1998 Without Impeachment and 2002 Without 9/11

[Blackacre]

This is a two-parter. 1998 and 2002 are notable for being the only midterms since FDR that benefitted the incumbent party. In 1998 it was due to an unpopular impeachment and in 2002 it was because of the rally around the flag effect post-9/11.

What would the House and Senate races have looked like had those events not occurred? Had 1998 and 2002 just been normal midterms, how would the races have gone? Would the House have flipped in 2002? How much could the GOP have gotten in 1998?

For the sake of simplicity let's take the two events in isolation of one another, rather than a 2002 without 9/11 after a 1998 with no impeachment.

[Mr. Smith]

Not sure about '98, but in 2002:

Jean Carnahan holds Missouri-SEN
Max Cleland re-elected

[Nym90]

Democrats most likely would've won the House majority in 2002 if it were a "normal" midterm. They only needed a 6-7 seat gain to win the chamber. Redistricting was unfavorable for them, and Bush didn't have many coattails in 2000 since he lost the popular vote, but still should have been a slam dunk for the Democrats especially given the economy was slumping.

[Kingpoleon]

2002 House(D+15 to OTL):
AL-3(Joe Turnham>Mike Rogers)
CO-7(Mike Feeley>Bob Beauprez)
FL-5(Karen Thurman>Ginny Brown-Waite)
GA-11(Roger Kahn>Phil Gingrey)
IL-8(Melissa Bean>Phil Crane)
IL-19(David D. Phelps>John Shimkus)
IN-2(Tim Roemer>Chris Chocola)
IN-8(Bryan Hartke>John Hostettler)
IA-2(Dave Loebsack)
KY-3(Jack Conway>Anne Northrup)
NE-2(Jim Esch>Lee Terry)
NC-8(Larry Kissell>Robin Hayes)
PA-6(Dan Wofford>Jim Gerlach)
SD-AL(Stephanie Herseth>Bill Janklow)
TX-23(Henry Cuellar>Henry Bonilla)

One of Gephardt, Hoyer, or Menendez is most likely to become Speaker.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

This is a two-parter. 1998 and 2002 are notable for being the only midterms since FDR that benefitted the incumbent party. In 1998 it was due to an unpopular impeachment and in 2002 it was because of the rally around the flag effect post-9/11.

1962 should be added because Democrats gained Senate seats and the minor House losses were Dems who didn't support Kennedy anyway.

I'd like to see more what-ifs midterm elections on this forum...seems like we only get presidential what-ifs.

2002: I say Democrats get a House majority, but it probably wouldn't be by much due to redistricting. I say the Senate is a one-seat gain for D's..they get NH and AR, R's get MN. MO and GA are D holds.

1998: I don't remember this election as well, but it wouldn't have taken much of a shift for the GOP to gain Senate seats. Didn't Harry Reid win by just 500 some votes? Maybe Faircloth survives too. No clue about the House races, but I doubt Republicans could've made more than single-digit gains due to a) peace and prosperity under a Democratic president, b) low Democratic exposure (due to the '94 elections), and c) no redistricting.

[Sumner 1868]

The easiest way is have Democrats retake the House in 1996. This shouldn't be especially hard - quite a few close seats that year, and it probably would have happened without the fundraising controversy. It's also possible the 2000 Republican nominee (and likely winner) isn't George W. Bush.

[Pericles]

2.5% swing to Republicans
1998 Senate elections
Trent Lott-Republican: 57+2
Tom Daschle-Democratic: 43-2
100 seats
50 for majority
 
Harry Reid and Russ Feingold lose.

1998 House elections
Newt Gingrich-Republican: 231+4 50.4%
Dick Gephardt-Democratic: 203-3 45.3%