U.K Local By-Elections Thread

[afleitch]

Perhaps they're starting to behave more like their English and Welsh counterparts?

I would say so- though it seems to be 'flaking' off to other parties in a haphazard way meaning no one opposition party can push forward.

Tomorrow is also the 10th anniverary of the unitary authorities How we cheer....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Frustratingly neither PA nor the ALDC have put any results up yet. I gather there weren't many wards up last night, but still...
Another ward in Scotland was up, btw. A very middle class one in South Lanarkshire (Avondale South; which from the size of it and the demographics looks like commuterland) where the Tories are defending. Can't see them losing that.

[afleitch]

Frustratingly neither PA nor the ALDC have put any results up yet. I gather there weren't many wards up last night, but still...
Another ward in Scotland was up, btw. A very middle class one in South Lanarkshire (Avondale South; which from the size of it and the demographics looks like commuterland) where the Tories are defending. Can't see them losing that.

They certainly should not They had a 14.2% majority...but of course who knows. Avondale South is a huge southern ward taking up the bottom third of the East Kilbride Holyrood constituency and is pretty sparsely populated

Got the Result

CON 775
LAB 315
SNP 221

There were other candidates I'm sure so I cant get the exact result, but on raw numbers, Tories down 66 votes, Labour were down 242 votes, SNP down 220 votes.


EDIT:

CON 775 --- 50.9% UP 9.2%
LAB 315 ---  20.73% DOWN 6.77%
SNP 221 --- 14.53% DOWN 7.27%
IND 79 --- 5.19%
GREEN!! 71 ---4.64%
LIB DEM 59 --- 3.88% DOWN 5.12%

[afleitch]

Up next in Scotland we have

Biggar, Symington and Blackmount- South Lanarkshire - May 11th
SNP defending with 37.7% majority. Tories distant second.

Altonhill Hillhead and Longpark - East Ayrshire - No date set
SNP defending with 23.4% majority. Labour distant second.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PA hath finally put up ze results so...

As noted already Labour had yet another nightmare night in Scotland; the Stirling defeat has apparently removed Labour's overall majority on the council. But it looks to have been the standard-issue shock SNP by-election gain that they've always been rather good at (albeit not so much at Westminster level these days). The Glasgow result is more worrying (for reasons discussed above).
Not much happend in England; Labour gained/held (the former counciller for the ward had been elected as Labour but had since left the party) a seat in Mansfield (where there was a strong showing for the Greenies (third place; above the Tories, and a disasterous result for the ruling Independents. Their candidate had to pull out after being arrested or something like that...) and the LibDems held a seat in Surrey (and this time the Labour candidate polled rather more than six votes; it was 102).

Basically the general patterns that we've seen over the past few months are still very much noticable.

[minionofmidas]

Would be hard not to, as that general pattern is "swings all over the place".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would be hard not to, as that general pattern is "swings all over the place".

As far as the Tories and LibDems go, yeah... that's true (there's probably *some* pattern to it, but I'm not entirely sure *what*...) but the pattern for Labour has been about as clear as local election patterns get (and seeing as much of it's (ie; everything but the Godawful results in Scotland...) been there in some form since the 2004 locals at least (actually I'm thinking of checking to see if they go beyond that) it's no blip.

Personally I think there's been a lot of movement with the electorate in recent months, even if the overall numbers aren't greatly different (when taking into account various shorterm bounces and crashes) to 2005. This year's locals won't be a great indicator (except maybe for London) though.

[Rural Radical]

G ood result for labour in Mansfield.

[Democratic Hawk]

Biggar, Symington and Blackmount- South Lanarkshire - May 11th
SNP defending with 37.7% majority. Tories distant second.

My next door neighbour's from Biggar

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

There will be a forthcoming by-election on Durham County Council - the Framwellgate Moor division following the death of the Labour incumbent earlier this month, who was Deputy Leader of the Council

2005: Lab 2339; LD 1952; Con 496 - majority of 387

All three candidates were Bearpark residents, all of whom personally known by the 'Hawk'

The division itself comprises two City Council Wards: Framwellgate Moor (1 Ind, 1 Lab); and Bearpark and Witton Gilbert (3 LD). It includes the parishes of Bearpark (Lab), Framwellgate Moor (Ind - I think) and Witton Gilbert (LD)

I believe it has been Labour since 1974 but I'm not sure if the boundaries have been constant since that time. Labour are yet to select a candidate, the by-election has yet to be called and the date determined

The County Council itself is rock-solid Labour (the only English shire Labour didn't lose in 1977) but the Liberal Democrats are a force in the City of Durham District (which Labour lost to them in 2003)

In the absence of a strong personal vote for the late incumbent, Labour will need to work very hard to hold it

There is also a City Council by-election this Thursday in Sherburn ward, which is currently Lib Dem. It's traditionally Labour (a merger of the old Sherburn and Shadforth wards), but was one of the Lib Dems many gains in 2003

Dave

[Harry Hayfield]

Can I ask what people think of this map from London Labour Party (showing the locals in 2002):

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can I ask what people think of this map from London Labour Party (showing the locals in 2002):

It's a nice map

I think it shows which party has the most councillers in each ward; not sure though.

[afleitch]

Nice to see Chiswick blue

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An interesting night for sure...

Three seats were up in Copeland; one Labour, one Indie and one Tory. The Labour and Tory seats were easily held by their respective parties, but Labour gained the Indy seat (for those of you who know Cumberland the Labour hold was in Whitehaven, the Labour gain in Cleator Moor and the Tory hold in a big ward stretching from the coast to Wast Water).

In Durham City the LibDems just about held onto (by 33 votes) to the Shadforth & Sherburn ward, but there was a massive (c.11pts) swing to Labour. Better news for the LibDems came in Alnwick, where they gained Alnmouth off the Tories on another huge swing, and in Blaby (Leics) where they came very close to upsetting the Tories in Whetstone.
The Tories easily splatted a Residents attack in Bromsgrove, and UKIP polled very well in two rural Lincolnshire seats (the coastal area inbetween Boston and Skegness in case anyone be interested) but the Tories easily held both (in what's always been on of there better corners of Lincs).
And better news for the Tories came in various middle class wards across the South (one in Vale of White Horse, one in Wealden and one in Windsor & Maidenhead) with some good swings from the LibDems (although no seats changed hands). And finally, the Tories held a safe ward in Wellingborough, but Labour managed a decent swing there as well.

[Democratic Hawk]

In Durham City the LibDems just about held onto (by 33 votes) to the Shadforth & Sherburn ward, but there was a massive (c.11pts) swing to Labour.

It puts Angela in good stead for next year. I'd expected worse given that at around 5.30pm turnout in Sherburn Hill was only around 10% . All three ward seats could be regained with good local Labour candidates in 2007

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just a notification; seperate threads for the 2006 local elections will be set up shortly. I'm thinking of one thread for London and one for the rest of England.

[Democratic Hawk]

There will be a forthcoming by-election on Durham County Council - the Framwellgate Moor division following the death of the Labour incumbent earlier this month, who was Deputy Leader of the Council

2005: Lab 2339; LD 1952; Con 496 - majority of 387

All three candidates were Bearpark residents, all of whom personally known by the 'Hawk'

The division itself comprises two City Council Wards: Framwellgate Moor (1 Ind, 1 Lab); and Bearpark and Witton Gilbert (3 LD). It includes the parishes of Bearpark (Lab), Framwellgate Moor (Ind - I think) and Witton Gilbert (LD)

I believe it has been Labour since 1974 but I'm not sure if the boundaries have been constant since that time. Labour are yet to select a candidate, the by-election has yet to be called and the date determined

The County Council itself is rock-solid Labour (the only English shire Labour didn't lose in 1977) but the Liberal Democrats are a force in the City of Durham District (which Labour lost to them in 2003)

In the absence of a strong personal vote for the late incumbent, Labour will need to work very hard to hold it

There is also a City Council by-election this Thursday in Sherburn ward, which is currently Lib Dem. It's traditionally Labour (a merger of the old Sherburn and Shadforth wards), but was one of the Lib Dems many gains in 2003

Dave

Given the 6.9% swing to Labour in the, January, Durham South county by-election and last nights 11% swing to Labour in the Shadforth and Sherburn city by-election, there are grounds for optimsim in the forthcoming Framwellgate Moor by-election (date yet to be determined and Labour candidate selected) but it's going to be hard fought contest between Labour and the Lib Dems, who I understand are running the same candidate as in 2005. No news yet on the Conservatives

Dave

[Ben.]

Slightly off topic, but… would anybody care to make a prediction on how the local elections will play out in May?         

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Slightly off topic, but… would anybody care to make a prediction on how the local elections will play out in May?         

Two threads on that will be up soon, but in extremely broad terms, I'm expecting Labour to do quite well in the Mets, but not so well (to put it mildly) in London (although only a few boroughs will be bad; one is going to be Brent o/c...). The districts will vary a lot, as they always do. The Tories will likely make good progress against the LibDems in commuterland everywhere, but will struggle to make much progress in the Mets (I am expect some hyper-targetting of a handful of currently LibDem gentrified/yuppy wards here and there though. Whether that pays off will be interesting to see), while the LibDems will probably fall back in most of the Mets, while gaining in certain parts of London.
The general pattern of 2005 (and 2004 actually) will be seen again, but with some changes.

[afleitch]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/uk_politics/2006/election_2006/default.stm

New site up for local elections- with a now standard flash results map.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll take that as a signal to open the election threads...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A mixed picture...

The LibDems did well in the West Country, making gains off Tories and Indies in Wiltshire and Somerset, while the Tories did well against the LibDems elsewhere, getting a string of good swings in the Home Counties and an enormous win off the LibDems in Derbyshire Dales (where there was a suprisingly good (well... for the non-Wirksworth/Cromford parts of the district) showing for Labour, who also easily held a safe ward in South Derbyshire where there was almost no swing at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Much to the suprise of just about everyone, Labour actually made a *gain* last night; Mablethorpe East (East Lindsey DC) a ward on the Lincolnshire coast with very interesting demographics (it's very working class for the most part, but there's also a very high % of managerial types).
The LibDems fell from first to third.
Mablethorpe is in the Louth & Horncastle constituency.

Not much else to report; the LibDems had decent swings to them in two seats they were defending from Tory attacks (one in Hants and one in Cornwall).

[Rural Radical]

Much to the suprise of just about everyone, Labour actually made a *gain* last night; Mablethorpe East (East Lindsey DC) a ward on the Lincolnshire coast with very interesting demographics (it's very working class for the most part, but there's also a very high % of managerial types).
The LibDems fell from first to third.
Mablethorpe is in the Louth & Horncastle constituency.

Not much else to report; the LibDems had decent swings to them in two seats they were defending from Tory attacks (one in Hants and one in Cornwall).

IIRC Labour also hold the Mablethorpe Division on Lincolnshire County Council.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some interesting results last night; the most eye-catching was in Scarborough were the Greens won a seat off the Tories.
Better news for the Tories came in South Lanarkshire, where they took Biggar off the SNP in what probably counts as an upset (I think Biggar is usually thought of as a safe SNP town?) while the Labour candidate polled something like 3% of the vote (although to be fair, the Labour vote was only 9% there in 2003).
Labour had a good result in Wansbeck, while the Tories lost a seat in Surrey to one of those Residents Parties.