Turkey referendum, 2017

[Tender Branson]

Here's how many voters are eligible to vote outside of Turkey:



+100.000 in the US.

Austria, Netherlands and Belgium had the highest AKP-vote in 2015 (with 2/3 or more).

[Tender Branson]

Erdogan currently campaigns with the following slogan:



Translated from Turkish, it means this:



"One people, one realm, one leader."

Or as the poster says: "As one people, one realm, one leader we must vote Yes on April 16."

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

Actually, it translates as "One flag, one fatherland, one nation (or people), one state".

[ApatheticAustrian]

^^

Actually, it translates as "One Flag, one fatherland, one nation (or people), one state".

thanks

was just asking a friend of mine, if that could be true. xD

[Sorenroy]

From CrabCake's original post, the proposed changes aren't universally terrible. It's just what are are pretty horrendous.

Could someone tell me just how fair Turkey's election process is? Is there significant ballot stuffing by the party in power, are there scare tactics to intimidate voters into voting a specific way, or are the results truly representative of what the voting public actually believes? Basically, is this an actual election, or just a sham to give legitimacy to Erdogan's decision to consolidate his own power?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Turkey's elections are not outright fraudulent or anything. You get petty tampering in provincial areas and a lot of "election day campaigning" that is not exactly above board, but this is not state sanctioned or anything; rather it's local groups of party cadres (not just from the AKP) that behave as parties tend to do in flaws democracies.

Not that this referendum is remotely fair in the way it is being conducted, but that's more due to the state of crisis the AKP has stoked and the increasingly supine and fearful media, which has led to the public at large not knowing what they are voting for. The quality of debate is "vote 'yes' if you like Erdogan (or dislike him, but prefer him to the PKK)". That's the thing with for direct democracy - unless both sides are given equal ability to explain themselves they tend towards being undemocratic plebiscites.

[jaichind]

Gezici poll has ‘Yes’ Vote at 53.3%.  This is the first time ‘yes’ vote is ahead in 15 surveys conducted by Gezici.

‘Yes’ vote might go up to 56% if fewer people decide to participate

55% of Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voters to say ‘yes’
15% of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) voters to say ‘yes’

[jaichind]

"One people, one realm, one leader."

Or as the poster says: "As one people, one realm, one leader we must vote Yes on April 16."

Yeah, but Hitler copied that slogan from the Catholic Church with "‘One, Holy, Catholic, and Apostolic Church"

[Antonio the Sixth]

15% of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) voters to say ‘yes’

Kurds for Erdogan!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

15% of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) voters to say ‘yes’

Kurds for Erdogan!

Not an insubstantial demographic - there are quite a lot of conservative Kurds (heck, Turkey's Kurdish population is exploding dramatically, so they really need those votes).

[Tender Branson]

I recently had a dream that Erdogan wins the referendum with 58.63% of valid votes cast, so I'll take this as my prediction.

[DavidB.]

15% of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) voters to say ‘yes’

Kurds for Erdogan!

Not an insubstantial demographic - there are quite a lot of conservative Kurds (heck, Turkey's Kurdish population is exploding dramatically, so they really need those votes).

That's the PKK for you

[Tender Branson]

Worldwide turnout among Turks abroad was about 30% until Wednesday.

In Germany it was 32%, in Austria 38%.

Today is the last day to vote and it seems Turks in Germany are heading for 45-50% turnout and 50-55% in Austria.

That is more than for the 2015 parliamentary elections, but not significantly higher.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was the final voting day for Turks abroad, here are the final numbers:

Germany: 48.7% turnout (2015 election: 40.8%)
Austria: 50.6% turnout (2015 election: 40.6%)
Switzerland: 57.1% turnout (2015 election: 44.8%)

Worldwide: 47.0% turnout (2015 election: 44.8%)

1.323.640 of 2.972.676 cast ballots abroad.

[DavidB.]

Turnout was 60% in Belgium; it seems the turnout percentage in the Netherlands has not been calculated yet.

[Simfan34]

15% of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) voters to say ‘yes’

Kurds for Erdogan!

Not an insubstantial demographic - there are quite a lot of conservative Kurds (heck, Turkey's Kurdish population is exploding dramatically, so they really need those votes).

I understand that there is a Kurdish Hezbollah? Most Kurds are rural and generally poorer and less educated than other Turks, so it follows that some of them would be conservative, at least more naturally than them being feminist pro-LGBT left-wingers (which is what most of them do vote for).

[ApatheticAustrian]

to be totally fair:

erdogan, or at least the AKP, was for years the most pro-kurds politican actor/legal party in the country and much better than the anti-kurd nationalist/social-democrats.

the this has obviously reversed itself but those kurds voting for AKP are not just stupid.

[jaichind]

Turkey Pollster Konda Sees ‘Yes’ Vote at 51.5%, ‘No’ at 48.5%
By Taylan Bilgic
(Bloomberg) -- Survey on Sunday’s referendum conducted April 7-9, pollster Konda says on website.
Results obtained after 9% undecided are distributed
“Considering margin of error, it would be misleading to offer an exact opinion on the result”
Margin of error 2.4ppts
Face-to-face surveys conducted in 30 provinces with 3,462 people
Participation rate seen at 90%

[jaichind]

Metropoll poll

‘Yes’ at 47.5%, ‘No’ at 43.1% before 9.4% undecideds are distributed

Projects Yes’ at 52.5%, ‘No’ at 47.5%

[Tender Branson]

I recently had a dream that Erdogan wins the referendum with 58.63% of valid votes cast, so I'll take this as my prediction.

Does nobody else want to post a prediction ?

This is already tomorrow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I recently had a dream that Erdogan wins the referendum with 58.63% of valid votes cast, so I'll take this as my prediction.

Does nobody else want to post a prediction ?

I'd say Yes wins because these things usually go badly. Not going to give a number though.

[jaichind]

Prediction: Yes 53 No 47

[Lachi]

It will be close, but I think, unfortunately, Yes will squeak it.

[Zanas]

I'll say a 54% Yes win. Don't think Erdogan can allow the people to defeat him at this point.

[ApatheticAustrian]

since the government promised civil war and destruction if NO should win, he also can't imagine a loss of the regime.