U.K Local By-Elections Thread
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Author Topic: U.K Local By-Elections Thread  (Read 38284 times)
Ben.
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« on: July 15, 2005, 08:32:29 AM »
« edited: April 07, 2006, 07:15:07 AM by Al the Sleepy Bear »

Thread modification is currently going on. Should be finished soon.

Edit by Al -- your's friendly neighbourhood despot
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2005, 03:38:54 PM »

In Shropshire all of Telford and Wrekin and a third of Shrewsbury & Atcham is up.

Telford & Wrekin :  I can see Labours majority going up as the new leader (Austin) must be more of a vote winner than the old one (Davis). Possible pick ups  College, Ketley & Oakengates (3rd seat), Wrockwardine Wood & Trench (2nd seat), Lawley & Overdale (2nd seat), Madeley (2nd seat) and Horsehay & Lightmoor (both seats).

As for Shrewsbury & Atcham I dont know what wards are up but the Tories are certain to lose overall control.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2005, 04:00:16 PM »

Telford & Wrekin :  I can see Labours majority going up as the new leader (Austin) must be more of a vote winner than the old one (Davis). Possible pick ups  College, Ketley & Oakengates (3rd seat), Wrockwardine Wood & Trench (2nd seat), Lawley & Overdale (2nd seat), Madeley (2nd seat) and Horsehay & Lightmoor (both seats).

Agreed; Phil Davis wasn't actually that bad at running the council, but to say he had a flair for public relations disasters is something of an understatement... oh and I'll be handing out leaflets in some of those wards methinks

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Agreed
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2005, 04:01:36 PM »

Shrewsbury & Atcham:

Correction Council is already No Overall Control.  My prediction is for Labour to Gain 1 seat from the Tories (Battlefield & Heathgates) changing the line up to :

Cons 19
Labour 12
Lib Dem 6
Independent 3

Though the tories will still be in power thanks to most of the three independents supporting them (though I MAY BE WRONG ?)
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2005, 04:04:53 PM »

Telford & Wrekin :  I can see Labours majority going up as the new leader (Austin) must be more of a vote winner than the old one (Davis). Possible pick ups  College, Ketley & Oakengates (3rd seat), Wrockwardine Wood & Trench (2nd seat), Lawley & Overdale (2nd seat), Madeley (2nd seat) and Horsehay & Lightmoor (both seats).

Agreed; Phil Davis wasn't actually that bad at running the council, but to say he had a flair for public relations disasters is something of an understatement... oh and I'll be handing out leaflets in some of those wards methinks

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Agreed

No he was probably ok as a political Leader but PR is what matters. Apparently his wife is well liked and used to be leader of Shropshire CC. Are you standing AL ?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2005, 04:19:56 PM »

No he was probably ok as a political Leader but PR is what matters.

True

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No; I did give it a bit of thought but I've too much to be worried with as it is.
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WMS
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« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2005, 01:20:44 PM »


No; I did give it a bit of thought but I've too much to be worried with as it is.

Darn. Too bad. Wink
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« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2005, 11:07:54 AM »

If possible could posters start to let us know what by elections are coming up that they know about. Last result, candidates etc.

Thanks
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2005, 02:23:15 PM »

I was under the impression initially that the LibDems had won a bigger majority in Newcastle,

Same here. Labour held their ground in the wards along the Tyne, but got nuked in the suburbs. I now know why... there was a big row about education shortly before the election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2005, 04:25:06 PM »

. Who is the 3rd party. So called Independents ?

Yep. Last I heard anyway.
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« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2005, 02:58:35 PM »

Some Interesting Results last night.

Westminster LBC : Harrow Road
Labour Hold
Swings were 6.15% from LibDem TO Lab, 1.95% from Con to Lab and 4.2% from LibDem to Con.

If they were repeated in an election (London) seats only Labour would pick up 3 seats from the Tories and 2 seats the LibDems. The Tories would in turn pick up 3 seats from the Lib Dems.

This would leave the LibDems with only 3 seats in London
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2005, 05:02:38 PM »

Cambridge City DC                               Coleridge
Lab 829 (46.8;+13.0), LD 638 (36.0;+14.8), Con 263 (14.8;-7.4),
UKIP 42 (2.4;–5.7)
[Grn (0;–14.7)]
Majority 191. Turnout 30.2 Lab hold. Last fought 2004.


Carrick DC                                              Falmouth Trescobeas
LD 351 (47.8;-9.4), Lab 282 (38.4;–4.4), Con 101 (13.8;+13.8)
Majority 69. Turnout 26. LD hold.


Castle Morpeth BC                               Pegswood
LD 417 (62.0;+62.0), Lab 242 (36.0;–44.6), Grn 14 (2.0;+2.0)
[Con (0;–19.4)]
Majority 175. LD gain Lab. Last fought 2003.


Castle Morpeth BC                               Ponteland East
Con 468 (58.6;+11.5), LD 312 (39.1;-13.8), Grn 18 (2.3;+2.3)
Majority 156. Con gain LD. Last fought 2003.


City of Westminster LBC                 Harrow Rd
Lab 774 (62.9;+10.3), Con 306 (24.9;+6.4), LD 150 (12.2;-2.0)
Majority 468. Turnout 16. Lab hold. Last fought 2002.


Cotswold DC                                             Kempsford/Lechlade
Con 683 (62.9;+23.7), LD 403 (37.1;+21.3)
[Ind (0;-45.0)]
Majority 280. Turnout 34.7. Con gain Ind. Last fought 2003.


Oxford City DC                                  Northfield Brook
Lab 592 (54.7;+8.2), IWCA 300 (27.7;-12.8), LD 141 (13.0;+5.0),
Con 31 (2.9;-2.9), GRN 19 (1.7;-3.3)
Majority 451. Turnout 26.1. Lab hold. Last fought 2002.


Walsall MBC                                             Willenhall South
Lab 862 (45.4;+1.4), Con 486 (25.6;-2.4), LD 399 (21.0;-7.4),
BNP 151 (7.6;+7.6)
Majority 376. Turnout 19.5. Lab hold. Last fought 2004.


Falmouth TC                                             Trescobeas
LD 424 (58.9), Lab 296 (41.1)
Majority 128. Turnout 25.6. LD hold.

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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2005, 01:12:07 PM »

The by election result from Willenhall South (Walsall) produced the following swings : 1.8% from Con to Lab, 4.4% Lib Dem to Lab and 2.5% Lib Dem to Con.

If this swing was repeated regionally Labour would Gain 2 seats from the Tories (The Wrekin & Shrewsbury and Atcham). The Tories would gain 2 sweats from the Lib Dems (Hereford and Solihull).

Any thoughts.
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2005, 12:40:02 PM »

What seats are up tommorrow ? Is it the two wards in Brum ? The ones caused by disqualification by elected members ? Any predictions ?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2005, 01:34:23 PM »

Not sure... if the two Brum wards are up, I'd expect wins for the LD's and the PJP
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2005, 03:41:25 PM »

Not sure... if the two Brum wards are up, I'd expect wins for the LD's and the PJP

Who are PJP ?

Dont you think there will be a Pro-LABOUR EFFECT WITH RESPECT TO THE NATIONAL PICTURE AT THE MOMENT ?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2005, 05:03:34 PM »


Peoples Justice Party. Think a sort of Kashmiri BNP. "Respect" latched onto the PJP's organisation in the General Election in Brum

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Perhaps, and seeing as there's more than one seat up in each ward (I think) Labour might come away with one or two seats.
Mind you todays events have probably messed things up completely. Anything could happen...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2005, 08:56:44 AM »

LibDems won the Aston ward (taking all three seats), PJP won the Bordesley Green but only took 2 out of the 3 seats; Labour won the other one.
So two far right gains. Damn.

Aston summary: LD 49.7%, Lab 43.8%. Turnout 25.9%
Labour missed the third seat by 9 votes

Bordesley Green summary: PJP 37.7%, Lab 36%, LD 21%. Turnout 31.3%

Some fringe parties (Greens, Tories etc.) also ran in both wards but polled comically low shares so I couldn't be bothered to work them out.

I have a strong suspicion that the PJP vote in Bordesley Green is er... well... let's just say... potential libel you say? Oh... well... PM me if you want to know...
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« Reply #18 on: August 05, 2005, 02:58:36 PM »

Only 2 of note.

Forest of Dean DC, Hartpury
Con 288 (50.3%)
Ind 262 (45.8%)
Lab 22 (3.8%)
Con Hold unopposed in 2003

Newport CC, Graig
Con 770 (57.4%, + 6%)
Lab 503 (37.5%, + 6.3%)
Green 69 (5.1%, + 5.1%)
Con Hold, No LD candidate 17.4% last time

It would be very interseting to see a parliamentary by election in A LAB-CON mARGINAL ME THINKS
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2005, 03:06:30 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2006, 08:21:03 AM by Al Widdershins »

Forest of Dean DC, Hartpury
Con 288 (50.3%)
Ind 262 (45.8%)
Lab 22 (3.8%)
Con Hold unopposed in 2003

Hartpury is nowhere near the Forest and shouldn't be in the District let alone the Constituency [insert my usual rant about Freeing the Forest here]
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Rural Radical
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« Reply #20 on: August 05, 2005, 03:25:10 PM »

Forest of Dean DC, Hartpury
Con 288 (50.3%)
Ind 262 (45.8%)
Lab 22 (3.8%)
Con Hold unopposed in 2003

Hartpury is nowhere near the Forest and shouldn't be in the District let alone the Constituency [insert my usual rant about Freeing the Forest here]

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True Smiley

Hartpury is further out than Newent its nearly in Gloucester
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2005, 03:14:22 PM »

From IndigoPA:

UPDATE 12 August - Labour gain from Liberal Democrats in Broxtowe - SNP gain from Labour in Falkirk - Conservative hold in Conwy -

Anyone got any details?
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« Reply #22 on: August 18, 2005, 02:31:29 PM »

Falkirk SDC, hERBERTSHIRE
snp 1019 (62.7%, +27.3%)
Lab 532 (32.7%, -21.5%)
Con 46 (2.8%, -7.6%)

bROXTOWE BC, sTAPLEFORD sOUTHwEST
Lab 466 (39.2%, -1.8%)
LD 353 (34%, - 9.7%)
CON 278 (26.8%, +11.5%)

More good showings for Labour against THE lIB dEMS. wITH THE cONS MAKING UP SOME GROUND AGAINST THE Lib Dems as well
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #23 on: August 18, 2005, 02:37:28 PM »

I don't like the increase in the SNP vote; mind you they got similer swings in that part of the world in a couple of council by-elections before the General Election and didn't make any headway in the real thing...
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« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2005, 06:49:30 AM »

News From Shropshire.

A couple of elections coming up

Shrewsbury & Atcham BC, Monkmoor : Labour, should be a Labour hold barring disater.

North Shropshire DC, Whitchurch South : Independent, If Labour got a candidate they could win this one.
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