenty of canvassing is still going on. It's still light out.

I've never once worked for a campaign that allowed canvassing after 6:00 PM. It's like campaigning 101. It tends to annoy otherwise approachable voters. I'd be amazed if either candidate has people out past sunset.

The sun hasn't set yet in Montana.

[MAINEiac4434]

How many people have voted already?

About 2/3 of the electorate. But undecideds and leaners vote on election day. The GOP has to do well in election day vote to win.

[MAINEiac4434]

How many people have voted already?

About 2/3 of the electorate. But undecideds and leaners vote on election day. The GOP has to do well in election day vote to win.

Surely not ever single person votes that's registered, in other words, there won't be 100% turnout. They are already topping 70% turnout, how many more people could there even be left that want to vote tomorrow?

Sorry, I meant 2/3 of the early vote.

[MAINEiac4434]

Front page of FoxNews.com right now.

[MAINEiac4434]

Takeaways:

1) Republicans stayed loyal

2) Quist was a poor candidate with too many skeletons in his closet who ran a bad campaign according to MT Treasurer, whom I trust. These things made him unlike Bullock, Tester and Schweitzer

3) Early vote screwed Quist

[MAINEiac4434]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Maybe cause they knew it really wasn't winnable?

Bullock won the state against Gianforte as Clinton lost by 20 points. Jon Tester got elected twice here.

1) Those two are more moderate than Quist

2) The media markets aren't even comparable

3) Hillary did better in GA-6 than MT-AL by about eighty miles.

Not every seat deserves equal funding. Sorry. Georgia-6 was always, always more winnable than MT-AL.

[MAINEiac4434]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.