Is the Senate lost for a generation for the Dems?

[Shadows]

2016 was a huge missed opportunity where Dems could pick up a lot of seats but s didn't.
Current Stand - 52-48

Let us look at realistic Scenarios -

2018 -
Likely/Lean R(Dem Seats) - IN, MO, MT, ND, WV (All 5 Seats are strong GOP fav where Trump won big)
Toss up (Dem seats) - OH, FL (& maybe PA or WI or MI)
Toss up (GOP seats) - AZ, NV

Even if Dems retain their toss-up states & take say 1 of AZ or NV & retain say 1 out of 5 almost sure-shot loser cases, they will lost a net of 3 seats.

Result - 55-45

2020 -
Dem Toss up Seats - NH
GOP Toss up Seats - NC, ME, IW, GA

Let us say Dems retain & wrest 1 seat for the GOP which looks as the best Dem scenario (realistic)

Result - 54-46

2022 -

Same as 2016 -
GOP Toss up Seats - PA, NC, OH, MO , IW, GA, IN, FL
Dems essentially need to win 5 out 7 of GOP toss-up seats (assuming IW, GA tighten - Trump does bad etc)

Let's say Dems win 5/8

Final Result - 51-49

This is way too optimistic & depends on Dems winning all their toss-up states & wresting more than half of GOP toss up states - Something they failed - 2016 with Trump could have been the year to pull a big deal in the Senate

It looks very VERY hard for the Dems to win the Senate even by 2022.

Do you feel there is any chance to retake the Senate in the near future?

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Midterms tend to be bad for the presidents party, incumbents can have strong ticket splitting, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

It really depends on whether they can avoid getting crushed in 2018.

[Virginiá]

A generation is usually viewed as up to 20 years, give or take. So in that respect, no. They may be out until 2022, though. Like TN said, it depends how well they do in 2018. If they can limit GOP gains then they can rebuild over the next 3 cycles. Best case scenario may envision a slim majority (or 50/50) by Jan 2021 if they can pretty much make 2018 a wash for Republicans.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ask me in two years once we know whether we are looking at a 51-49 GOP majority or a 65-35 one.

[progressive85]

Let's see:

ID, MT, ID, WY, UT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MS, AL, TN, KY, WV, AR, LA, MO, GA, SC, IN, AK - there's 23 conservative states, 46 Republican senators.

VT, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI, CA, OR, WA, HI - there's 12 progressive states, 24 Democratic senators.

So already there is basically double the safe Rs than safe Ds.  The pathway for Rs  to get a majority is much easier than for the Democrats.

Republicans probably can get the 2 AZ seats, so that takes them to 48.  All they need is 3 more -- Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, boom.

The Democrats would have to certainly win all 12 New England seats -- adding NH and ME, they can get to 26 seats.  They'd have to have both seats in MN -- 28 -- and NV, NM, and CO -- there's 6 for 34.  They need 17 more seats for a bare majority.  MI they have 2... 36 seats.  Then VA, both.  38.  WI, 40.  (sorry im bad at math)  Now they need 10.  They need to have at least one in PA, OH, and FL.  Now they need 7.

Democrats had so many seats in 2009-2010 because they had some very red-state senators and just like those House seats, they're not winning those seats back.

I honestly don't know if the Democrats will have a comfortable Senate majority in the 20's.  That might be a tough decade for them.  I think the House, after its been de-gerrymandered, has more potential for a Democratic takeover.

2018 really needs to be the year of state victories-- state houses, state senates, governors-- that's going to matter so much more than very precarious congressional victories.

[Heisenberg]

It really depends on whether they can avoid getting crushed in 2018.

This. Also, the abbreviation for Iowa is IA, not IW, and that state is now clearly at least Lean R and will only move more rightward. Never say never, but fr now, the Senate does favor Republicans.

[Nyvin]

Ask me in two years once we know whether we are looking at a 51-49 GOP majority or a 65-35 one.

Uhh...no.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

In 2018, Dems are probably going to lose at least 8 seats, and could lose up to 13 (though unlikely). It's probably time to disband.

[Figueira]

In 2018, Dems are probably going to lose at least 8 seats, and could lose up to 13 (though unlikely). It's probably time to disband.

And I'm guessing we should give up on NH-02 as well?

[Xing]

Yes, the Democratic Party is totally finished, just like they were after 2004. We might as well just all become Republicans, since the pendulum is now forever frozen on the right.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

This is not the democrats best-case scenario.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Yes, the Democratic Party is totally finished, just like they were after 2004. We might as well just all become Republicans, since the pendulum is now forever frozen on the right.

Elections are becoming racially polarized, slowly transforming into the deep south, which means the GOP have a permanent majority for generations now.

[Kingpoleon]

The Democrats' near absolute worst case scenario is a 54-46 R Senate(Heitkamp and one of McCaskill or Donnelly loses). Their likely absolute worst is a pickup in NV being offset by a loss in ND.

In 2020, unless Trump wins by ~3.5% or more, only NH is remotely in danger. NC, IA, MT, AK, CO, and GA could all potentially flip. Maybe Texas or Kentucky if a strong Trumpist or libertarian runs, or if there's a strong primary challenge. 2022 has at least ten potential D pickups, and at best four potential R pickups.

[Heisenberg]

The Democrats' near absolute worst case scenario is a 54-46 R Senate(Heitkamp and one of McCaskill or Donnelly loses). Their likely absolute worst is a pickup in NV being offset by a loss in ND.

2022 has at least ten potential D pickups.

No, not really...

Totally agree. And how the hell does New Freaking Hampshire flip before Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, and even Oregon?

[Figueira]

Ten potential Democratic pickups in 2022? Let's see...

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia

Those are the only really obvious ones I see, and none of them are guaranteed. I guess there's Iowa and Ohio as well. Beyond that we're basically just naming random states.

[Kingpoleon]

Ten potential Democratic pickups in 2022? Let's see...

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia

Those are the only really obvious ones I see, and none of them are guaranteed. I guess there's Iowa and Ohio as well. Beyond that we're basically just naming random states.

AZ, FL, GA, IA, NC, PA, and WI. OH if Portman retires, is primaries out, or runs for Governor against a Democratic Governor. AK if Murkowski retires, is primaried out, or runs for Governor. IN/MO if an extremist wins the primary.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Ten potential Democratic pickups in 2022? Let's see...

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia

Those are the only really obvious ones I see, and none of them are guaranteed. I guess there's Iowa and Ohio as well. Beyond that we're basically just naming random states.

AZ, FL, GA, IA, NC, PA, and WI. OH if Portman retires, is primaries out, or runs for Governor against a Democratic Governor. AK if Murkowski retires, is primaried out, or runs for Governor. IN/MO if an extremist wins the primary.

MO could flip without. It was within 3 points this year, and if trump wins reelection it will be unlikely that 2022 is worse for democrats then this year. Now if a democrat narrowly wins 2020.....

Hell, KT might flip in a big wave, Grey significantly(20 points) over-performed Clinton during a red wave. It doesn't look likely at this point, but we don't actually have any evidence that the hard R trend in local KT/WV/TN elections will stay during a bad republican midterm. KT/WV should get at least a little investment in 2018, and attempts to craft an effective message, just to see if it works. If it fails, not that much money was lost. If it succeeds, it succeeds, and gives republicans one hell of a time.

[Figueira]

Ten potential Democratic pickups in 2022? Let's see...

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia

Those are the only really obvious ones I see, and none of them are guaranteed. I guess there's Iowa and Ohio as well. Beyond that we're basically just naming random states.

AZ, FL, GA, IA, NC, PA, and WI. OH if Portman retires, is primaries out, or runs for Governor against a Democratic Governor. AK if Murkowski retires, is primaried out, or runs for Governor. IN/MO if an extremist wins the primary.

Right, forgot about AK. Yeah, I guess you could say that there are 10 possibilities (I think IN is probably going to be more winnable than MO for Democrats in the future) but most of them are kind of a stretch.

[Shadows]

DC & Puerto Rico getting a total of 4 Senators will make it easier for Dems. The GOP platform calls for PR statehood so lets see what happens.

It looks very hard when you are fishing into TX, GA, AZ etc to win the majority!

[Mr. Smith]

2008: Is the Senate lost for a generation for the GOP?

We know how that turned out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2008: Is the Senate lost for a generation for the GOP?

We know how that turned out.

Scenario 2018 as Dems seize govs in NJ, NV, FL, IL, WI, ME, MD and MI

Scenario 2020 as Dems win AK, Iowa, NC, CO senate seats as Dems take back control with Julian Castro or Martin Heinrich or Tim Ryan taking out Trump. Prefer Populist Tim Ryan