MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Actually, Montana is much less urban and more rural than people think (not majority rural, but pretty close to it, IIRC). So when the Democrats win statewide, it's not just because they run up the margin in Missoula, Bozeman and Helena (and keeping it close in Bozeman/Yellowstone County!), but they also have to avoid getting clobbered in the rural areas.

Anyway, Democrats in the state really despise Gianforte with a passion, LOL. The press is definitely on Quist's side, which is much more helpful than a GOTV operation or something like that. I also agree with Skill and Chance that this is an easy race for Bernie Democrats to win. If they can't win here, there's not much reason to believe they'll win elsewhere.

Republicans definitely dodged a bullet when the healthcare bill failed, so Gianforte still has a chance.

Of course you also forgot the Democratic bases of Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, Trump and Fox almost flipped them, but Gianforte got destroyed in both. If they go from being 70% D to 50-50, that hurts Democrats and helps Republicans going forward.

That's not a long-term trend and there's no reason to believe that it will "help Republicans going forward"...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

BREAKING NEWS: incredibly wealthy man from New Jersey spends inordinate amounts of money to purchase tags for his favored past-time, which he is able to devote himself to because he's wealthy (hunting bears and wolves is not normal folks, that's for freaks) authentic Montana man presumably fishes without a license.

Not too many people hunt without licenses. Loads of people fish without having a fishing license.

It's unfortunate that anyone would care about this but people are often very stupid about identity politics issues. Man must respect hunting camo. Man must wear underarmor and own an arsenal. I'm #triggered by Priuses.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Watched the debate & Gianforte seemed like a hard right, uber religious, "muh defense spending increase & national security", strong supporter of Trump, cut benefits of Healthcare coverage, Climate change denying "Humans have some impact in Climate Change ala Scott Pruitt" guy. He has also got a big likeability & honesty problem. You may not agree with McCain's or Collins' policies, but they are honest & likeable. Gianforte seemed like a "Slimy Politician" 101 type person! Doesn't look like a candidate, a left leaning MT Treasurer type people will vote for !

He is obviously trying to move to to center just for this campaign but he seemed like a small version of Ted Cruz. Wouldn't be surprised if he joined the Freedom Caucus & Tea party lunatics!

Gianforte went to Fox & called Quist a Pelosi with a hat who wants a 90% Income Tax & said the Trump train is going forward well in Montana, praised Trump & is campaigning hard with Donald Trump Jr! That 90% Income tax is garbage but he can speak any lie & get away just like his hero Trump !

Trump's favorables are +13 in Montana, according to the Emerson poll.  So campaigning with Donald Trump Jr. and praising President Trump is simply smart politics.

Highly unlikely that this is the case considering that national polling shows him at a ~43% approval rating.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

As Quist Breaks Out, Decades Old Lawsuit Sheds Light on Montana Democrat’s Marriage and Career
Montana Democrat's account of surgery, preexisting condition challenged by doctor, legal records show
Washington Free Beacon/Brent Scher
May 16, 2017 2:00PM

Another oppo dump on Quist.  The doctor in the medical malpractice case Quist has used as part of his narrative about why he didn't pay his taxes alleged that Quist had genital herpes, tested positive for tuberculosis, and smoked pot.

oh my god, this is despicable stuff.

this is going to backfire imo. this comes across as being a petty and insignificant smear at a time when serious issues vital to the national interest are being discussed. so what if quist has herpes?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.