U.K Local By-Elections Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Telford & Wrekin :  I can see Labours majority going up as the new leader (Austin) must be more of a vote winner than the old one (Davis). Possible pick ups  College, Ketley & Oakengates (3rd seat), Wrockwardine Wood & Trench (2nd seat), Lawley & Overdale (2nd seat), Madeley (2nd seat) and Horsehay & Lightmoor (both seats).

Agreed; Phil Davis wasn't actually that bad at running the council, but to say he had a flair for public relations disasters is something of an understatement... oh and I'll be handing out leaflets in some of those wards methinks

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Agreed

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No he was probably ok as a political Leader but PR is what matters.

True

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No; I did give it a bit of thought but I've too much to be worried with as it is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was under the impression initially that the LibDems had won a bigger majority in Newcastle,

Same here. Labour held their ground in the wards along the Tyne, but got nuked in the suburbs. I now know why... there was a big row about education shortly before the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

. Who is the 3rd party. So called Independents ?

Yep. Last I heard anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cambridge City DC                               Coleridge
Lab 829 (46.8;+13.0), LD 638 (36.0;+14.8), Con 263 (14.8;-7.4),
UKIP 42 (2.4;–5.7)
[Grn (0;–14.7)]
Majority 191. Turnout 30.2 Lab hold. Last fought 2004.


Carrick DC                                              Falmouth Trescobeas
LD 351 (47.8;-9.4), Lab 282 (38.4;–4.4), Con 101 (13.8;+13.8)
Majority 69. Turnout 26. LD hold.


Castle Morpeth BC                               Pegswood
LD 417 (62.0;+62.0), Lab 242 (36.0;–44.6), Grn 14 (2.0;+2.0)
[Con (0;–19.4)]
Majority 175. LD gain Lab. Last fought 2003.


Castle Morpeth BC                               Ponteland East
Con 468 (58.6;+11.5), LD 312 (39.1;-13.8), Grn 18 (2.3;+2.3)
Majority 156. Con gain LD. Last fought 2003.


City of Westminster LBC                 Harrow Rd
Lab 774 (62.9;+10.3), Con 306 (24.9;+6.4), LD 150 (12.2;-2.0)
Majority 468. Turnout 16. Lab hold. Last fought 2002.


Cotswold DC                                             Kempsford/Lechlade
Con 683 (62.9;+23.7), LD 403 (37.1;+21.3)
[Ind (0;-45.0)]
Majority 280. Turnout 34.7. Con gain Ind. Last fought 2003.


Oxford City DC                                  Northfield Brook
Lab 592 (54.7;+8.2), IWCA 300 (27.7;-12.8), LD 141 (13.0;+5.0),
Con 31 (2.9;-2.9), GRN 19 (1.7;-3.3)
Majority 451. Turnout 26.1. Lab hold. Last fought 2002.


Walsall MBC                                             Willenhall South
Lab 862 (45.4;+1.4), Con 486 (25.6;-2.4), LD 399 (21.0;-7.4),
BNP 151 (7.6;+7.6)
Majority 376. Turnout 19.5. Lab hold. Last fought 2004.


Falmouth TC                                             Trescobeas
LD 424 (58.9), Lab 296 (41.1)
Majority 128. Turnout 25.6. LD hold.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure... if the two Brum wards are up, I'd expect wins for the LD's and the PJP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who are PJP ?

Peoples Justice Party. Think a sort of Kashmiri BNP. "Respect" latched onto the PJP's organisation in the General Election in Brum

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Perhaps, and seeing as there's more than one seat up in each ward (I think) Labour might come away with one or two seats.
Mind you todays events have probably messed things up completely. Anything could happen...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LibDems won the Aston ward (taking all three seats), PJP won the Bordesley Green but only took 2 out of the 3 seats; Labour won the other one.
So two far right gains. Damn.

Aston summary: LD 49.7%, Lab 43.8%. Turnout 25.9%
Labour missed the third seat by 9 votes

Bordesley Green summary: PJP 37.7%, Lab 36%, LD 21%. Turnout 31.3%

Some fringe parties (Greens, Tories etc.) also ran in both wards but polled comically low shares so I couldn't be bothered to work them out.

I have a strong suspicion that the PJP vote in Bordesley Green is er... well... let's just say... potential libel you say? Oh... well... PM me if you want to know...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Forest of Dean DC, Hartpury
Con 288 (50.3%)
Ind 262 (45.8%)
Lab 22 (3.8%)
Con Hold unopposed in 2003

Hartpury is nowhere near the Forest and shouldn't be in the District let alone the Constituency [insert my usual rant about Freeing the Forest here]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From IndigoPA:

UPDATE 12 August - Labour gain from Liberal Democrats in Broxtowe - SNP gain from Labour in Falkirk - Conservative hold in Conwy -

Anyone got any details?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't like the increase in the SNP vote; mind you they got similer swings in that part of the world in a couple of council by-elections before the General Election and didn't make any headway in the real thing...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've alwaysed loved the irony of Grantham being a Labour inclined town

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ithink Grantham is split between the two parties certainly at Lincolnshire CC level.

South and East heavily Labour. North and west marginally Tory.

So overall Labour-inclined (albeit marginally so). Isn't irony great

But I don't know Grantham that well... isn't it a railway town?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yep

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Canvey Island Independent Party

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bump

Sorry I've not been keeping this up to date; more analysis/predictions coming fairly soon.

As for the by-elections, the overall pattern is similer to when I last updated this; Labour are doing much better in these contests than they have for years (especially in Lincolnshire oddly enough) with the exception being most of Southern England.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've alwaysed loved the irony of Grantham being a Labour inclined town

What's ironic about that?
I don't get it.

It's where Thatcher grew up

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour are doing much better in these contests than they have for years (especially in Lincolnshire oddly enough)

I don't see why thats odd at all given the antics of some of the Conservative County councillors.

Good point

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have just lost another seat in Dacorum*. This is looking like a meltdown now...
Meanwhile we seem to have had some by-elections in a key marginal (The Wrekin) last night; Labour easily holding a very working class ward (with close to 65% of the vote) while the Tories picked up a ward off the Independents (Labour, who didn't run a candidate last time, polled about 22%).

*District Council in Hertfordshire. Contains Hemel Hempstead and Tring.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some more interesting results; Labour held a previously marginal ward in Kettering with over 60% of the vote (and a leap in % terms of about 11pts) and the LibDems had another bad night losing a ward in Penzance to the Tories after falling 18pts there, and nearly losing a ward in Herts to the Tories.

Amusingly George Galloway has just claimed that "Respect" will win seats in every local authority in the country... *sns*.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL!

The only appropriate answer!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Things are complicated by the fact that London only has all out elections (unlike the other Met. Counties which only do that after a rewarding;  for those of you who don't know what that means it's all three seats in each ward being up for grabs. Each voter has three votes etc. I'm not a fan) a fact that certainly helps them in Newham where they won't win any wards but should get enough votes to win some 3rd and maybe a few 2nd seats. I don't see them doing well in Hackney (not nearly enough Bangladeshis) but they might well pick up some 3rd seats in Camden (St Pancras has a large Bangladeshi population IIRC, which explains the strange swing against Dobson in the General Election)... but the main area of interest is Tower Hamlet o/c... and I won't even dare to predict how things will turn out there. You know that (as of May at least) there's no safe wards for any party in the whole borough? Crazy; racist Bangladeshis vote for Respect, racist whites vote for the LibDems, Yuppies vote for the Tories and whoever is left out by that (especially what's left of the Jewish community, which isn't much sadly) votes Labour... yes I'll certainly be posting lots of stuff on that borough over the next few months...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lets be honest, we won't see a truly national swing for a long time now, in any election. I agree that I hope the media gets this message.

There hasn't been one (at any level) since the '70's

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We have 19 councillers in Surrey? That many? How on earth did that happen?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think he meant, including lower-level councils inside Surrey.

I'd guessed that; 19 is still far more than I'd thought there'd be... I thought maybe 8 or so at the most.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

*tries to get head round this*

*head explodes*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They are probably base areas like council estates etc.

Very probably; still seems odd though

You must be logged in to read this quote.

True; although big parts of both (or is it just one?) of the two Tory divisions in Co. Durham used to be in Yorkshire (NR). Romaldkirk and all that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some interesting by-elections last week; Labour had good swing in an ultra-safe ward in Gateshead and picked up a seat from the Tories, on a large swing, in Thurrock while easily holding another in the same UA.
LibDems gained a seat in Hereford off the Indies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Labour have gained a seat off the LibDems in Oxford; Jericho & Osney, on a big swing. Greenies almost took 2nd place.

More details soon hopefully. There were probably some other results last night; will post when found. I reckon we'll see a notable Cameron bounce as Tory voters turn out slightly higher than normal.