U.K Local By-Elections Thread

[Rural Radical]

In Shropshire all of Telford and Wrekin and a third of Shrewsbury & Atcham is up.

Telford & Wrekin :  I can see Labours majority going up as the new leader (Austin) must be more of a vote winner than the old one (Davis). Possible pick ups  College, Ketley & Oakengates (3rd seat), Wrockwardine Wood & Trench (2nd seat), Lawley & Overdale (2nd seat), Madeley (2nd seat) and Horsehay & Lightmoor (both seats).

As for Shrewsbury & Atcham I dont know what wards are up but the Tories are certain to lose overall control.

[Rural Radical]

Shrewsbury & Atcham:

Correction Council is already No Overall Control.  My prediction is for Labour to Gain 1 seat from the Tories (Battlefield & Heathgates) changing the line up to :

Cons 19
Labour 12
Lib Dem 6
Independent 3

Though the tories will still be in power thanks to most of the three independents supporting them (though I MAY BE WRONG ?)

[Rural Radical]

Telford & Wrekin :  I can see Labours majority going up as the new leader (Austin) must be more of a vote winner than the old one (Davis). Possible pick ups  College, Ketley & Oakengates (3rd seat), Wrockwardine Wood & Trench (2nd seat), Lawley & Overdale (2nd seat), Madeley (2nd seat) and Horsehay & Lightmoor (both seats).

Agreed; Phil Davis wasn't actually that bad at running the council, but to say he had a flair for public relations disasters is something of an understatement... oh and I'll be handing out leaflets in some of those wards methinks

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Agreed

No he was probably ok as a political Leader but PR is what matters. Apparently his wife is well liked and used to be leader of Shropshire CC. Are you standing AL ?

[Rural Radical]

If possible could posters start to let us know what by elections are coming up that they know about. Last result, candidates etc.

Thanks

[Rural Radical]

Some Interesting Results last night.

Westminster LBC : Harrow Road
Labour Hold
Swings were 6.15% from LibDem TO Lab, 1.95% from Con to Lab and 4.2% from LibDem to Con.

If they were repeated in an election (London) seats only Labour would pick up 3 seats from the Tories and 2 seats the LibDems. The Tories would in turn pick up 3 seats from the Lib Dems.

This would leave the LibDems with only 3 seats in London

[Rural Radical]

The by election result from Willenhall South (Walsall) produced the following swings : 1.8% from Con to Lab, 4.4% Lib Dem to Lab and 2.5% Lib Dem to Con.

If this swing was repeated regionally Labour would Gain 2 seats from the Tories (The Wrekin & Shrewsbury and Atcham). The Tories would gain 2 sweats from the Lib Dems (Hereford and Solihull).

Any thoughts.

[Rural Radical]

What seats are up tommorrow ? Is it the two wards in Brum ? The ones caused by disqualification by elected members ? Any predictions ?

[Rural Radical]

Not sure... if the two Brum wards are up, I'd expect wins for the LD's and the PJP

Who are PJP ?

Dont you think there will be a Pro-LABOUR EFFECT WITH RESPECT TO THE NATIONAL PICTURE AT THE MOMENT ?

[Rural Radical]

Only 2 of note.

Forest of Dean DC, Hartpury
Con 288 (50.3%)
Ind 262 (45.8%)
Lab 22 (3.8%)
Con Hold unopposed in 2003

Newport CC, Graig
Con 770 (57.4%, + 6%)
Lab 503 (37.5%, + 6.3%)
Green 69 (5.1%, + 5.1%)
Con Hold, No LD candidate 17.4% last time

It would be very interseting to see a parliamentary by election in A LAB-CON mARGINAL ME THINKS

[Rural Radical]

Forest of Dean DC, Hartpury
Con 288 (50.3%)
Ind 262 (45.8%)
Lab 22 (3.8%)
Con Hold unopposed in 2003

Hartpury is nowhere near the Forest and shouldn't be in the District let alone the Constituency [insert my usual rant about Freeing the Forest here]

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True

Hartpury is further out than Newent its nearly in Gloucester

[Rural Radical]

Falkirk SDC, hERBERTSHIRE
snp 1019 (62.7%, +27.3%)
Lab 532 (32.7%, -21.5%)
Con 46 (2.8%, -7.6%)

bROXTOWE BC, sTAPLEFORD sOUTHwEST
Lab 466 (39.2%, -1.8%)
LD 353 (34%, - 9.7%)
CON 278 (26.8%, +11.5%)

More good showings for Labour against THE lIB dEMS. wITH THE cONS MAKING UP SOME GROUND AGAINST THE Lib Dems as well

[Rural Radical]

News From Shropshire.

A couple of elections coming up

Shrewsbury & Atcham BC, Monkmoor : Labour, should be a Labour hold barring disater.

North Shropshire DC, Whitchurch South : Independent, If Labour got a candidate they could win this one.

[Rural Radical]

By election results 1st September 2005

South Kesteven DC, All Saints (Stamford)
Con 271 (40.8%, -14.9%)
Lab 193 (29%, -15.3%)
Lib Dem 186 (28%, + 28%)
Ind 14 (2.1%, + 2.1%)
Con Hold

South Kesteven DC, Earlsfield (Grantham)
Lab 219 (62.2%, + 13.4%)
Con 133 (37.8%, + 6.2%)
Lab Hold

The two results were affected IMO by the Lib Dems putting a candidate into the first and not in the second contest

[Rural Radical]

Ithink Grantham is split between the two parties certainly at Lincolnshire CC level.

South and East heavily Labour. North and west marginally Tory.

Good Holiday ?

[Rural Radical]

Ithink Grantham is split between the two parties certainly at Lincolnshire CC level.

South and East heavily Labour. North and west marginally Tory.

So overall Labour-inclined (albeit marginally so). Isn't irony great

But I don't know Grantham that well... isn't it a railway town?
 Yes a bit like Crewe but not as heavily Labour inclined

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Yep

[Rural Radical]

Results 9th September 2005

Birmingham UA, Tyburn
Lab 1451 (52.4%, +19.3%)
Con 982 (35.5%, +12.5%)
LD 334 (12.1%, -4.3%)
Lab Hold

Castle Point DC, Canvey Island North
Lab 399 (45.8%, +20.1%)
CIIP 315 (36.1%, -11.5%)
Con 131 (15%, -7.8%)
LD 27 (3.1%, + 3.1%)
Lab GAIN from CIIP (Whoever they are ?)

[Rural Radical]

this weeks contests

Hertfordshire CC, Shephall
Lab 1144 (45.5%, -5.5%)
LD 994 (39.6%, +18.8%)
Con 374 (14.9%, -13.3%)
Lab HOLD

Surrey CC, Goldaming, South Milford & Whitny
Con 2042 (49.4%, +0.01%)
LD 1974 (47.8%, +6.7%)
Lab 115 (2.8%, -6.7%)
Con HOLD

Solihull MBC, Knowle
Con 1247 (46.1% -15%)
LD 1232 (46%, +21.3%)
Green 134 (5%, +5%)
Lab 63 (2.3%, -11.4%)
Con HOLD

Southampton UA, Bitterne Park
Con 984 (37.1%, +5.8%)
Lab 791 (29.9%, - 10.4%)
LD 785 (29.6%, +0.2%)
Green 89
Con GAIN from Lab

Chelmsford BC, The Lawns
LD 1130 (65.3%, +20%)
Con 540 (31.2, -13.6%)
Lab 40 (2.3%, -3.9%)
UKIP 20 (1.1%, 1.1%)
LD HOLD

High Peak DC, Dinting
Con 322 (58.5%, +3.7%)
Lab 128 (23.3%, -4%)
LD 100 (18.2%, +0.3%)
Con HOLD

High Peak DC, Whitfield
Lab 212 (52.7%, +12%)
LD 135 (33.6%, +33.6%)
Con (13.7, 13.7%)
Lab GAIN from Glossop Independent

[Rural Radical]

Labour are Generally doing well in the Midlands and Northern England, Badly in Southern England and Ironically quite good in London.

[Rural Radical]

Wrekin UA

Labour hold Arleston (South East Wellington)


Cons Gain College (East Wellington)

[Rural Radical]

I think he meant, including lower-level councils inside Surrey.

I'd guessed that; 19 is still far more than I'd thought there'd be... I thought maybe 8 or so at the most.

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*tries to get head round this*

*head explodes*

To be fair their is a liklihood that Labour can have"safe" seats in a county like Surrey. They are probably base areas like council estates etc.

In Durham (County Council) there are 2 pretty safe Conservative Divisions (The rural areas in and around Barnard Castle) in the safest Labour County Council (ironically the only Labour County Council in 1977). The polar opposite is Buckinghamshire (the only Conservative County Council in 1993).

The 2 labour members in Surrey, and the 4 in Bucks(High Wycombe area) equate to the 2 Conservatives in Co. Durham.

[Rural Radical]

They are probably base areas like council estates etc.

Very probably; still seems odd though

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True; although big parts of both (or is it just one?) of the two Tory divisions in Co. Durham used to be in Yorkshire (NR). Romaldkirk and all that.

Quite true. Though Barnard Castle is a marginally Labour Town out voted by the rural areas. The town is split between the two divisions.

[Rural Radical]

Yes labour have gained a seat of the Lib Dems in Oxford (Jerico & Osney)
Labour held a seat in Lancaster BC  WITH AN INCREASED MAJORITY.

Held a seat in North Lincolnshire with a swing from the Cons. They also held a seat by 52 votes (coming within 52 votes from losing control of the council. Composition is now Cons 22 Labour 21)

Also Cons gained a seat of the Lib Dems in Howden (ironically David Davis's Constituency.

[Rural Radical]

Oh this is classic; apparently Howden was held by the guy that Davis beat in the General Election!

Why did he step down. To parachuted into a safe Lib Dem seat ?

[Rural Radical]

A few extra results.

Carrick DC, Kenwyn & Chacewater
Con 350 (71%, +25.2%)
LD 216 (29%, -4.6%)
Con GAIN from LD

Forest Heath DC, Red Lodge
LD 173 (55.3%, +55.3%)
Con 111 (35.5%, -20.3%)
UKIP 29 (9.3%, +9.3%)
LD GAIN from Con

Lewes DC, Peacehaven North
Con 406 (64.6%, 12.7%)
LD 113 (18%, -12%)
Lab 109 (17.4%, -0.8%)
Con HOLD

Lichfield DC, Chadsmead
Con 192 (39.2%, -5.9%)
Lab 181 (36.9%, -4.3%)
LD 117 (23.9%, +10.2%)
Con GAIN from Lab

[Rural Radical]

IIRC we now don't have any by-elections until the New Year. Assuming that this is the case the net changes for this year are:

Con +2, Lab +1, LD +12, SNP +4, PC +1, Ind -20

This is the first year for quite a while that Labour has had a net gain in; and in the past few years losses have been pretty heavy (-14 in 2004, -18 in 2003 etc, etc).
The LibDems had had a truely excellent year up until these past few months when they've suddenly lost a fair bit of ground. Reverse this comment for the Tories.

Very interesting. IMO next year will see good amount of gains for Labour and the Conservativesand a bad one for the Lib Dems.

What was the Last year Labour ended up with More councillors than the year before ? 1996 or 1997 ? Also what was the last year a governing party won more council seats thatn the year before ? 1982 ?