MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Adam Griffin]

Weird qualitative update, but I'm trying to organize out of state phone banks for Quist here in Chicago. The campaign finally got back to me after months of wrangling, and they literally just sent an OpenVPB* link and a "good luck!" email.

I'm losing confidence every day to be perfectly frank.

*for those not in the know, basically the lowest effort (and indeed, least useful) tool for distributed organizing built into the Democratic field platform NGPVAN.

I wouldn't necessarily read too much into this as far as the quality of the campaign goes. I've had the same issue with a certain nearby campaign and I know there's no issue with regard to its organizational prowess. It just comes down to fielding all of the requests they get; often, it's more of a distraction for them than anything to field these kinds of (well-meaning) inquiries.

Many people reach out to campaigns and then never follow through, so it can sometimes feel like a waste of time to engage with individual volunteers not explicitly showing up to an office or already working on the campaign.

[Adam Griffin]

Based on the absentee results from the previous page:

[Adam Griffin]

Do mail in ballots in Montana lean Republican as they typically do elsewhere in the country do they have no lean/ a Dem lean typically?  I want to know what to expect when I start seeing results on election day.

No, the first returns always show Democrats with a massive lead. In last year's election, Bullock was up 13 points with 15% of the vote in on election day, IIRC, and he only won by 4 in the end. In 2012, he also had a massive lead in the early returns, but only won by 1.5 in the end. A similar thing happened in the Senate races in 2006 and 2012.

Another question based on the map I posted earlier: is it common for people in larger/Democratic counties and/or urban areas to be slower at returning their ballots? The percentage returned in almost all of the populated and Democratic areas is behind the rest of the state as of a couple of days ago.

[Adam Griffin]

Could it be that they're more worried about Montana just because the Montana race is sooner and therefore a more immediate concern?

I think it's more that both campaigns have effectively 'maxed out' in the GA 6. Like, if you have a Democratic campaign that's suspended direct voter contact operations because they've completely saturated the universe... how much more can either campaign do? Meanwhile, while PF has been spending a lot of money, and Quist has a decent warchest as well, there's still a lot more 'to do' for each campaign.

Exactly. Knowing two different people who have worked on statewide Democratic campaigns in Montana, I've heard stories about canvassers driving 15-30 minutes between houses in the more rural parts of the state - and you have to do it because elections where the Democrat can win are usually won by razor-thin margins. I'm sure there's no way either campaign has reached saturation for anything besides TV, which happened (by Montana standards) a long time ago I'd bet.

[Adam Griffin]

From our view, no. From a socially conservative state like Montana, well let's just hope that you are right. And I notice how you left off the NRA factor, now that is damaging.

I wouldn't describe Montana as "socially conservative" - at least not in the Southern, Bible-thumping "do as I say, not as I do" mold. That is in its own classification and quite separate from what you're conflating with what someone might call "rural values".

I really doubt there's any meaningful number of voters there who are open to voting for Democrats at any level but who would be bothered by the weed thing, or even the nude thing, to the extent that it'd decide their vote. Anything to do with guns would have much more impact, but even then, NRA whining is increasingly worthless.

[Adam Griffin]

They're obviously having to do some last-minute crosstab fudging before it's ready.

[Adam Griffin]

They're obviously having to do some last-minute crosstab fudging before it's ready.

Told you!

Gravis should be banned from this forum...talk about polling blue balls

We did basically ban Gravis from the forum averages two years ago...but then a bunch of n00bs came in and everybody forgot about how sh[inks]tty Gravis was and they were given legitimacy here again.

[Adam Griffin]

I've never once worked for a campaign that allowed canvassing after 6:00 PM. It's like campaigning 101. It tends to annoy otherwise approachable voters. I'd be amazed if either candidate has people out past sunset.

In Florida? Everybody is like 1,000 years old there so that makes sense.

[Adam Griffin]

I've never once worked for a campaign that allowed canvassing after 6:00 PM. It's like campaigning 101. It tends to annoy otherwise approachable voters. I'd be amazed if either candidate has people out past sunset.

In Florida? Everybody is like 1,000 years old there so that makes sense.

Have you ever had a 43 year old house wife shriek at you on her porch at 3:00 PM? Imagine if I interrupted dinner!

That's just the liquor talking!

[Adam Griffin]

People are apparently calling 911 there giving political commentary and the police there want it to stop.

Half of the callers are probably Atlas posters.

"Hello? There's a violent criminal on the loose rampaging through the streets of Montana, bodyslamming people left and right - and the police refuse to arrest him!"

[Adam Griffin]

People are apparently calling 911 there giving political commentary and the police there want it to stop.

Half of the callers are probably Atlas posters.

"I was wanting to get your take on how big of a swing you'd expect among females who haven't voted and who live in counties where domestic violence rates are higher than average? I'm imagining around 10 points. Discuss with maps."

[Adam Griffin]

If Gianforte wins after this can we finally admit that Republicans are deplorable and are just simply bad people?

Some Democrats aren't any better. Let's not forget the dead cops chant. There is crazy in everyone.

BOTH SIDES DO IT

[Adam Griffin]

Can we please start calling him Crazy Greg? I love the Donald Trump style naming and this one has a real ring to it.

Slammin' Greg

[Adam Griffin]

Featuring:
Greg Pianoforte (as the piano)
Piano men (as the GOP)
Frank Reynolds (as the Dems)
Charlie (as Ben Jacobs)
Mac (as Rob Quist)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO66-ic9C1E

[Adam Griffin]

We might assume that Quist would do better in early vote than on Election Day under normal circumstances, but I'm not sure how much of an effect there'd be with a) widespread mail ballot usage and b) body-slamming.

I'm not sure Gianforte would be doing substantially better in early vote (if at all), which means that he probably has more to lose in this situation than if it were Quist doing the body-slamming the day before the election.

In other words, if Quist is going to win, he's probably already got a lead with votes returned and there probably wasn't a lot of wiggle room for gains had this happened sooner. In fact, this probably happened at the best possible time assuming the general rule of how EV/ED vote slant applies - and also how the ED Montana electorate is reportedly less partisan.

[Adam Griffin]

In other words, if Quist is going to win, he's probably already got a lead with votes returned and there probably wasn't a lot of wiggle room for gains had this happened sooner. In fact, this probably happened at the best possible time assuming the general rule of how EV/ED vote slant applies - and also how the ED Montana electorate is reportedly less partisan.

Wouldn't a few days prior have been optimal? The night before election day doesn't seem to give much time for the electorate to marinate with this scandal. There could be a lot of people going to vote tomorrow that haven't even heard about it yet, in which case, I hope Quist has volunteers out in force giving people a heads up before they vote.

I don't know. News cycles run fast: had this happened a few days ago, it wouldn't surprise me if the shock would have already worn off and some people who might have bucked initially would end up back in the Pianoforte camp.

If what I'm hearing about the polarization of EV/ED electorates there is true, then it would have had less of an impact with the EV crowd + I'm unsure if the percentage of people who returned their ballots in the past few days is even one-third of the number of people who'll vote tomorrow.

[Adam Griffin]

Would be kind of dumb to go on the air in the final hours of voting - would have minimal impact. If he was going to go on any shows, he should have done it first thing this morning.

[Adam Griffin]

This is not a statement, it's a bunch of confusing gibberish.

That's likely the fault of whoever wrote the transcript. I can see multiple instances where punctuation and/or new sentences should have been used that weren't.

[Adam Griffin]

Ol' Chuck is just feelin' sassy because he didn't get the interview he wanted. Desperate!

[Adam Griffin]

So, are we for the most part going into this blind, since all we had were pretty sh!tty pollsters and then Google Consumer Surveys?

Why did no really good pollsters poll the race?

With well above $10 million being spent on this race by the campaigns, you'd think at least one decent internal would have leaked. Even if not, it blows my mind that nobody bothered polling such an expensive race (by normal standards, let alone by MT standards).

[Adam Griffin]

One question that I don't think was ever actually answered - is early vote by mail in MT more Democratic than ED?  Like, do we actually know that this is the case in a special election in a state where its prevalence is so widespread?

[Adam Griffin]

Gianforte just gained another half a point from somewhere (+2.3).

[Adam Griffin]

Greg Gianforte (Republican)    48.3%   96,507
Rob Quist (Democratic)    46.0%   91,828
Mark Wicks (Libertarian)    5.7%   11,443

[Adam Griffin]

Reminder that a strong ground-game can only add about 3 points to your margin in contests like these. So if Quist loses by more than 3, save all the "but muh DCCC" crap...even if you ignore that he was massively-funded by MT standards and had more than enough money to do whatever was necessary.

[Adam Griffin]

...and Quist officially crosses the "but muh DCCC" threshold of irrelevance.